"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Saturday, August 18, 2012

Early-Mid Afternoon Showers / Storms Again Today

As can be seen, showers and storms forming after 10AM Already moving toward the east. Best dynamics are from Daytona North, so although not noted in this image, there is a chance of stronger storms from DAB to JAX near the beach
TODAY: Model guidance of a few days ago did well in capturing the west to east storm steering winds to increase as is now indicated by morning sounding data and alluded to here previously. Winds at 2000 ft could permit the east coast sea breeze to form but remain east of US1 at best, if at all for that matter. Seriously questioning if it can do more than get as far as the eastern most barrier island at best and if even. 

Cloud cover could reduce differential surface heating once activity starts to build and cloud/anvil debris puts in crimp in the storm operative style, but it appears there will be time for a sea breeze from the Cape South,   barely. 

More likely from Sebastian or Vero and South. Otherwise, farther north an early morning 'boundary' made for a 'roll cloud' like feature to move across that area and it is now decaying toward the Cape. This feature could add fuel to storms near or just south of it, especially if the sea breeze can initiate. Thus, the South or Central Brevard area to Vero could be in for a good storm today. Otherwise, temperatures aloft are close to yesterday but seem to be a degree or two warmer in the mid levels so chances are all things will equal out for something potentially 'out of the norm' to occur like a funnel cloud as what occurred and photographed but an alert observer, but the strongest activity might end up occurring as the storms move offshore, especially from Melbourne and North of there, rather than on the land area. There is a chance the warming aloft might be temporary as well, so in other words, would not expect that graphic to be all it's made out to be...with coverage from JAX to MIA from weak to strong just about anywhere.

BEYOND: Same sort of set up through Tuesday, with the day's activities contingent upon what occurs if anything early on or even over night. Latest satellite imagery shows 4 distinct impulses rotating around the base of the trough centered from an upper level low near James Bay (of all places) from NE Colorado East South Eastward to Central Georgia. It is a very large trough cutting down the eastern third of the U.S. accompanied by a developing surface front with time, which could make it as far south as the Florida Panhandle before frontalysis takes place (decay).

As this does so, a low level ridge is forecast (now south of the state) to lift north with time by late week allowing sea breeze convergence type activity to form but continue to press toward the east side of the state into the weekend, next.

TROPICS: The GFS has a developing hurricane passing well to the east of Florida pegging coastal North Carolina, whereas the ECMWF shows two separate impulses developing in the eastern Caribbean, one which passes south of Florida and across the western top of Cuba, with the latter a bit further north  toward Puerto Rico on an east to ENE course. The GFS has been showing something that it depicts a somewhat similar for many days now, but the location and destination has been as questionable as a tourist figuring out which tourist trap it wants to head toward, will it be Nova Scotia or somewhere else. In any case, we will likely be hearing more and more about one if not two features in the next 7-10 days.

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