"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Thursday, June 6, 2019

Wet Pattern Emerging Today - Strong Storms Possible Saturday-Monday (?)

On This Date, 2018, large Rainfall totals occurred in parts of Brevard County, Including Cape Canaveral

Localized street flooding

TODAY: Not necessarily expecting a day like 'last year on this date', but rain chances for many areas Central to East Coast will be on the 'up tick' today, and more so in days ahead.

Not much change from previous post, as a mid-upper level low pressure area (a complex one) along with the surface features is only but now gathering its 'wits and steam' over parts of North Central Oklahoma southward toward the lower Mississippi River Valley Basin region, including parts of Southern Alabama and Mississippi.

 In coming days the area of low pressure will shift east and further south, fully displacing any prospects of a dominant Western Atlantic High Pressure ridge over the state, with an  increasing cyclonic flow/circulation over the state come the weekend as Florida comes fully into the localized affects of this aforementioned complex system.

With increasing southerly flow today through multiple lower levels of the atmosphere into the mid-levels and increasing moisture as well , coupled with a stacked south to southwest flow surface and above, the east coast sea breeze will not make nearly as much inland progression today north of around Vero Beach. 

It is possible that activity could even go up sometime after 2 pm very close to the coast in preferred locations (namely, near Lake Okeechobee and North Merritt Island) but the bigger event for today will be when the west coast sea breeze makes it's meeting with the east coast sea breeze later in the day.

Temperatures aloft are not all that cold, nor are winds strong and with less likelihood of any 'dry layers' aloft, the risk of 'severe category wind gusts' decreases. The bigger story I suspect between today well into next weekend will be 'sum total rainfall totals', possibly exceeding 5 Inches 'somewhere' in the state, possibly near the Nature Coast (the Big Bend area), but other areas could get larger totals on days like today when storm forward motion will be slow and erratic.

FRIDAY: So far, not much change from today is forecast. Granted, chances are each and every day from here on out will have it's own 'flavor' and/or 'type'  and how storms/showers evolve one day might well be dependent  upon boundaries laid out from previous day's activity as well. 

There is a bit more of a shift though come the weekend.

WEEKEND-MONDAY: The upper level features are advertised to make their closest pass to the Peninsula.

The GFS is consistent in lowering upper level temperatures and increasing mid-level winds. 

This could result in deeper convection, higher rainfall totals in a short amount of time, and stronger wind gusts; on the other hand, it can also mean but early initiation and quick motion off the east coast and residual cloud cover the remainder of the day. 

How things will evolve ultimately is up to how the 'cards fall' at this point. 
All in all, many will see much needed rainfall.

More to come in detail concerning the weekend time frame through Monday in future posts. Could be interesting.

NEXT WEEK: Continued variations to what by then will be 'the same old theme, different day'.

The mid-upper level features are forecast to abandon the Southeast states and lift north and east after Monday and/or Tuesday, but Southwest Flow aloft continues until at least Thursday. After that point, the Atlantic Ridge axis attempts to re-assert it's position across either South Central or Central Florida.  

It won't be all 'wet ' though. The GFS is showing that there is a chance at least parts of the state might  be 'dry slotted' perhaps on Sunday or Monday, so time will tell. If we are 'dry slotted' that means there would be specific areas that nearly to most definitely would not see rain that day.

The next issue, however, is whether a tropical entity (if nothing more than organized moisture) will have manifested near the Yucatan awaiting on the wings to be advected northward toward the Panhandle and in part, the peninsula as well come later next week.

This is too far out in time to be of concern at this point. 

Yesterday, the GFS had abandoned the notion that a potentially 'Named System' could impact the Western Panhandle, but then it brought it back again in a later run. 

 What will be seeing come 8 days from now (as one ought expect would be the case) is where else? Up in the air.

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