Storm Isaac is now over Eastern Cuba and is barely discernible except in visible satellite animations. This will be the case most of the day and into tonight until well past midnight when the center is expected to emerge in the waters of the Florida Straits north of Central Cuba. Fairly rapid organization is expected from this point and beyond as the storm moves between WNW-NW into the Keys during the day on Sunday.
Tropical storm conditions appear fairly certain for Palm Beach county - south and westward, perhaps as far north as Ft. Pierce, although a warning box is out as far north as Sebastian Inlet.
Further north, although winds can be gusty, at this rate they do not appear they will be unusually so. Rainfall will work up the coast and reach the area near 528/Port Canaveral by early afternoon and increase into the evening as the Storm begins to emerge into the Gulf and take its NW-NNW turn.
The latest GFS track with others model in tow is quite close to the Hurricane Center's forecast, and the GFS is quite adamant on nailing the Cape area of Brevard toward Port St. John, Cape Canaveral, Cocoa Beach, North Cocoa toward I-95, Merritt Island with some good rains, but the winds outside of squalls will not be anything beyond the "Anonymous No Name" of last October.
There is also a chance of tornadoes, especially land falling waterspouts along the east coast as the best wind shear will occur early Monday morning before sunrise through mid-afternoon near the beaches and rivers where frictional drag is minimized. The most instability during this time frame will be advected onto the shore from the warm Atlantic waters whereas land areas will not be able to destabilize under cloud cover. This is NOT to say the entire region across the peninsula will not be under a tornado watch, however, as models seldom if ever truly pick up on the rain bandings.
Best shear overall appears will be across the west half of the state toward Orlando, but whether the heavier squalls will reach here remains up in the air. But is so, crayola that area in if you wish.
This post is geared toward the line of thinking that the storm will wind to tightly after early afternoon for much of the turning motions required for rotating mini-supercells to hold fast during peak heating anyway.
Therefore, outside of this mere blog post, as always heed all statements transmitted by the National Weather Service and the Hurricane Center via Weather Radio and media outlets. Chances are, local TV Channels will be airing live coverage during the time frame from overnight Sunday and through much of Monday, so unless one loses electricity, the TV is a valuable asset to get a good visual on what is actually occurring as well as approaching any one area/location during these hours. Primarily for Central from 2pm Sunday through 2pm Monday.
The Tropical Cyclone appears could make landfall in the red box area as a minimal hurricane, at least measured above ground level. That is not to say the storm will not be dubbed a hurricane any time along the path from the Keys onward, but chances are many of the winds at that time of sustained hurricane strength will remain above the ground around 5000 feet.
BEYOND: Some trailing vorticity streamers and ample moisture as winds become more southerly to SSW could result in warm and muggy conditions Tuesday through Friday with a chance of showers and thunderstorms toward mainly the East Coast.
*** REFER TO ALL OFFICIAL STATEMENTS AND ADVISORIES. THIS POST
DOES NOT COVER ANY EXTRA MEASURES AND POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER CONDITIONS OTHER THAN WHAT APPEARS MOST OBVIOUS AT THIS TIME. THIS BLOG IS NOT A VALID SOURCE OF OFFICIAL INFORMATION****