"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Saturday, July 9, 2016

Chance of Isolated Showers - Early Afternoon / Strong Storm - Early Evening

"Warm Start to the Weekend - Cocoa Beach"
TODAY: Very little change from past few days over all. Temperature aloft at 500mb is a bit cold though but with continued warm temperatures surface into the mid levels with 'less than average' overall moisture content through the column. 

Satellite interpretation appears to hint at three potential boundaries laying dormant at time as will be depicted in the image below by the white dashed lines, and have not determined if those perhaps won't mix out during late morning into early afternoon heating. 

Regardless, things appear to be on track for another day similar to yesterday. The 4KM NAM, latest RAP, and HRRR are all showing 'scattered showers and storms' beginning as soon as late morning but suspect they might be over-down.  The 4KM NAM shows several respectable outflow boundaries from mid-afternoon activity all playing havoc by late afternoon -early evening as to where a strong storm would form, but the HRRR 'implies' it would be most likely 'somewhere Central / South Central ".

Given that there might be some boundaries across the Central and Southern Portions of the state (see below), sea breeze/lake breezes will form and see no strong reason why that wouldn't be the case given the trend of the past 2-3 days (the past two days have both seen a severe thunderstorm warning 'somewhere across the state') would ride with persistence for yet again a chance of a strong storm with small hail and/or winds gusting to 45 mph or more. 

Again though, most areas will not see rain today - but where it does rain it could be briefly  heavy. The biggest hazard as usual would be frequent to excessive lightning, mainly toward  6pm over the interior.

Image below shows storm near Lake 'Toho" which produced a highly visible funnel cloud on Friday.)

White dashed lines show possible boundaries which 'might' aid to ignite showers earlier today

SUNDAY-MONDAY: For now without much change being indicated until maybe late Monday or Monday night would go with persistence and call for 'similar in nature' type activity next two days.

TUESDAY: Indications the surface ridge across mainly South Central might lift north introduces a pattern change. GFS insists on increased chance of showers mainly near the east coast perhaps morning to mid-morning Tuesday moving inland during the day related to an inverted coastal trough lifting northward from the SE Florida coastal region (fingers crossed for the beach zones) but too far out in time , though it has been quite consistent on the possibility. 

Beyond Tuesday it looks more like a 'chances of showers near the coast in early morning hours migrating inland and toward the west coast late day' for several days with variations in that theme fora solid week. Any morning activity if so, very isolated.

Next 'significant'' over all change in the scheme of things is not even being hinted at until around the July 22nd time frame - well out of reach of reason and reason to rely on.

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