"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Sunday, June 12, 2016

Pattern Shift From Past Days - Storms Possible Nearer I-95 - One or Two Could be Strong

"Morning Catch" at The Cocoa Beach Pier
TODAY: Mid - Upper Level Northwest flow with near zero easterly flow at the surface  of yesterday to start off this Sunday Morning appears will set up for a day most unlike that past several days. 

Colder air aloft as opposed to the past several days will be in place across I-10 and down the east side of the state toward Lake Okeechobee later today before shifting offshore in association with an upper level trough after sunset.

The GFS shows as an elongated vort max to ride down across or near what would be a sea breeze convergence boundary/zone might  which could ignite some healthier storms than of late  - so 'might get interesting'  in regions as noted in the image below.

One thing that could change the forecast for east siders would mainly be if anvil or rain/storm debris clouds  from the  'west side story' over-comes the unpolluted environment further east toward the Florida Turnpike/I-95 , stabilizing the atmosphere in those areas with cloud cover . 

Much of what occurs thus toward the east side today will not only depend on upper level energy and sea breeze convergence but what does or does not occur further west.

MONDAY - TUESDAY: Monday appears to be a bit similar to today but with lower PWAT over all, less steering toward the East Coast,  no apparent upper level trigger (vorticity) depicted in guidance nor apparent in satellite imagery, and warmer at 500mb than today. 

For now will ride with Isolated storms late closer to the spine of the state but more isolated and not as 'potentially' active as storms might be able to be today.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: In previous post it was mentioned perhaps some 'stronger storms' come  Tuesday/Wednesday time frame due to colder air aloft. The 'colder air aloft' is now not shown to arrive until the Thursday time frame which is fine; however, guidance implies winds at 2000 feet of 15 kts (and stronger above that) from a westerly component up and down the state which could mean no east coast sea breeze thus very few storms but rather rain showers moving off shore.

 If so, then the high temperatures late in the week along the east coast might be quite warm unless there is more cumulus cloud coverage to provide shade. 

Either way, pattern change is taking place today and will continue through Wednesday with each day being a forecast challenge.

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