June 20th though the 26th is national lightning awareness week as declared by the National Weather Service. But for the most part this state has been nearly lightning free (although not entirely), particularly right along the east coast. But changes are lurking as we head toward the beginning of next week.
Almost no change in thinking from yesterday's post so not much to highlight. A high pressure ridge axis both at the surface and aloft extends from the Atlantic westward across S. Georgia this morning and into Texas. Unsettled weather continues in the Caribbean showing little sign of organized development.
Basically no change in this configuration through Friday and essentially Saturday as well. Of interesting note, as mentioned yesterday, is the trough of low pressure forecast by the GFS to dig along the U.S. east coast, especially as the area of disturbed weather in the Caribbean shifts west toward the Yucatan and the high pressure ridge erodes from the west and shifts further into the Atlantic as we work into Sunday. It is worth noting that the GFS has not once developed the tropical area in the Caribbean into a full blown system during the past two days, yet on the flip side has been adamant on developing the east coast trough into a full blown frontal boundary that penetrates the Florida peninsula which would be quite a climatological anomaly for this time of year.
When all is said and done, it does appear at this time that a trough will deepen down the U.S. east coast during the course of the next 72 hours and the ridge axis will relax, especially as whatever happens in the Caribbean shifts west toward the Yucatan peninsula. This is 'important' for us because it will mean a change in the overall weather pattern across the peninsula beginning late Sunday which will notable by Monday afternoon.
In the meantime, persistence will be the ruling factor as deep layer / relatively dry easterly flow persists. By Sunday this flow will shift to more of a SE to SSE component and allow higher atmospheric PWAT values to encapsulate the region. What will become of the frontal boundary remains as much, if not greater, a mystery than what is happening (or forecast to) in the tropics. Namely because it would be extremely unusual for a frontal boundary, as it were, to penetrate Central Florida as depicted by the GFS.
When push comes to shove for the time being, at least through Tuesday, is that we will be undergoing some notable changes beginning overnight Saturday into all of Sunday as the ridge loses its prevailing influence and a trough develops down the Appalachian Chain into the deep southeast U.S. I have a hard time believing that a frontal boundary will actually make it this far south at this point, but do believe that regardless of whether that occurs or not an increase in shower/thunderstorm activity is in the cards beginning Sunday (initially for the inland areas) which will be more widespread and possible for even the east coast Monday through Wednesday. This conclusion will undoubtedly need to be refined as the time draws nigh.