"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Thursday, August 5, 2010

Rain Chances For The Eastern Florida Coast Improve A Bit

After a few blog days off figured I'd dig in to a 'forecast' for the next few days as things look a bit more interesting for the next few days. The mid-long range models have been depicting the upcoming scenario to unfold for a couple of days and they are coming to fruition as I write. Details to follow below. Otherwise, the insane heat over parts of Alabama, Mississippi, and Tennessee (to name a few) might come to an end for maybe two days as a front in this region will increase cloud coverage and storm activity.  I noticed the past two days that a few isolated locales in Tennessee had heat indices exceeding 120F degrees...UGH.
SYNOPSIS: Trough of low pressure and associated cold front is digging SSE-ward along the U.S. eastern seaboard this morning and will continue to do so through Friday. There was a tornado warning for a spot in Connecticut this morning ahead of the front, and active weather from New England, Pennsylvania, New York and into Virginia, Kentucky, and Tennessee will experience additional activity as the front moves in.  As such, a ridge of high pressure that has been north of the area has shifted sufficiently south to now be located almost directly overhead Central Florida late this Thursday morning. By this evening...the ridge should be located somewhere between Sebastian-Vero Beach along the east coast and over Tampa Bay on the west coast. Steering winds will be close to nil...but assume a slight S to N or even SSW-NNE component somewhere around sunset this evening.
TODAY: East and west coast sea breezes should have no problem developing during the mid-late morning hours and progress inland from both coasts. With plentiful moisture in the atmosphere coupled with the normal summer instability with heating of the day rain showers and thunderstorms can form anywhere just west of the coast from Brevard south to Miami where sea breeze/lake/outflow boundaries interact..more likely near the coast the further south one goes earlier in the day, particularly south of Ft. Pierce. By mid afternoon most of the activity will be located along and west of I-95 except down around the Lake region where a Lake/sea breeze interaction is possible along the north and northeast shores of the Lake.
Late afternoon is somewhat up for grabs. As the aforementioned ridge is forced further south a more south to north or even a bit toward the east steering flow could develop as inland storms' outflow keeps interactions pinned along or even just east of the I-95 corridor, especially from Melbourne and points north into Volusia and Flagler Counties. The result might be some storm debris showers or just cloudiness as we head toward sunset over the A1A corridor...better than nothing.
FRIDAY: We should start out with a land-breeze right on the coast tomorrow morning with the surface ridge axis up through 700mb located south of Brevard County. Gradient flow won't be strong enough to overcome a slightly delayed sea breeze by around noon the coast could warm up just a bit more in the late morning time frame before the sea breeze comes in. Steering will again be from south to north or even a bit toward the NNE-NE throughout the day. Thus, like today...the coastal communities, especially those north of Sebastian and more so further north into Volusia County could actually experience a full bore thunderstorm anytime from mid-late afternoon.  Also, some late morning-early afternoon thunderstorms could form along the sea breeze boundary along the US1-I95 corridor from Titusville and points south. I'd say at this point that Friday will be the best chances for the immediate coastal communities like Cape Canaveral, Cocoa Beach, Satellite Beach, and Indian Harbor beach to get truly measurable rainfall and some lightning.
SATURDAY-MONDAY: Trough of low pressure to the north...somewhere around Central Georgia on its southern most extent...begins to get more diffuse as high pressure builds SSE from the northern Plains region into the Mississippi River Valley region.  The ridge of high pressure over south Florida also becomes more diffuse...this places Central Florida in a very light, ambiguous wind pattern aloft leaving the door open for inland boundary interactions to the be sole focal point for afternoon convection, although late morning to just post-noon time activity along the intracoastal waterways will be possible as well with the westward moving sea breeze as it moves in. The GFS is hinting at an inverted trough moving in from the east on Monday which would greatly enhance rainfall potential for all of the east coast of the state...for now this will just be monitored for possible development as I see no reason for this to occur at this time.
TUESDAY-THURSDAY:  The trough of low pressure over the southeast states will be gone as the high pressure to our south or nearly overhead builds north of Central Florida placing most of the South and Central Florida in a SSE-SE to NNW-NW steering flow.  It's getting to be that time of year where we can start to include coastal morning showers into the equation. I've noticed that for several days the NAM and GFS have been implying showers along the east coast from Brevard and points south should have occurred, but this has yet to actually happen until this morning.  So we might be on a new trend here which will be worth watching.
Should this climatological aspect of the mid-late summer rain cycle indeed begin...these showers normally occur between the hours of 4am-9am into late September given favorable conditions exist for such to occur.

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