Images: Posting the images shown because as the saying goes "A picture paints a thousand words". Satellite image shown depicts the extent of cloud coverage, and most pronouncedly, where it does not extend. Clear skies are not far away from East Central Florida, but South Florida sees no hope for the direcct sun rays today. Moisture and showers just off shore.
TODAY: Low pressure features are passing South and west of the Florida Keys this afternoon and upper level winds aloft are streaming over them, shearing the moisture laden upper level atmosphere across the South 1/2 of the state. Brevard County is currently on the northern extent of the receiving end of this event. Meanwhile, an inverted trough co-located near the Gulf Stream off shore in conjunction with what was noted yesterday as a weak low pressure area over the Northern Bahamas lies in waiting for the energies associated with the first feature to spread on in...
In the meantime, for the earlier portions of the afternoon, cloudy skies persist over much of the area for which this blog covers. If you are a reader and look outside at clear skies right now, you will stay that way. It's the folks further south of you that have the short term weather to contend with.
By later this afternoon, in the 4-6pm time frame, it is entirely possible the 850mb and some 500mb vorticity will act upon the inverted trough laying in waiting offshore the east coast. Additionally, the NNW surface winds should begin to veer more toward the NNE (from which winds just above the surface are already from)...providing for a deep enough, yet very shallow column of moisture sogged air to generate a more concentrated shallow cloud deck. Concentrated enough to result in precipitation over the barrier islands. Should this occur, it will be within an hour or two of sunset.
The fly in the ointment that should things align ever so slightly further to the east than anticipated, the rain will remain off shore...and in fact, the skies could even start to break up...but for now, I'm playing the devils advocate in gambling with model consensus. Any rain that will fall will be solely east of I-95, if not US1, from Oak Hill to Ft. Pierce. Further south, those areas into Palm Beach and Broward Counties are contending with the dynamics of an entirely different animal. Regardless, the end result is the same.
Afternoon high temperatures I expect will be much cooler than formally released by the press due to the cloud cover and/or evaporative cooling of any early stage rain that tries to fall but evaporates before penetrating the very dry air that is struggling to modify (as noted in yesterday's "spine of the state" dryness image).
TONIGHT: Should clouds remain in place, as is most likely, overnight lows will be much milder over those areas that will clear out further to the north. Those areas will be colder for sure without the radiation blanket of clouds thrust overhead.
FRIDAY: Still a tough call for the coast from Oak Hill and south. But, I do believe the rain chance can be removed altogether with the only thorn being the possibility of clouds, but do believe they will be on the decrease as well allowing afternoon temperatures to rise most notably into the upper 60s or near 70F degrees. Reason being the forecast winds at 925mb will weaken and loss their onshoreward directed component.
SATURDAY: Rain free and warmer both by night and by day. Could even maybe do some shorts by afternoon...but don't pack away the long johns just yet. Overall, Saturday looks to be the most comfortable, pleasant day on the shelf in entirety for some time to come.
SUNDAY: Very pleasant other than some increasing high clouds. Should be rain free all day with a warm southwest wind...but the folks in the Panhandle and N. Central Florida up toward Gainesville and eventually Ocala area will be first to see and feel the harbinger of things to come in the form of more cloudiness and rain before daylight ends. Further south into most of the Central and Southern Portions of the state we should remain precipitation free until after sunset.
This is different from earlier proposals for this time frame. That is, it looks like the cold front headed this way is going to be delayed (most conveniently) by several hours from what was previously thought. As such, not a bad day overall.
MONDAY: Cold front passes through overnight and morning dawns cold and very breezy. Could see our warmest temperature of the day in the morning...or whatever the temperature is at 10am might just hold steady there until late afternoon, after which it drops like a rock. Windy too from the NW-NNW. Monday is not going to be a fun day to romp about in shorts for sure. Have muffs, gloves, scarves, coats, ..will travel.
TUESDAY: Coldest morning of next week as winds die down a bit, but not entirely. On the other hand, a little warmer than Monday in the afternoon but not warm enough to change the wardrobe. Must point out at this time, that it does not look as though it will get as cold as advertised yesterday...in fact, not nearly as much so. Basically, it will be comparable to that which we've just experienced that past few days...give or take.
WEDNESDAY: Modification of the cold air mass fully commences as we await the next system
CHRISTMAS: Outlooks for this time frame will begin by Monday. For now, not expecting tremendously cold air to be in place, but the chance of precipitation may prove problemmatic. But again, it is unrealistically way to far off in time to do anything more than hypothesize. Can't even come up with a theorem yet no less.