|It's Better To Remain Weatherwise, than Otherwise,|
and such will be the case for some Floridians Early Next Week
TONIGHT: A very weak secondary frontal boundary associated with the same system that brought the rains/storms on Friday followed by the cool front which dried the air out and cooled everyone off to air conditioned temperatures last night....will skim by and down the coast thru the afternoon, reaching the Miami area around sunset. Ironically, although this is a secondary cold front from the same big storm system, it will warm the temperatures up along the East Coast over night tonight due to the wind shift off the ocean that will follow it. As such, little change tonight from that of last for most folks inland, whereas East side residents will awaken to less cool conditions Sunday morning with an ENE-E wind of 10-15mph perhaps.
ON SUNDAY: Could see some early day clouds, but subsidence behind the easterly winds during the afternoon courtesy of a somewhat modified east coast sea breeze should clear them out to the west while the lower atmospheric levels start to return to moist levels (higher dewpoints). Winds Sunday 10-15mph, perhaps with a few stronger puffs from the east as winds continue their trek around the clock from 2pm to 5pm...figuratively and literally. By days end winds will be ESE-SE as moisture levels increase. Noticeably warmer Sunday with highs in the lower 80Fs with coastal highs in the upper 70Fs north of Ft. Pierce along A1A.
MONDAY: A very potent storm system will be in progress across much of the Eastern United States which will first start to rear its head, perhaps in spotty fashion in the far South into Texas...but heading further North toward East Kansas and more so in Missouri and all across the Ohio Valley a true tornado threat will materialize. This system and associated frontal boundary will progress Eastward and morph into one giant Quasi Linear Convective System, more commonly referred to by those not into the details , a squall line. This line will contain all forms of convective modes, with tornadoes possible initially, but becoming less likely the further east that it pushes.
Locally, there is a very small chance of an afternoon shower or even a thunderstorm in dead Central Florida late Monday afternoon before sunset. Model guidance has swayed one way or another regarding this rain chance, but it has been fairly consistent that the Orlando area or thereabouts into Osceola County could get a storm or two which will move east with the setting sun, perhaps affecting the coast somewhere between Cocoa Beach to Daytona. However, the chance of said is very small, but not entirely impossible. The most likely scenario is that any rain should it happen to form will remain west of I-95 and fizzle from bottom up as it encounters the sea breeze. Meanwhile, winds on Monday will be from the SSE-S at 10-15mph with warmer temperatures and partly cloudy skies.
MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING: The aforementioned severe weather system (expecting severe storm reports in the 150-300 range, primarily from straightline winds/hail and some tornadoes) will be pressing into the Florida Panhandle along its southern most extent. The worst of this system will impact the area from Pensacola to Tallahassee, Panama City eastward toward Jacksonville and south toward Cedar Key to a St. Augustine or Ormond Beach line before the sun rises (western portions) and as it rises to the first hour or so after sunrise on the east side within a zone of continued severe category level conditions, although not nearly as potentially violent as those that will be felt much further to the north. As such, expect at least a portion of North Florida will be in a tornado watch before daybreak.
Tuesday morning further south will be very muggy with temperatures in the mid-upper 60Fs, becoming progressively cloudy after sunrise Central, not so much if at all far South Central and South Florida.
Basically, think of what Friday was like. Timing of this system appears will be very close to that storm system. With that, there is a chance that as the front pushes east and south it will be preceded by dark skies to your west and across the northern horizon. More storms could fire up pretty quickly within the first hour after sunrise Tuesday morning along and north of the Beach line west toward Tampa Bay, although the area around Brooksville might already be under the gun with some strong, possibly severe storms with any of the severe modes possible (strong wind, small hail, a tornado).
Conditions will deteriorate along dead Central Florida fairly rapidly between 8-9am and spread south with time while the Daytona area will have already been under the gun by this time.
It is uncertain at this time, with two more full days for models to hem and haw, to determine the storm strength south of Brevard County over to a South Tampa Bay line. Much is left to be determined in the synoptic scale, and this does not even assume some other solutions in regard to an outflow boundary sweeping south into Central and South Florida which would put a major kink in this forecast's timing issues already at play.
Brevard County south to Miami.
In regard to storm strength/intensity, believe the southern most limits of possible severe weather will be along a line from near New Smyrna Beach on the east side to near Bradenton on the west side. South of this line strong to marginally severe is possible from Central Brevard to Sarasota on the west side. South of that line strong storms are less possible over all of south Florida (but not entirely negligible), but a severe or two could occur over South Florida due to localized outflow boundary interactions and/or if the leading line of storms over Central Florida suddenly collapses and sends outflow rapidly south. Such events can seldom, if ever, be foreseen, but do be aware of this possibility. I can see this happening on Monday, more so than I could image it would happen last Friday, when wind fields remained strong aloft throughout the day. Winds may pull out early and allow the boundary to drop south, like the rug was pulled out from underneath it.
HOW WILL THIS SYSTEM COMPARE TO THE ONE LAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY?: For the most part, for folks south of Ormond Beach it won't even come close. Wind fields aloft are forecast to be significantly weaker by a wide margin that those of our previous event. Most folks may not even hear thunder with this system, whereas others could be very active in a few pockets about anywhere from North Central to South Central. The chances of strong activity further south becomes marginally less with distance toward South Florida when not accounting for any outside expected 'atmospheric accidents".
*SPECIAL NOTE: This system is still a few days away, so a lot could change between today and Monday night, so please do not take my post this morning as Gospel (does anyone anyway?)...Simply remain weather wary during the weekend. I'll be doing another post tomorrow of course, and at that time the situation will have been reassessed yet two more times before the next post is released. By tomorrow the timing of the system should be locked in pretty well, as should the anticipated strength of the storm system as it crosses North Central and South Central Florida. The main thing I'll be watching is North Central into parts of South Central, whereas in Southern Florida it appears that little will change other than whether or not showers/storms will break out well in advance early Tuesday afternoon as well as if an outflow boundary will race south into the area.
WILL IT GET COLD AFTER THIS SYSTEM?: Guidance initially indicated we could be in for a late season taste of winter in terms of very cool to near cold air, but have slacked off considerably in those regards (thank goodness). Winds will become onshore within 12 hours after the system clears each area, with onshore winds all areas by Wednesday after sunrise.