"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Tuesday, April 26, 2011

A Few Showers Until Noon, Thunder Possible Late Afternoon-Early Evening

SUMMARY: Somewhat of a 'tropical warm front' went up the state this morning from South Florida and is now beginning to clear North Central Florida while washing out. The boundary brought higher dew-point air to mostly the coast considering it is loosely associated with the old Invest 91L's upper level features, which are well off to the east. Respectable rain showers were on the way very early this morning for the coastal communities, but only made it as far north as the Melbourne Beach area before collapsing, sending a 'cooling' outflow out in all directions and smuffing out all surrounding activity that was on the approach to the areas further north.

At sunrise, the atmosphere is recovering now with some large lightning storms well off the coast from Miami to East of Daytona and a few rainshowers reaching the the Space and Treasure Coasts.  A few renegade showers can still impact the east coast about anywhere until noon time until a more pronounced East Coast sea-breeze can develop after 1pm.

This afternoon:  Believe the East Coast Sea breeze will begin to kick in earnest at 10-15mph from the SSE-SE, whereas the west coast sea breeze will be slow at getting started until the prevailing SE winds and thier land breeze of the past 2 days begin to wane.  By mid-afternoon a diffuse west coast sea breeze under the prevailing westerly flow at the mid-upper levels will push toward the spine of the state, where it will be warming into the upper 80Fs to near 90F.  Rain showers and clouds will begin to clear the coast while cumulus form further west of the coast.

It appears a weak 500mb disturbance will approach the state from the NW by early afternoon today, reaching NW -far N Central Florida by mid-afternoon. As a result, some thunderstorms may begin to arise near the east side of the state from St. Augustine into Seminole Counties.  Meanwhile, mid-afternoon activity will be at hand from West of Miami Metro, Lake Okeechobee, to very close to West Palm Beach.  The storms over South Florida will form within a broad area of low pressure covering the South half of the state.  This activity could begin to collapse and send outflow into South Central Florida into the by then much heated and modestly unstable environment of Osceola and Orange Counties, as well ..or almost anywhere West of I-95 toward Southern Volusia County.

Net affect, the disturbance triggering off activity to the North of Central moving SE combined with the outlfow from the south might ignite the strongest storms of the day very close to Orlando Metro, the North Half of Osceola County, Seminole County, and SW Volusia.  This activity should move slowly east toward the coast after 6pm with the heaviest of impacts along I-95 to maybe US1 in Brevard and Indian River Counties from Titusville to Vero Beach.

Shown in green  is where there is the best chance of showers and thunder today. The area in South Florida should be thunder during the early-mid afternoon, whereas the area in red 'should' be later in the afternoon to early evening as moisture converges from the west with that already in place along the East Coast which will push inland afternoon noon time under a moderately unstable atomospheric environment

STORM NATURE TODAY: A lot of presumptions already, but it is possible some 1.5" rain amounts could accumulate in an isolated area over South Florida as well as near the Orlando Area by the time the day is through where rains linger the longest.  It is also possible that the immediate coastal areas will be heralded of the rains' approach by a cooling outflow, or gust front from the west, followed shortly by the rains, although at time it is questionable as to whether folks east of US1 in much of Brevard will truly experience the heaviest impact of the storms, assuming (again) that they do materialize. I'm faily sure that about 60% of the folks in East Central Florida will get some rain today though.  Rains could linger with the slow east ward push aloft toward the east coast until 9-10pm in a location or two along US-1 to A1A.

WEDNESDAY:  A totally different scenario tomorrow but one which at time seems to favor another chance of storms along the East Coast from North Central to South Central Florida (interior).  Doesn't look like we'll have any early morning shower activity, and the day will heat up very well. Expecting a broad corridor to heat up to the low to near mid 90Fs far interior tomorrow with coasts in the mid-upper 80Fs.  Since temperatures aloft tomorrow are not forecast to be as cold, I'm not expecting as strong as storms that COULD manifest today, but there are indications some stronger activity could be closer to the East Coast particularly from Brevard-St. Lucie Counties.  Much of the day the atmosphere will be capped with warmer air aloft, and it would take strong updrafts to break through. Could be more lightning tomorrow than what we will see today...but let's get today over worth and see what happens.

THURSDAY: Still on schedule for a  front to enter North Central Florida during the early-mid afternoon to reach Dead Central by early Friday.  Also, watching again as noted yesterday for some sort of 'pre-frontal' activity to form over Central/South Central which will be much stronger than the front itself, with potent thunderstorms mainly along and north of the Beach Line/Melbourne Cswy area. Would not be surprised to see a "Slight Risk' for Severe issued by the Storm Prediction Center for as far south as St. Augustine, or perhaps Daytona due to the dominant synoptic set up; however, if taking local affects and the timing of day into consideration  should the prefrontal boundary form over Central Florida, I'd throw in an additional slight risk for a  Melbourne to Orlando Line and north.

The  front is not forecast to reach Central until after sunrise Friday, so some early-mid morning showers are still possible near the coast before it completely washes out to nothing more than a wind shift until it reaches to near Boynton Beach-Ft. Lauderdale by early afternoon where some thunder could occur.

WEEKEND: Still looks nice with on shore flow.

Moisture looks to return from the South by late Monday, which might be 'activate-able" by Tuesday afternoon over the interior for showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm Central and South Florida.

(Disclaimer: All forecasts, graphic annotations, notions and musings are of the writer and not official. Consult official NWS Outlets if so desired).

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