"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Friday, April 29, 2016

Isolated Storms Interior Central/South Central Late Today

Roseate Spoonbill - Cape Canaveral Thursday Morning
TODAY: A slight increase in low level moisture will result in a bit more surface based CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) combined with cold air aloft for some isolated showers and eventually a few thunderstorms (isolated) at and just prior to sea breeze collisions over the interior to Western Interior late afternoon into the early evening. A storm could be strong Western Osceola County or eastern Polk Counties. Otherwise, warm once again with some lower 90Fs far interior counties and lower-mid 80Fs closer toward the immediate east coast.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY: Looks like decreasing overall moisture at this point will result in little change other than less chance of rain showers 'All Quads" except maybe   well north of I4 to North Florida. Continued near to just above normal temperatures. Rain chances do not appear would be zero but at this point to low to bother with speculating as to just exactly where rain might fall.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: Repeated frontal onslaughts across the Central and Northeast part of the country will eventually erode the ridge, which in the mid levels at times will end up nearly right over Florida this weekend , allowing for a more south to southwest flow aloft to develop, especially late Tuesday and all day Wednesday.  It is on these days that much needed rainfall will have a chance to occur as convective showers and/or thunderstorms; some could be strong in isolated fashion though watching either Tuesday or Wednesday for perhaps a better chance of them being 'merely' isolated in nature. With steering more from a westerly component through the column one of both days are the best chances for the east coast to see some rains.

BEYOND: Trailing frontal boundary will not have a direct affect on the temperature regime, only indirectly by the surface wind direction directly off the Atlantic with drying conditions in typical early May fashion. All in all this will mean a return to dry conditions once again for the east coast (the west half of the state has been seeing some showers and a few lightning storms the past few days, though from the east coast one would have never known that to be the case, even by looking at the sky this activity has not even been visible to the distant west).

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Thursday, April 21, 2016

Best Rain Chance for Remainder of April 'May' End Up Being on Friday

"Roseate Spoonbill - Cape Canaveral" 

TODAY; Status quo with onshore breeze today from the east. Latest visible satellite imagery shows a somewhat organized line of north/south oriented low level cumulus rapidly approaching Eastern parts of North Central as of 1PM . The line at time was about 80 miles off shore. It will be interesting to see if that line of clouds is associated with a 'wind surge' or uptick of wind strength if it makes it to the coast  which, if so,  would occur some time between 2-3PM. Otherwise, dry other than maybe some spotty showers inland mainly later today.

TONIGHT-FRIDAY: Wind will eventually begin to turn more southerly overnight as a weakening cold front moves into the Southeast U.S. Latest GFS has been consistent with past several runs and broad-brush coverage of light rain mainly chances beginning early afternoon over much of the state but earlier on parts of far Southeast Florida and much of the panhandle. 

Several runs of the NAM and GFS both have showed some decent low to mid level Positive UVV (upward vertical motion) though mid-level lapse rates were showing to be fairly meager. Regardless, best chance of low level convergence in the presence of 'some CAPE' with cold air aloft might warrant a thunderstorm chance almost anywhere along the Panhandle but moreso along the  Florida east coast, especially from Brevard County Northward.  SPC has a 'Marginal Risk ' penciled in for the Panhandle tomorrow as a side-bar note. 

Was tempted to put in 'isolated strong possible along the east coast but lack of higher CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy ) values put the damper on that call, at least for this day's post.

Otherwise, chance of a period of EITHER increased cloud cover to overcast or light to moderate rain , even a thunderstorm. This would be desirable though considering we are about at the peak of the Dry Season and the fact that the long range GFS is not even at this point pretending that it could rain for another week going into the first couple of days of May. 

Temperatures throughout the period appear  will continue to be running near normal (though mornings  a bit above normal for this time of year ).

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Friday, April 15, 2016

Chance of Strong /Iso-Severe Mainly South Central - South Later Today

Storm Tops Over Fellsmere Yesterday as Viewed From Cape Canaveral -
Storm Produced Severe Sized Hail of 1"  

TODAY: Colder than usual air aloft once again in place with sufficient bulk shear in the upper levels as anticipated. On the other hand, a bit more cloud cover is in place and surface based instability unlikely to be quite as strong as anticipated it would be today from yesterday. Atmosphere is not 'over moist' but moist enough to provide the impetus for isolated strong to severe storms. 

A few 'playing it as it goes' factors might be at hand even now. Showers/small storms well off the coast of the Cape appear to have set off an outflow boundary working east-west very close to Canaveral...where another east-west boundary appears off the west coast at nearly the same latitude. If these two boundaries 'outline' a secondary 'frontal boundary' it is too early in the day to say for certain but a line running from near Canaveral to MCO south and west into Polk County appears to be the northern most extent of any 'stronger' activity today, mainly inland if this is a faux-boundary emanating from yesterday's departing system. Several reports came in with severe sized hail, mainly in Polk County but also one in Indian River County

Further south is at time where the stronger storms seem most likely. Mainly Southern Osceola, Indian River, Okeechobee, Martin, St. Lucie, and Northern Palm Beach County.  

