THE BIG PICTURE: See image and text above. Note the colored text as well as that in black off to the left in that image. The yellow line depicts where there might be a mid-level disturbance in the atmosphere to cross the state today. RUC model fields are showing a large area of upward vertical motions throughout the atmosphere today beginning at 1pm. These motions are shown to occur from the ground up to 20,000 ft. This almost always implies a very large coverage of storms ..some strong. Temperatures aloft today are much like yesterday, so do not expect hail other than pea sized in strong downdrafts as storms first begin to collapse.
As stated, the atmosphere is loaded with moisture throughout the 'column'...precipitable water values across the state are between 1.8" - 2.1". This high moisture content can precip (rain ) out as big rainfall totals once again where strong storms occur. Even a brief storm can drop 1/2" with no problem. Lingering rains until 9-10pm will add a little more to where either heavy rain has already fallen or for those areas that never receive a storm today. Not everyone will have a big storm today which should go without saying. It'll be a roll of the dice and a spin of the wheel to see how and where the chips may fall. Someone today is going to be dealt a Royal Flush...perhaps over South Florida near the coast, perhaps Central Florida (somewhere), or perhaps Somewhere in North Florida later today in the form of a Severe Storm with strong winds...time will tell. Who knows, maybe they won't see storms at all today as shown by the morning NAM model. Hmmm...
EARLY-MID AFTERNOON: Rain/storm coverage should increase slowly and haphazardly for much of the day through 3pm. The west coast sea breeze will ignite storms as it works east, and be accompanied by the mid-level trough and upper level lift as it prods ahead. We can see the forecast 'lift' in the atmosphere by the image above. Over North Florida...another separate region of lift will form later this afternoon associated with divergent (and stronger) jet stream level winds north of SR 528 to JAX, being the strongest from DAB to JAX. This too, can result in strong storms contingent upon how much the clouds can clear in that area, and thus, the atmosphere can destabilize. This is depicted in the first image. A funnel cloud is again possible with a storm or two near the coast along the sea-front front in the early afternoon and/or later in the afternoon as the west coast sea breeze progresses toward the East Coast in those areas not affected by early afternoon rains.
LATE-AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING: The strongest storms should occur after 4PM until 9:00pm as the mid-level trough works across the state in conjunction with the most unstable time of day and progression of the west coast sea breeze. Storms will move in general from west to east at 10 -15mph, but this rather slow motion as is almost always the case, will also allow out flow boundaries and progression/propagation along those boundaries to result in chaotic individual storm motions. Radar could show one storm moving north with another nearby storm moving in almost the opposite direction...but the general progression will be from west to east. Outflow from storms back to the west can initiate more storms in the 'cleaner air"...which would result in some training of a storms in a few locations over the same areas, mainly inland. Storms up and down the east coast today should be able to move offshore ...if not earlier then later in the afternoon toward early evening.
|AVERAGED MOISTURE CONTENT AT 11AM: Blue is very moist. Two mid-level troughs are shown, one off the Gulf (West Coast) and another in the Panhandle. Note comments on the graphic in the colored text.|
SUNDAY: Another of storms looks to be in the cards. Oh well. How things will play out tomorrow cannot be determined ...with even a guess...until we see how today/tonight ends up.
MONDAY: Could be another of storms, with less coverage. Some storms on Monday might be stronger though due to less overall coverage, greater instability, and sea breezes smacking more firmly together closer to the interior with only slow storm motion.
TUESDAY: For now, it looks like there could be noon time type showers forming near the coast and progressing westward as the day wears on across the spine of the state and toward the west side late in the afternoon. This pattern COULD continue for two days...OR...we might slide straight into a more 'marine showers' type regime on the east side..evolving into thunderstorms the further west they progress, especially over South Florida. Time will tell.
TROPICS: Not looking as much like tropical storm development will occur in the Bay of Campeche, although a depression is still possible which would move right into Mexico. This, in part, is due to the fact that the ridge axis which is dictating storm motion in Florida might not lift as far north as has been forecast the past 2 days. (another reason why thunderstorms can occur on the east side of the state again tomorrow). We will need to continue to monitor the Gulf of Mexico though going into the first week of July, closer to Florida. The GFS, although preposterously too far out in time to be close to accurate, has been showing development toward Florida for several runs...and continues to do so. Could the Shuttle Launch be rained or clouded out, not from a 'system' but because of rainshowers? Time will tell.