"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Tuesday, January 19, 2016

Very Cool to Cold Through Sunrise Wednesday - Rain/Storms on Friday Afternoon

Coldest East Coast Morning in Quite Some Time - 43.8F on Location
 TODAY: As advertised, we've entered the coldest 24 hour stretch today since last winter with another cold to colder start some locations on Wednesday morning. NW wind today becoming north late and decreasing late in the day with highs in the mid-upper 50Fs except in the lower-mid 60Fs closer to and south of Lake Okeechobee. Cirrus clouds should be falling south slowly but surely with time with Central and North being all but cleared out or nearly so by sunset or shortly thereafter

TONIGHT: Decreasing wind as high pressure passes to the north of the state. Very Dry! Dewpoints are expected to fall potentially below 20F in some interior/western locations. Large temperature spreads by daybreak from immediate coast near Cape Canaveral and south through The Keys vs west of I-95.

WEDNESDAY: Possibly colder than this morning in some locations but less wind. Tomorrow morning looks like an Agricultural or temperature forecasters nightmare. With such low dewpoints how low can it go and for how long? Will there be enough moisture for a potentially damaging frost especially Interior North Central to down along Route 27 possibly as far south as northern Polk County? Probably not a big threat - but it will be interesting to see what occurs overnight tonight down the spine of the state and toward the west a bit. The other fly in the ointment is if higher clouds start to creep back north again as far north as Dead Central. It's going to be close on the frost forecasting end tonight it sure appears but suspect we'll be hearing about it..especially toward Western Orlando , North Tampa Bay area and then all areas further north.

Otherwise, immediate beach ( as in near A1A ) and east thereof and south to Miami through the Keys will be the warmest locations. Beaches of Brevard for example might be similar to this morning but by first appearance might be nearly 5F or more degrees warmer than this morning. It'll be tight though. 

Temperature just in from the coast rapidly falls out in the drier air. Air nearest the beaches might be feeling the effect of impending onshore flow and rapid air mass modification waiting in the wings right after sunrise. It'll all come down there to the location of high pressure to the north at the time of sunrise.

Wednesday afternoon warmer with highs 7-10F degrees warmer than today. Mainly lower to mid 60Fs.

THURSDAY: Warmer yet still all locations morning through sunset with highs in the mid-upper 60Fs with much increased moisture across the boards. Next storm system approaches as it builds momentum. Another Jet Streak dropping south from Canada along the Rockies takes the turn over Northern Texas and points toward Florida as the Southern Jet Streak's tail end continues across the state in El Nino fashion..

FRIDAY: Cold front approaches for what appears ATTM (at time) as a mid-afternoon arrival over Central Florida. Moisture return is shown to increase quickly overnight Thursday through time of front's arrival as the Two Jet Streaks start to merge nearly right over the state. Warm with highs in the 70Fs.

Friday's system will in no  way carry the weight of the previous system in regard to directional wind shear, though they winds aloft will get strong down to the 10.000 foot level they will be 'nearly' unidirectional (from the same direction) with height. So far using the NAM as the worst case scenario, though GFS will likely come in with much less dynamics at play especially in regard to CAPE (instability). Hard to see how much deep moisture could return so quickly as what the NAM alludes to (as of this morning at least).

Given the latest NAM, the forecast blog scenario is as follows for a brief window of opportunity.. or might say, 'window of misfortunality'...for strong storms across Central Florida if the timing doesn't change on the fronts arrival time.

 Otherwise, rain showers still likely in many areas which could carry some very gusty winds (which suspect might end up being what occurs anyway)

BEYOND: Quick frontal passage with strong wind behind the boundary through Saturday. Suspect we might be hearing about Lake Wind Advisories.

Saturday morning cold but how cold? Latest GFS implies a cloud deck wraps in at the lower mid-levels behind the front as a now full blown low pressure system slides up the U.S East Coast. The same low that is already putting the folks along the Mid-Atlantic to the Eastern Northeast States in a dizzy with the snow forecast expectancies. 

The main effect being a very cold, windy, and cloudy day with highs in the 50Fs but the cloud deck in regard to the morning hours would prevent lows from bottoming out as much as could be (assuming there will be said cloud deck).

SUNDAY: Could be even colder than today by several degrees. Jury is still out, but the GFS last came out showing upper 30Fs even for the east coast north of Sebastian Inlet with a bitter wind chill. This too might well change though given how far out in time we've come (Extended) by now.

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