"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Saturday, September 20, 2014

Showers/Developing Rain Shield/Some Thunder Possible

TODAY:  Shorter post today as most of yesterday's so far appears to be materializing 'as scheduled'. Boundary lifting north mid morning is now near the Volusia /Brevard Border along the east coast and little further northward motion is anticipated. A weak low pressure circulation per radar animations is east off Northern Volusia. That low is expected to pull off only slowly today toward the ENE -NE but a secondary one could develop over the land mass during the day near Brevard County as the mid level low associated with the surface low is much more broadly distributed across North and North Central Florida and into the eastern Atlantic by the surface low.

There are two boundaries and upper energy with each. One is moving toward South Florida but not sure this will be the more active area and therefore did not draw in thunder there despite that greater instability will materialize there. Chances are there will be some thunder down that way, as the HRRR  model highly 'recommends' to presume  that will be the case. 

The RUC and GFS  models disagree and focus the festivities along the vorticity (energy)  across Central with  more rotating into North Florida which will enter North Central later today.

Instability isn't all that much outside of South Florida though but there remains a chance of thunderstorms today , some a bit 'elevated' more than likely though rain is rain. Severe weather so far is not anticipated but heavy rainfall is always a good possibility especially along the east side of the state north of Vero or Ft. Pierce to South or  Central Volusia spreading into interior areas though do note that not one model is showing that will be the case  by the time early evening arrives.

SUNDAY: Boundary will move very little and dwindle out as the low pressure area will move up along the Eastern Central U.S. Coast and be absorbed into the much larger low pressure trough moving across the Great Lakes Region into the Northeast States with time. 

Cloud cover again could be an issue, but suspect that most storms and showers on this day will be along and south of the Boundary or south of I-4 and especially south of a line running from Cape Canaveral to Tampa Bay, focused mostly over the east half of the state all the way down to the northern Keys   

MONDAY - TUESDAY: Meanwhile, another front is moving into the Deep South to enter the picture later Monday and Tuesday , so thunder might again occur on one or both days though overall atmospheric moisture should be reduced thus limiting the extent of cloud coverage overall. Suspect if there are to be stronger storms it will be Monday closer to the east coast from Brevard and South to Miami.

BY WEDNESDAY high pressure building across the Eastern US absorbs all remaining traces of said activity and a deep but mild onshore flow regime sets in resulting in warmer overnight lows at the beaches but slightly cooler afternoons over all with 90Fs hard to come by, especially at the beaches.

Longer range GFS was setting up for a potential 'heavy rainfall totals' event along the east coast mid next week toward the weekend, but a bit skeptical on that until greater consistency is given, on account that is too far out in time. We are near the time of the No Name Storm of 2011 though which was the first week of October and signs of that event to show up were quite consistent using the very same model we are currently speaking of  which had shown such to occur next week. Show, that is, until the last model run. Additionally, the ECMWF model is not showing such to be the upcoming situation now either. Maybe things will switch back though so might bear watching.

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