"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Wednesday, February 27, 2019

Small Risk of a Strong Storm (East Central) after 4pm - Warming Trend through Saturday

Late February Sunrise, Cape Canaveral

 An upper disturbance resulting in cloudy skies, rain and cool temperatures yesterday has pressed east out into the Atlantic, while another disturbance approaching from the Western Florida Panhandle has taken on the form of an MCS (mesoscale convective system) as it presses east. This is notable per the satellite loop included below.

With cleared skies becoming but partly cloudy most of all Central and South Florida into the early afternoon, daytime heating and sufficient low level destabilization will occur ahead of that feature. Low level wind is weak so a sea breeze will be able to set up in advance of it's approach. Temperatures aloft are rather cold and wind fields are sufficient for stronger storms, particularly after 4pm North Central Florida. 

There are numerous factors at play that  could result in enhanced storm activity today, but it much is contingent upon timing and how things work together. 

Should East Central remain with low cloud coverage and on the premise we might see enhanced forcing ahead of the feature with an outflow boundary related to it, low level convergence at the surface with cold air aloft coupled with increases in the 0-3KM helicity fields might provide the needed impetus for a strong storm or two.

Otherwise, general thunder with gusty winds in a near storms is possible. 
There will be many areas that will see no rain at all today as well , though.

Late morning satellite imagery shows the motion of the  'MCS'  type activity in the eastern - northern Gulf. It will be several hours before cloud coverage from this feature overspreads the state.

Peak time for 'potential activity 'will be from near Lake County eastward and into Orange/Osceola going into the 5pm or so. Otherwise, other activity might be able to form from near Miami-Dade northward toward Vero Beach earlier in the afternoon (enhanced perhaps by the Lake Okeechobee Breeze in Martin/St Lucie Counties).

THURSDAY-SATURDAY: Continued warmer though cloud cover going into Friday (and perhaps another shot of rain) might hold down afternoon highs a bit on one or more days.

Saturday looks to be a warm and dry one though at this point.

SUNDAY: Cold front is slated to slide south of Central Florida by late morning, though this could change. Temperatures fall to just below normal for afternoon highs Sunday-Tuesday; with yet a much colder shot of 'winter like 'temperatures foreseen later in  the week. This could well change however, but the 'risk' is being advertised of almost a return to 'winter like weather' for 48 later next week. The GFS might have over-blown this though, as the CFSV2 model is not showing this more drastic temperature drop (at least not as yet). Not time to put away the winter gear altogether entirely just yet (at least not until we get the last week of March out of the way).

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Friday, February 22, 2019

Unseasonably Warm Through Sunday - Unsettled Next Week

"Jake As Seen His Sunrise and Predicts Another Warm Day At Hand"

TODAY: No different than than the past few days for the most part, especially right along the immediate coast.

 Southerly to southeast wind off a slowly warming ocean (latest water temperature at Port Canaveral has risen from 62F-63F from a few weeks ago to 69-70F as of yesterday) will keep coastal afternoon high temperatures in check toward the upper 70Fs to near 80F with inland and western Florida temperatures mainly in the mid-upper 80Fs. 

Record warm low temperatures might again be broken today and tomorrow. 

SATURDAY: Continued above normal temperatures with morning coastal lows near 70F. 

An area of increased low level moisture is approaching the state as it rounds high pressure east of the state  and is being forecast to ride up mainly the east coast from south to north over night to arrive to East Central Direct an hour or so before sunrise. 

The main impact would be increased patches of cloud cover and perhaps a light low-topped shower. Afternoon highs 'might' be tempered down a bit mainly inland if cloud cover is more prevalent, otherwise, 'no significant changes'.

See below, and look toward the Bahamas

SATURDAY NIGHT: A cold front is approaching the state for Sunday evening : though yet a bit away, slowly veering low to mid level wind fields could result in moisture convergence and lift toward the east coast mainly from near Cape Canaveral northward through Volusia County from near to just after sunset through midnight or points even later; thus, a risk of rain in that area from near dark through midnight. 

Otherwise, no change in the temperature regime.

SUNDAY: WARM. As cold front approaches pressure gradient wind fields at the surface might be great enough to offset the east coast sea breeze. If this is the case, the afternoon high along the beaches will be noticeably warmer, that being, in the mid-upper 80Fs (assuming there is not too much cloud cover) from recent days. 

Areas to most experience this if so would be from near Vero Beach northward through Sanford to Southern Volusia County.Inland temperatures will simply continue to be what they have been for days now (anyway).

SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY: Cold front to drop from north to south toward Indian River County and be strung out from east to west across the state as it is mainly  absorbed into the mean low to mid level flow pattern around prevalent high pressure. 

The only effect of the boundary will be to turn down the afternoon high temperatures more toward Normal values. The immediate beaches will least notice this affect as they have not been AS warm as inland areas to begin with. Morning lows though will continue above normal (that is , in the mid 60Fs as opposed to lower to mid 50Fs). However, it will be breezy at times.

TUESDAY: Little change from Monday as wind will be turning NE-E-ESE-to now ESE-SE, but  decreasing to the 5 -15 mph range . 

Changes will be in the wings from the west however. 

