"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Thursday, September 24, 2009

Water OFF..Water ON..Water OFF...Water ON

(Above: "Gold Sunshine")

The atmosphere over the Atlantic nearshore waters and the land mass are just not cooperating in tandem to produce the desired precipitation along much of East Central Florida. Of course, if you don't want it to rain it's golden sunshine. Current morning data at first glance seems to reveal all the answers for the day...while the models are showing a different story altogether.

So this forecast will have two options : (1) A blend of what current data shows, the models, and past days trends...or (2) what my gut tells me.

(1) Current data shows that the atmosphere is very well saturated up to above 700mb with the driest air residing right on or above the surface. However, water vapor imagery shows much drier air throughout the layer has moved in since after midnight despite what the fairly recent sounding shows and this drier air expends well out into the Atlantic. Expect this 'drier air' reside mostly just well aloft and shouldn't be much of a factor (3) Some models indeed pick up on the drier early day period..but all agree that it will only last until early afternoon. So based on the models one is lead to believe that this drier air is short lived at the very low level..and by very early afternoon will be replaced by rainshowers moving onshore. However, by that time the true sea-breeze will have become established and washed out all hopes of such occurring.

(2) With all said and done, it is with great hesitation that I'm led to believe that east central Florida will receive little to no rain today despite what the model runs are showing. Interestingly, the drier air aloft is currently over much of the peninsula except extreme south. Models do show that rain chances will begin somewhere in the 2-3pm time frame west of the spine of the state and this leading 'voundary' will collide with a light onshore /Gulf Breeze after 5pm which shouldn't make it much more than about 10-20 miles inland. By that time whatever dry air is in place there now will likely have moved out. The caveate for the east coast is that models are still hinting at precipitation for even after the onset of the seabreeze. Whether this is just an anomoly or a sign of a change in the pattern of late will have to be seen. If indeed there has been a change, then the east coast could see afternoon rainshowers, but this would be a pretty big change, and I'm not willingly to jump into that pool yet without testing the waters. But leave it at this, if it does by any chance happen to rain today, it should be between 12:30pm - 2pm.

West coasters can hope for another shabang very late today...but just exactly where is not so written in stone as it has the past few days. Could be almost the story unfolds.....