"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Sunday, December 26, 2010

It's Cold In Them Thar Hills!!!

Image: Temperature forecast for 7AM Tuesday morning is shown, depicting widespread temperatures in the mid-upper 20s over the Florida peninsula. But what about Monday?! See below for details.

TODAY: No surprises here in Florida, but can't say the same for folks from Virginia to Maine the next 12-48 hours as heavy snow moves in from just ENE of Washington DC to eventually Maine. Folks in New York City are battening the hatches in preparation for a quick BIG ONE as far as snow and wind are concerned. But closer to home we have our own eggs to fry, or should I say, "freeze"!

As expected, although a few hours earlier than what model runs from the night of the 24th were depicting, the cold front has cleared Central Florida now and for that matter south Florida as well.

The mid-upper level trough axis is still well to the west of the state, and therefore the wind just over head is still from the WSW and blowing at 40kts plus just about 2200ft overhead. The higher up one goes the stronger it gets as the jet stream dips across the Central Peninsula with winds exceeding 100 kts around 30,000ft accordingly. At the surface, a fanning of wind gusts are found in the mid-30mph range with a few 40mph gusts being reported on the hour at a few locations from time to time.

Temperature wise, a freeze warning is now in affect for tonight into tomorrow morning. The high temperature of the day as expected occurred before the front passed and fell about 15 degrees at my place within the first few hours after its passage. Since day break they've held in the upper 40s with mid 40s more prevalent to the west and north advecting toward the east coast from Sebastian Inlet and points north. Temperatures of course are warmer the further south one goes and colder (widespread upper 30s) across the panhandle and north Florida where 'flurries with sleet' was officially reported at the Jacksonville reporting station at 10AM.

Clouds will hold fast until the mean trough axis has shifted further east along with the accompanying upper level vorticity/spin/energy, which will not be until after dark. As such, partly cloudy to occasionally mostly cloudy sky conditions due to stratocumulus clouds at the low levels will pass overhead through the remainder of the afternoon; conditions will change from one to the other in rapid fashion due to how quickly the clouds are being propelled by the strong wind just overhead, but believe we'll be seeing way more sun than clouds the later into the afternoon we proceed and more definitively after dark. High temperatures accompanied by these clouds will be held at bay close to where they are at noon time (within 2 degrees for the most part), but will likely fall some more further south due to later passage there of the front proper.

Winds very gusty through the remainder of today and into tonight! What are those folks doing with the inflatable decorations in their fronts yards?! Would love to see one of those be lofted like a Thanksgiving Day Parade Inflatable Snoopy. Winds will gradually let up a little before midnight and gradually shift more toward the NW by daybreak Monday when peak, full cold air advection will be reached. Believe the 27F degree forecast for my area in Cape Canaveral advertised on The Weather Channel is close to the mark for a morning temperature here tomorrow morning, with mainly clear skies by that time.

MONDAY: Again, freezing temperatures to be reached from near Vero Beach to Tampa and everywhere north of there. NW winds about 1/2 the strength of today, but still in the mainly 15mph range during the day with temperatures quite comparable to what they are now (mid-upper 40s). Of course, warmer the further south one goes but it will likely be colder down toward Miami that what it is (or will be) today.

TUESDAY: Another cold morning state wide with an even greater expanse of freezing temperatures to be felt up and down the state. Probably a little colder inland than what the immediate coast will feel Monday... perhaps a few degrees warmer over the barrier islands since this will be less of an advection freeze, but flirting with the 30-32F range nonetheless. Winds will have died down significantly as high pressure will begin to pass over or just north of the state and the pressure gradient at all atmospheric levels will be greatly reduced. Most of Tuesday will be spent with a NNW winds at 10mphs, but still quite cool...reaching into the low 50s from Cape Canaveral south....maybe even mid-50s.

WEDNESDAY: Another cool to very cold start all locales, but say good bye to the 'very cold' for QUITE sometime to come! Light and variable winds all day with clear skies will quickly yield to temperatures in the upper 50s and low 60s during peak daytime heating perhaps (fingers crossed) as high pressure passes to the east and a light easterly flow develops in its wake. 60s much more likely south of a line running along route 60 and close to the Melbourne area.

LAST HALF OF THE WEEK: No big weather makers are in store for the peninsula as temperatures slowly moderate under the influence of near by high pressure and a developing ESE wind flow aloft. Might have to watch for periods of coastal stratocumulus clouds near the coast at just about anytime between late Thursday to after New Years Day...but we could well be on our way to widespread 70 degree readings on New Years Eve and Day but do believe the areas along the US1 to A!A corridor north of Vero Beach will be closer to the upper 60s with a light onshore wind blowing across the very very cool Atlantic Ocean water.

FIRST PART OF JANUARY: Looks like the New Year and at this point, the first half of January could be everything that December wasn't, namely, predominately on the warm side (for comparison's sake) with temperatures around normal for a change. Will be watching the SW or Western Gulf of Mexico during this time frame though. It currently appears that most of the would be weather makers will be constrained to affecting namely the panhandle region with high pressure holding fast over the remainder of the state, supplying comfortable temperatures (for this time of year) and dry conditions mixed with some possible stormy ones! But again, this is a long time out there. As written yesterday, it still appears there could be some good shots of rain from January 3rd -15th, but no cold air (again) is being depicted (which looks at bit suspicious). Any rains to affect the state would originate from modified Pacific air masses meeting one of more polar origin well to our west, and as such any air mass to move further east of that point of origin will be of modified nature and not directly of "Polar Express" nature. The train will have pulled out of station and we're not selling any tickets for a next one!

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