"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Wednesday, June 22, 2011

Storms Favoring Western Interior Late Afternoon through Early Evening

Depiction of current conditions with the sea breeze fronts and where it could shower or storm into the early evening from 1:15pm through 10pm.

TODAY:  The only change from yesterday is that the synoptic scale flow across the southern 1/2 of the state has become more southerly. The East Coast seabreeze took off last hour and is racing up the coast at breakneck speed. Otherwise, the West Coast seabreeze is moving very little, and from the looks of things this will continue to be the case for both boundaries.. All folks along and east of I-95 will be dry today with chances of showers and thunder increasing toward the Florida Turnpike and I-4 West of Orlando as the day (and boundaries) progress.  Showers should form during the afternoon as the East Coast sea breeze progresses westward and develop into eventually thunder after 4 pm from where either the East Coast seabreeze converges (meets) with the Lake Okeechobee breeze boundary ("The Shadow") or  when it nearly meets up with the West Coast boundary...but be of greatest wealth and health late this afternoon between 5:15pm - 8:00pm toward West Central Florida.

NORTH FLORIDA: North Florida at this time by all appearances looks much like it did at this time yesterday, but believe, that like yesterday, this area just might be able to 'squeeze water out of rock' as the sea breezes from both coasts approach each other during the early evening, especially just west of the St. John's River from near Ocala toward Gainesville southward toward I-4 into Lake County.  Any storms to form here should dwindle as soon as the rock is squeezed out as the sun sets.

NORTH CENTRAL: Best chance for storms looks to occur over Lake County then south and west from there toward the Tampa Bay area, including communities like Land-O-Lakes, Lutz, Brandon, and Bradenton/Sarasota.  There is a bit more moisture to start with over West Central Florida, so some of this activity might linger until 9pm or so.

THURSDAY: Tough forecast for Thursday. In general, there is a model consensus with increased moisture availability as well as shower/storm coverage of scattered storms over the interior eventually reaching the east coast, primarily north of the Brevard Coutny line, and remaining west of I-95 elsewhere. It gets very tricky in regard to weather Eastern South and Central Florida will receive rain at all (especially along I-95 and east of there), as the mid-level steering winds are not strong enough to overcome the stronger East Coast sea breeze.  It is very possible the at least the North half of Brevard could get some spittle at or after the sun sets and the sea breeze relaxes...or will at least become overcast.  

*** As a side bar: There has been indications that a 'big' rain/storm event could result during this transition period. Time and time again it has been proven that 'strange things' can happen during a change in what had been a prevailing pattern, and we have been in  a prevailing dry period for a few days now..and going to transition to much wetter (or at least one in regards to the atmospheric moisture content is concerned) pattern.  For instance, from time to time I've been seeing rainfall totals up to 3" inches somewhere around I-95 from North Central Brevard toward the Orlando/Sanford/SW Volusia County area for two days now. The area keeps getting highlighted by these models, but shifts around in regard to just where exactly the zone of contention lies. On the other hand, the GFS just brings all the moisture in as a 'fail swoop" generalizing a huge, vast expanse of 'showers' state wide (except for the barrier islands of Brevard and those located along and east of I-95 toward South Florida.  The reason for the discrepancy lies in just how long the pungent 700mb ridge holds on to the East Coast combined with a healthy east coast sea breeze forecast to form tomorrow afternoon which would essential prevent showers and storms from crossing this invisible barrier.   

FRIDAY/SATURDAY: Best chances for showers and early afternoon to mid-late afternoon thunderstorms. Perhaps a few could be heavy during initial onset of development, but with a generally uniform SSW-SW flow aloft, a lot of cloud debris remaining form the previous day's activity combined with late morning cumulus cloud development, the sea breezes might have a hard time actually meeting later in the day under only a marginally to moderately unstable atmosphere. Clouds/showers could linger throughout the evening just about anywhere whether it rains in any given location or not. Muggy overnights and less hot days...although the late morning toward noon time hours could be uncomfortably icky. BUT, we still have time to see what later guidance spits out. The GFS is going 'bonker nuts' with confusion even heading into only Monday depicting a wide variety of scenarios which could develop with each and every 6-hour run of the model.  The NAM, to give it credit despite its hyperactive shortfalls, has been more consistent lately.

SUNDAY/BEYOND: Looks like there will again be another pattern change sometime between late Sunday or Monday. One of showers forming almost right along the coast as well as inland transition to an ocean shower regime...still too sketchy to say noted in the previous paragraph.

BEST THING IS: It looks like this upcoming pattern could put a nice dent in the drought conditions..which might mean relaxing the water restrictions and eliminating the potential cancellation of fireworks exhibitions for the 4th of July.

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