"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Thursday, December 7, 2017

Watching Like a Hawk for 'Potential Severe' - Prolonged Cold Spell on Tap

TODAY: What a day of contrasts currently at hand !

 If one is along a line from North Brevard to Tampa southward, they'd never guess that not far away are completely overcast skies and temperatures as much as 25F degrees colder (as of 1pm). 

Temperatures last hour in the Panhandle Region are running  in the  upper 40Fs through the 50Fs  with mid 70Fs to lower 80Fs across South Central and South Florida.  A stationary front has come to a halt across Central Brevard stretching across the state to the north side of Tampa Bay and will remain in place more or less the rest of the day before slowly lifting back north overnight or into early Friday.

Frontal Boundary bisects the state this afternoon

TONIGHT: Not much change overnight as this boundary remains nearly stationary. A powerful upper level trough with Jet Stream winds plunging southward across the East Central U.S. and associated  'energy' with strong mid-upper level winds as well will approach the state late tomorrow and then cross the state mainly north of a line from Ft Pierce to Sarasota during the overnight resulting in increasing mid-level lift due to speed shear though there might also be just a bit of directional shear mainly north of that line.

Models vary significantly in the finer (and most important details) as to where the Risk of any strong to severe storms might occur, with the NAM model showing the potential well into Northern Parts of North Central Florida, but for now will not go there and stay further south . However....

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT- EARLY SATURDAY: The Storm Prediction Center in their latest outlook Is favoring a bit further north than what this post is showing for a 'risk area'. 

Either way, the Time of 'Greatest Potential Risk' for strong surface winds to Severe Strength if not even mini-swirl type tornadic activity appears most likely  along to south of I-4 after Dark on a developing Quasi-Linear Convective System Type Squall Line (if the 3KM NAM is to be believe). 

This is  still a  " 'yet to be seen'  -  'still in development' " type situation as far as forecasting is concerned. Timing and location could vary greatly yet still. 

Otherwise, the chance of seeing rain, some heavy with totals been 1/2" - 1.5"  (some places much less) across the entire state at varying times is high, beginning late Friday running through mid  morning - early afternoon Saturday (South Florida), though again, that could change. 

Rains will end rapidly from north to south, and might be over with across North Central between 9AM -1PM Saturday , though could be as much as 3 hours sooner (or later). Least to clear as would be expected, South Florida mid day Saturday.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Behind the front cold air advection commences with gusty NW winds over 25 mph at times. The Full Thrust of  'cold air' will not be yet realized, however, until yet another front is to approach sometime around late Tuesday. Regardless, highs on Saturday afternoon might not see 60F along and north of I4 with Sunday morning lows in the upper 30Fs interior to lower -mid 40Fs in many locations .  

SUNDAY: With the above said, either Sunday/Monday morning for some folks along the east coast might see the coldest morning experienced since the coldest morning all of last winter, coupled with wind chill readings. Wind however by Monday morning will have tapered off significantly.

MONDAY-TUESDAY: "Warming trend' if you can call it that. 

Though it will be 'warmer'  after another cold Monday morning through Tuesday the temperatures will still be below 'normal',  but after the previous two days might not feel so bad comparably speaking.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: Yet another front if not two will progress down the state with the greater surge of colder air now being anticipated. The Canadian Model actually indicates a near State Wide Freeze Thursday/Friday mornings but the GFS doesn't even come close to such as that and not sold on the idea either.

Regardless, the potential remains that for  some folks along the East Coast South of I-4 to see colder weather later next week than was experienced nearly all of last winter with gusting winds to boot.

BEYOND: As would be expected we're now referring to a time frame of greater uncertainty from what is already quite a bit of previous uncertainty. 

General trend has been a warm up in the great beyond, that is, until the last GFS model came out.   Thus, as is always the case this far out in time, there is no way in knowing what is to come toward the Days Just before and on Christmas quite yet.

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