Again, the boundary which appears might come into play later today runs from near Canaveral to Tampa; on the other-hand, most guidance implies it might sink south toward a Sebastian to Sarasota line later in the day, so will be interesting to see how things evolve late in the afternoon through early-mid evening in that area if in nothing more than the rainfall category.  

SATURDAY; Rain chances continue on Saturday.  Otherwise, cloudier sky conditions on Saturday with mainly showers except some isolated thunder mainly just off shore South Central and South, but no matter where, coverage of 'thunder' looks much lower tomorrow, even over South Central/South (wherever that might end up occurring).

Otherwise from later Saturday through around Wednesday breezier on shore flow until around Thursday and especially Friday. So far late week into next weekend indicates we might see once again an up-tick in storm chances with some strong but too soon to say with any certainty.

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Thursday, April 14, 2016

Chance of Shower/Iso-Thunder Mid-Afternoon through Dark / Strong - Near Severe Possible Friday

"Sunrise - Cape Canaveral Thursday April 14"
TODAY: After some morning low clouds, sufficient heating and ample instability, though not plentiful, combined with moisture and sea breezes should be sufficient with cold air aloft to allow some convective shower activity and even some thunder (more likely later in the day) to occur mainly near and south of 

Given the morning KSC Sounding which shows steering easily from the WNW-NW at 15kt at 850mb all the way up to near 50kts at 20,000 ft and cold air as well, a bit surprised models are not showing for stronger storms but surface based instability looks rather weak today (per models at least).

 Therefore, wouldn't be all too surprised if even a stronger storm could get going under the right conditions. The Convective Temperature was only 83F with a Cap strength of 1 ...but with only 1.46" of precipitable water availability, activity will remain a bit isolated. Again a strong storm is possible today especially near to east of I-95 if the west coast sea breeze manages to work east far enough late in the day to interact with the east coast sea breeze in an area that remains 'unpolluted' from earlier in the day activities., though all in all at this time of day (10:45AM) nothing beyond showers and maybe thunder is foreseen for the time being).

FRIDAY: Similar conditions with some bonus points. Even colder air aloft on Friday and more surface based instability. Given that situation might look for strong to potentially isolated severe storms due to 1" or larger hail and wind  gusts nearing 60 mph. The Storm Prediction Center has a large area similar to the map above for tomorrow traced out in a "Marginal Risk"...(with contingencies for a possible 'upgrade' to 'Slight Risk"); but until tomorrow comes, best ride with the SPC call.  

SATURDAY: Another chance of rain and cloud cover this day , but not sure the thunder wording needs to be emphasized just yet. Though then again of South Florida might need to watched but first to get through Friday.

SUNDAY-BEYOND: Thunder and shower chances quickly dwindle but re-emerge toward next weekend. No big changes in temperature are foreseen. A period of more brisk northeast wind though could come about but other than some breezier conditions nothing beyond seasonal norms looks to be in the cards.

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Wednesday, April 6, 2016

Chance of Showers Late / Maybe Thunder Over Night - Then Dry for Quite Some Time

A Little ' Messy in the Bloom'  for this Busy Body

TODAY: Breezy easterly flow today will become more southeast to south and eventually southwest into Thursday. Comfortably moderate temperatures otherwise.

NOW - THURSDAY MORNING: A few showers along far Southern Tip of state from leading edge of a band of moisture as seen in visible satellite image (below) . This moisture will wrap around the western fringes of high pressure and work north and eventually toward the east side of the state possibly as far north as I-4 overnight into early Thursday morning.

Latest guidance shows quite a bit of bulk shear in the mid levels and NAM shows ample helicity from surface to 3km that might keep shower activity going if not even thunder under the presence of cold air aloft (though suspect most guidance might be a little over done). 

Latest RAP/GFS/NAM all show shower activity though at least as far as Brevard County /Volusia line after dark possible anytime from around 9pm - 6AM Thursday morning with some continued cloud cover into at least to mid-morning. Given some of the parameters included the remote chance of thunder toward the East Coast of namely Brevard/Indian River Counties as a starter though discussion all refer to any potential remaining off the coast over the Gulf Stream .

THURSDAY - FRIDAY: More than one frontal boundary will be passing down the state in the next 3 days so will not get into timing of said boundaries as they will go through more than likely 'dry' and near 'backdoor types' as the previous front did. Most will not be aware of a frontal boundary that went through yesterday (for example). Thursday should be warmer than today with wind  from the Southwest  ..and again cooler Friday morning due to westerly morning winds most noticeable toward the east coast.   Friday though a cool start but nothing much cooler than recent days with a north wind even still will again be warm with highs in the mid-70Fs to lower 80Fs mainly away from the coast.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY: This period will be  cooler 24/7 with northerly winds eventually becoming northeast to east with time. Appears two fronts to go through during this time but nothing too unusual   . It has appeared that the period from Saturday through Sunday mid-morning will be the coolest time frame altogether though.

