"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Sunday, August 16, 2009

Sunday, August 16 (9:40am) (NWS click)

Lightning flash photo taken with my camcorder. The map (click to enlarge) is my best guess for enhanced tornado threat. The cat is Lola, my soul mate :-)
TODAY: Not much to say really. We have everything against us today. This morning East Central Florida lies within two regions of subsidence - to the east of now Tropical Depression 4 and to the west of an approaching TUTT low. Atmosphere has dried considerably since yesterday and winds in the mid-levels are unidirectional out of the south with very light jet stream winds above that. In short, there's nothing going for us today to generate storms if even a rain shower. Only a very remote chance of something weak inland after 3pm, but even that might be generous.

TROPICS: : Watching TS Ana and Bill. Current projected path has them heading toward C. Florida at this time then curving either south a tad and across the Florida straits..or northward toward Bermuda. being absorbed by the other. Therefore, I'm not even going to touch that right now and here's why. I'll confidently say that it's unrealistic to make a forecast for such, and thank goodness this is only a blog so I don't have to come off sounding confident to the General Public about something that inside I know no one can realistically know . Granted, I could take a best guess (and I do have one), but chances are if you are reading this you've already heard your share. The mid-long range tropical systems' direction and intensity forecasts from the various models varies significantly both between models and within the specific model's run cycles; therefore, I will not provide "speculation" on these systems until such time it becomes feasible.

I will provide speculation though on TD4. Whether it will strengthen into a named storm is very iffy and impertinent because the net affect is the same whether it has a name or not, but I do think it will become a storm by mid-afternoon. There will be a slightly enhanced tornado threat in the area I have marked in the image above and in maybe a larger area as the evening progresses as well as an enhanced flash flooding threat, paricularly in Alabama along the storms path and just to the east of that into western Georgia.

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