"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Friday, September 28, 2012

Summersolstically Inclined Trend Foreseen

Splish Splashing Outlook Continues Be By  Land or  By Sea

TODAY: Not much different today than yesterday. Upper level temperatures this morning are surprisingly  very cool at 700 - 500mb aloft, but warmer 500mb air is expect (around 20,000 ft aloft) later today as high pressure at that level expands east ward across the Gulf as it gets spread out by an approaching and developing low pressure level boundary in the form of a cool to stationary frontal boundary over the weekend which is shown later in the post.

Otherwise, with respectable mixing ratios and deep layer convergence now occurring over the South Half of the state, suspect that is there that the bulk of the showers and thunder will occur, first along a slowly developing sea breeze as showers closer toward the coast with possibly thunder near the eastern side of   Big Lake Okeewhatever  with outflows and later day storms manifesting as instabiliyt builds with the full onset of the east coast sea breeze inland.  Any strong storms it appears as of this hour will be from near Yeehaw Junction and South into the Glades and western portions of the Broward/Dade Miami Metro areas.
Most activity very isolated except maybe late today. Activity over South Florida could move off toward the SW Coastal regions as indicated but overall shower and storm motion will be extremely slow to indiscernible

WEEKEND: Frontal boundary taking shape from off the coast of Maine South and westward into SE Texas by tomorrow. This boundary will serve as the main focus of rains all along that region especially near Coastal Texas to Southern Alabama and maybe Pensacola, with the brunt of rainfall occurring right near the region of Louisiana impacted heavily by the Hurricane a while back.Rainfall totals could climb toward 8" or more locally if the GFS (Global Forecast System) weather forecasting model verifies . 

Locally, not a big change tomorrow from today for Florida, with only a hint of the boundary getting closer to the Florida Peninsula prior to sunset Sunday.  In that regard, inland thunder but isolated again possible Saturday and more so on Sunday with some coastal showers possible before and at the time immediately preceding onset of the east coast sea breeze (like today). 

Continued warm and even more muggy on Sunday as this summer like pattern becomes more reminiscent of the Dog Days of mid-August rather than post Autumnal Equinox.

Watching that low to form near Central Texas which is forecast to shift east into next week toward Louisiana, never really reaching Florida as it stands now. SW Steering aloft is expected over the state Monday - Wednesday, showers and thunder much more likely during that time frame most areas, esp. Tuesday.

INTO NEXT WEEK: Increasing showers and thunder chances through Wednesday after which time the GFS becomes (as would be expected) less consistent in regard to the evolution of the synoptic scale pattern over the Eastern United States, especially over Florida. 

The only agreed upon resolution within that model's robotic mindset is that cooler weather is no where to be seen into Mid-October if not later than that unless a big shift from the trend occurs. This is a bit unusual, as by now we would have experienced a cool morning in the upper 60Fs at the beaches if not statewide which has yet to materialize. None is yet to be found or foreseen though.

"Beware of False Prophets"  

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