Chances are by later Tuesday toward Wednesday what has remained of the cold front of Sunday evening will lift northward as an amorphous 'warm front' (so to speak) and that boundary could be accompanied by rain chances when that occurs. 

This however, will just be the beginning of series of changes to occur incoming days, if not even the next two weeks as it appears we 'might' be entering a whole new 'regime' or weather pattern .

WEDNESDAY: Surface wind continues to become more southerly as guidance now indicates a series of mid-upper level disturbances to approach from the West at the same time. This is a very difficult to time situation at hand as well as to locate where the most favorable areas of 'rain risk' will occur. For now, there is an implication that perhaps even thunder could be heard late Wednesday over Central Florida, if not at least a respectable chance of rain.

BEYOND: From Wednesday through Friday guidance varies from run to run, and models also vary between each other as to just exact 'what' will happen 'where' and 'when'. But the overall picture being painted is 'unsettled' with an increased rain chance at various points in time. 

Eventually the disturbances (of late Tuesday through Thursday/Friday) clear the area and we resume a new westerly flow pattern with yet another set up to approach in a few days afterward of similar nature. Thus, if the GFS is at all correct that far out (which is highly debatable)...the first weeks of MARCH look to have several offerings of rain chances in store. But time will tell.

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Saturday, February 16, 2019

Warm and Mainly Dry Through Month's End

Great Blue Heron "Standing Post" on a Cool Friday Morning - Cocoa Beach, Florida
TODAY: Last of the 'more cool' mornings appears to be at hand today as the continued trend of  'at to above 'normal temperature' ranges ' for this time of year continues. 

There is some thin higher clouds streaming over head easily discernible from infrared satellite imagery in the pre-dawn hours that appear will be with us another day into tomorrow as can be seen below. 

As a result of the high clouds, afternoon highs will be tempered down just bit from what they could be otherwise. The afternoon sea breeze might hold off today though, so the immediate coast line (east of US1) might experience a taste of the warmer temperatures that have been occurring inland.

There has been a rather large temperature gradient (difference in temperatures inland from beachside) the past few days, but today might not be so much the case (nor the case in days ahead).

Apart from the higher clouds from time to time, and likely some spotty lower clouds, not much change from what we've seen the past two days.

SUNDAY: Again, not much change other than that the morning might be just a bit warmer than has been recently , solidly in the mid 60Fs rather than mid-upper 50Fs. High clouds again might be in the picture.

MONDAY-TUESDAY:   A storm system will eventually be developing in the Southern Plains with an attendant front. This system will progress mainly toward the Northeast states with the attendant front never making it to Florida.  

Meanwhile, the ridge axis pressed to the south of Central Florida (as of this morning) will hold fast for several days and attempt to lift north heading into Tuesday. In doing so, with weak low level wind at play, an inverted coastal trough could form Monday night into Tuesday and convergence along that boundary could lead to some showers along the east coast from South to Central somewhere from overnight Monday (South) toward Central (mid-morning - early afternoon). 

This is the only risk of 'rain' foreseen for several days from that point on ward. As of 'onshore flow' the afternoon on Tuesday might not be as warm as will be Sunday-Monday (at the coast specifically).

WEDNESDAY - SATURDAY: Eventually wind becomes more S-SSW, varying in degrees each day once again. As a result, both mornings and afternoons will be above normal , with lows near 70F and highs (especially inland) in the lower-mid 80Fs. 

Temperatures east of US1 will also be much warmer on some days than they have been recently, but that depends on whether (or not) a sea-breeze sets up. If it does, it will remain cooler at the beaches; if not, expect lower-mid 80Fs.

Ocean water temperature at The Port of Cape Canaveral is currently reading a cool  65F, so any wind coming off those cool waters is bound to affect the ambient air temperature nearby , especially notable directly on the beach to within a few blocks of it in the afternoons.

On some days, an 86F (for example) west of US1 can be a 75F on the beach once the sea breeze is established.

Cloud conditions will vary during this 'window' from clear some days to partly cloudy others.

Wind will be light through the duration.

 In  other words, rather unchanging and pleasantly warm weather for this time of year.

TEMPERATURE GRAPHIC FOR FRIDAY, NEXT WEEK would imply mid 70Fs along the east coast by early evening:

late in the day, continued dry):

EVEN NEXT SUNDAY NOW- FUTURE: Though there 'might' be a day or two where showers could form inland due to sea breeze collisions, in general, the all clear has been sounded until at least NEXT SUNDAY (other than a small shower risk this coming Tuesday). 

We are now in the extremely unreliable time frame so ought not start hedging bets,
though there is a trend that a storm system might bring a bit more inclement weather to the state come the first week of March OR that a front could effect the state with cooler weather toward the very last day of February - but even then, nothing less than 50Fs for lows and 70Fs for highs is foreseen (in other word, normal).

MARCH: Does all this warmer weather mean winter is in essence, 'over'?


There is still a chance we could see much cooler , jacket donning weather ahead any time
in March into the first half of April

March  is considered also "Severe Weather Month" in Florida (though we haven't but barely seen any severe weather in Central Florida for over a decade now during the month of March).  

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