"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Sunday, March 27, 2011

Spring Showers/Storms (Some Quite Strong) Possible Late Today - Friday

Image acquired from the NWS Melbourne, Fl. website (Impact Weather). I've added in the red circled area to address rainfall chances/a storm or two to be addressed in the text below under "Today/Tonight"

TODAY: Pleasantly warm to 'hot' this afternoon with a SW wind of 10-20mph this afternoon. As we can see from the graphic image above from the NWS MLB web-link (Impact Weather), they are thinking the same concerning the warmth. Additionally, model guidance does show some subsidence this afternoon conducive for compressional heating. On a side note, The Weather Channel is showing Orlando to reach 96F today. This warmth will assuredly send spring breakers and non alike to the beach today, so watch those rip currents if venturing in the water.

LATE TODAY/OVERNIGHT: Chance of rain or a storm can be thrown in beginning late this afternoon for the east side of North Central  north of SR520.  The NAM model is showing a thunderstorm for the North Half of Brevard County between 3-5pm, but is probably jumping the gun.  There is a slug of energy as shown in the image above (circled area in red) over the GOM, moving east and toward the peninsula. But do not believe it will arrive until late this evening toward midnight, so wouldn't be surprised to see some lightning and/or hear thunder during the overnight from Cocoa Beach/Melbourne  to just north of Daytona, Rain chances then cover more real estate toward morning...(but read on in the following paragraph for additional thoughts).

MONDAY: First off, The Weather Channel is showing 80% chance of rain/storms, some severe, on Monday.  This is in line with my thinking on Friday, but I don't see it quite that vigorous as of 10AM this Sunday morning. The moisture will be here for rains, but feel  instability might be minimized due to antecedent cloud coverage early in the day due to the overnight rainfall potential (precluding greater thermal instability). However, should Monday morning break at only partly cloudy and remain so, Monday afternoon cold pan out as forecast by The Weather Channel "experts'.

The other thing to consider is that TWCs 'severe' might be referring to overnight tonight going into Monday morning (regarding the system mentioned in the preceding paragraph).  Rain chances decrease significantly south of Martin County, but not entirely so. In other words, heightened awareness should be made by Central Florida readers later today per your favorite local media outlet(s). Could be a bit crazy tonight (Sunday night to very early Monday morning)  across North Central/Central Florida. Not expecting a tornado threat, but if these storms develop as some guidance indicates for cold temperatures aloft, the primary threat would be minimally sized severe category hail (up to 1").

TUESDAY/BEYOND: Frontal boundary on Monday is forecast to sink to Central Brevard County, perhaps North Brevard, before washing out. This is a bit different from Friday's outlook, which took the front well down to the South. Either way though, by Tuesday afternoon a new boundary reappears across Far North Central Florida by mid-late afternoon which was the case previously either way. Otherwise, things aloft change very little. By late afternoon/early evening storm re-develop is forecast from Central and Southeast Florida.  Expect that any storm 'could' be strong, with small non-severe sized hail.  However, this is at least one day heading toward the weekend where the atmosphere will need to "Lock-n-ReLoad". This time frame will be noticeably quite compared to any active weather that might occur previously, and before we're ready to shoot another round of ammo.

Note: Even beyond Monday the forecast becomes increasingly convoluted due to model discrepancies, so will not divulge into intricate details since they will change. Either way though, and has been mentioned for a few posts now, the pattern remains unsettled through at least Friday (this might be extended).  However, they are coming to better agreement that "Something More Wicked This Way Comes" going into late week (late Wednesday through late Friday time frame).

As of this morning, the worst case scenario mentioned in my previous post would be for a late Friday afternoon/evening (April Fool's Day) storm system composed of some sort of a QLCS convective system remains in the pickins. This has been shown to occur on the synoptic scale for nearly a week now. The timing is narrowing down to a time-frame now, but exactly how things will manifest as well as the timing will remain aloof probably up until a good 24 hours before the actual event.  And of course, these events almost never unfold exactly as one expects them too. But for now, heads up heading toward Thursday and be 'weather aware".  Before that time, much needed rains over the driest spots in Florida is anticipated.  Don't think anyone will be rain free by Saturday morning.  Heavy totals are expected right across Central Florida Thursday into Friday, with other big numbers (not as big) for the now drought stricken southern portion of the state.

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