Synopsis: Looks like the pesky surface low/bubble has actually worked on shore and is now located between St. Augustine and Ormond Beach this morning. Water vapor loop shows a 'd
ry' slot of air moving into the Florida Big Bend south to the Tampa Bay area moving east about 10-15mph. KSC sounding showing higher precipitable values than yesterday at this same time and we have thin cirrus clouds overhead. Winds aloft are more predominately SW thru the column, but of such light value it holds little weight or bearing for today's weather outcome. The same cap as yesterday morning is also in place; however, the convective temperature is a full 10 degrees lower than yesterday which proves to be a challenge for determining shower initiation timing. Drainage down the peninsula, while yesterday seemed to stop at the north edge of the Big Lake, seems to have made it the whole down to the southern tip of the state. All given, it's almost synonymous with "yesterday" as it's as stable as all get out to start the day. Who cares anyway, it's morning. Elsewhere, a mid-level low is now rotating in place along the north/central coast of Cuba with currently no direct impact on the Space/Nature/Treasure Coasts.
Today: The drier air mentioned above if it reaches the east coast, based on timing, won't arrive until 5pm which will be after convective initiation. In fact, it may aid in moisture convergence along the sea-breeze at just the perfect time in the mid-late afternoon to get things going. Due to the light, albeit somewhat uniform steering currents along with the hint (stressed) of a nudge from impending drier air may nudge precipitation a notch closer to the coast (yesterday it made it as far east as the Banana River in Canaveral and over parts of the Space Center).
It is interesting that some showers and a storm have gone up near Tampa despite the aforementioned 'drier' air shown in water vapor analysis (apparently that drier air is not at all the levels required to suppress shower formation). So all things given:
Today: With less cloud coverage this morning but with very stable air initially, expect that pre-noon rains will be hard to come by, or very isolated in nature if they do form...which could be about anywhere, and given that heating may occur fairly quickly today under such light, moisture laden flow...could see a funnel along the coast (most likely off shore). Sea-breeze initiation will be at or shortly before the text book time of 11-12pm. True storm formation to begin after 2:30pm. In going with persistence today, expect earliest activity to initiate closer to the closed circulation in or near Flagler County then propagate south along the sea-breeze as far as the East Central Coast of the state is concerned that is.
Elsewhere, activity might get a slightly later start today down by the Big Lake, but it assuredly will..particularly along the south shores initially. The Tampa area might be a bit suppressed today yet still, with the morning activity being the only show in town until late when the back edge of the dry slot has passed and they are back in the juice (and other storms have already formed and propagated basically "all over the place in random fashion").
Pinpointing an exact location where heavy rains and dangerous lightning will occur today is a nearly impossible prospect to attempt...so use the noggin' and look at the sky every once in a while. Don't wait for that first thunder to send yourself running for cover either. If those cloud bases are big and black..the first bolt can be one's last. It's fun until it happens to you...KABLAM!!