"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Wednesday, June 23, 2010

A Few More Quiet Days in Store

(Image: What is left of a drive-in theater in 'no where' Texas. What is showing at this theater is reflective of what is showing in our atmosphere today...NADA)

High pressure reigns supreme across the Western Atlantic and the Deep South today as far west as across N. Louisiana and extreme Western Texas. Subsidence along the ridge axis which exists both at the surface and aloft will inhibit convective activity (thunderstorms) across all of our area today. In the meantime, an active storm pattern remains across the northern tier of states from far eastern Wyoming the whole way east to the Jersey shore. This is the area of interest, once again, as a train of severe MCS storm clusters treks along a stationary frontal boundary which is slowly sinking south particularly over Kansas this morning. This has been the case now for several days already as we down here in Central Florida experience a completely different set ofcircumstances of benign nature.

Today, no change from yesterday's thinking both in the short-term and as we work into the weekend. High pressure will be the dominant force in control of the weather across East Central Florida easily through Friday. The morning KSC sounding and the profilers easily confirm the dominant easterly flow both at the surface and aloft along with overall lowered PWATs and environmental subsidence inconducive for even a rain shower. Low temperatures will remain around 80 along the coast with highs near 89 in the afternoon before the sea breeze becomes fully established by noon time at which time they will actually lower to around 87. Temperatures well inland in the lower to mid 90s.
In the longer range as we head into next week this pattern will begin to break down as an upper level trough begins to deepen south from the Canadian Border and the Great Lakes (and into the northestern U.S) by Monday and the flow becomes more southeasterly both aloft and at the surface. Overnight land breezes (from the W-SW) will take shape by Monday or more likely Tuesday in response to this trough for the Florida east coast. The GFS model is indicating that rain chances could increase for our area commencing Friday or Saturday, but at this time I'll hold fast to our previous notion that things will remain relatively least for the east coast until early next week as the GFS has been overly generous with the precipitation fields in our area as of late.

For the tropics: Believe that any activity that does manage to coalesce into an organized entity will remain well south of the area...or of the state for that matter. It does appear that 'something', possibly of the eventually named form, could develop down there...but no matter what shape it takes there will be no direct impacts. Indirectly though, as this system progresses west into the Western Caribbean and the S. Gulf the low-and mid level circulation from whatever form it takes will veer from easterly to more of a southeasterly component which will usher increased atmospheric moisture into our neck of the woods...and thus increase the rain chances initially inland. By early next week the aforementioned trough along the U.S. east coast in combination with higher moisture transport..along with the usual sea-breeze convergence parameters at play with little to none convective inhibition will once again instigate thunderstorm develop across the state. This could be realized as early as Saturday for inland areas to a small degree as moisture amounts increase throughout the overall layers, but as reflected earlier probably won't be a fully viable reality until Monday or Tuesday as the diurnal land breeze/sea breeze cycle becomes fully established.

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