BEYOND: Not much to speak of other than a slow warm up to normal but very dry . We 'might' (emphasis) be entering a 'pre-wet season dry slot' that has occurred in the past outside of a few random days of sea breeze convergence cloud cover or rain showers. Most years later in April never fails to disappoint with a good storm or two, though very isolated. The same often holds true for May. Time will tell.

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Saturday, April 2, 2016

Keeping an Eye on North Central Parts Today for Stronger Storms , Cooler Sunday Onward

TODAY: Frontal boundary and associated dynamics working south with time this morning as satellite and radar images below indicate . 

Satellite imagery reveals that there is  'no action' after the tail end of what is seen on radar. Latest guidance appears to indicate the main core of energy will pull off to the east before the line works much further south than I-4.

Given the timing of day into Central Florida however combined with the amount of shear that will still be present  have, for blog purposes,  included parts of Central into perhaps a 'strong wind chance' if per chance a thunderstorm can get going or even keep going as the boundary approaches from the north and west. Otherwise breezy at times and especially near and in times of rainfall.

Increasing cloudiness as the day whereas on and as the clouds are even closing in on all parts of North Central before sunrise. Once it moves in that area will be socked in for the day mainly south of I4. Warmest temperatures as a result will be along a line from near Ft Pierce toward Sarasota and south.

Area of  possible thunder might be overly generous as mainly thinking won't see much activity south of Brevard or perhaps Indian River County, but funny things can happen during to just after peak heating so will leave be as shown (below)

BEYOND: Wind shifts to northerly and drying commences as boundary works south producing some lighter shower activity toward South Florida tonight but all in all it appears the front is now forecast to proceed south faster than thought with a 'fropa'  (frontal passage) before midnight across Central nearly 9 hours earlier than presupposed on Friday.

Wind breezy around 15-22mph on Sunday from the north to north- northeast and gradually weakening over Sunday night into Monday. 

Cool mainly away from the coast in the morning  (50Fs inland) but all locales in the afternoon compared to recent days. Though another front approaches in the Thursday time frame it does not appear at time that it will have much impact in the 'storm' category and it too looks to bring even cooler air. Looks like overall we are going backward in the season change to more of a late winter mode and dry for quite some time to come after late week especially if the next front goes through dry.

Next front then that might have a more immediate 'influence' in regard to storm and/or rains is around the April 13 - 14th time frame. 

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Friday, April 1, 2016

Pecking at Very Warm Today - A Shower and Perhaps Thunder Near/ East of I95 Late Afternoon

Pecking Away at the Next Forecast in Canaveral
TODAY: Very warm for this time of year today and perhaps tomorrow though record high temperatures might be out of reach for most locales other than the Daytona Beach area.

Regardless, wind SSW to SW but not pressure  gradient not tight enough to restrain the east coast sea breeze from making inland progress. Warmest temperatures to be away from the immediate beaches but they too might attain a mid-80F reading previous to onset of the sea breeze, most unlikely though toward the A1A strip . 

Outflow 'Shelf-ish' Feature Approaches Shore Thursday Morning From an Ocean  Shower
Humid for this time of year, with a cumulus field developing after patches of early day 'low level clouds' which might be present in some areas burn off around sunrise  .

Best chance of showers east of Rte 27 which would move east and northeast,  with highest instability originating in SW Florida but working east and north during the day. 

This combined with the 'Lake Shadow' effect and east coast sea breeze within 20 miles of the east coast (supposedly) might make for things to come together for thunder toward the immediate coast later in the day (but very isolated if so). So far not geared toward a 'strong wording' at this time of the morning (6:30AM) other than for the Panhandle region. Any showers will quickly dissipate after loss of daytime heating (by to just after sunset).

SATURDAY: Increasing cloudiness and continued warm as cold front approaches. The SPC (Storm Prediction Center based in Norman, Oklahoma) has put all of Central and North Florida in a 'Marginal Risk" for the chance of organized severe weather though at time despite better wind fields to support this idea suspect that high clouds will limit surface based instability in the presence of lack of better low level forcing except closest to the front proper. Best chance for such would thus remain closer to I-4 timing wise in conjection with best afternoon heating (north) but much depends on timing of the boundary and if possible, outflow  from earlier rain-cooled activity across North Florida which should be ongoing in limited fashion perhaps even at sunrise on Saturday across the Panhandle.

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY: Front to sever the state around 4- 7AM with much cooler air (for several days) to follow with north to northeast and eventually easterly winds taking hold.  Cloudiness and some patches of light rain might be present toward sunrise Central working south into late morning. 

The Coast won't see anything cooler than the lower to mid 60Fs for the most part by Monday but cooler inland. Afternoon highs though will be much cooler for 2-3 days (until around Thursday).

Next front brings rain chances back in the late Thursday/Friday time frame and the GFS trend is for the air behind it to be even cooler that the one that is now slowly making its approach with some wide spread lower to mid 50Fs..but won't jump on that bandwagon whole-heartedly just yet.

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