"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Friday, July 12, 2013

Storm Chances Continue through Saturday - Rain Chances Go Beyond

"Racing ahead of a Storm Just West of Cape Canaveral" 

"Storm Tracking Up the Banana River"

TODAY: As expected, today looks much different than yesterday although there are some similarities. Activity is already underway along the I-4 and is progressing across the state which will mean an earlier start to mostly folks north of I-4 spreading southward toward the Orlando area by early afternoon. 

There is a 'hole' in the instability over South Florida at least per the RAP Model and satellite imagery seems to be backing this idea up. Virtually none of the models agree today in regard to 'where' the best rain chance is, and to add greater difficulty is that the short term model is out of sync with the mid range guidance regarding the steering winds this afternoon taking them to nearly non-existent which is in sharp contrast to the NAM and GFS models which put steering from the WSW at 10-15mph. 

For now will run with persistence and toss the short term model out which unfortunately also means getting little use out of the Mesoscale Analysis parameters. The GFS seems to have the best handle on the situation favoring mostly the east coast for strongest activity from JAX South toward MLB (Melbourne possibly) with the latest activity being toward Brevard County sometime after 3pm (or so), although every day is different and guidance rarely gets the west or  east coast sea breeze progressions right. Given there was pre-sunrise activity off either coast and that has already begun to come to fruition over the landmass, suspect some activity could be near by any one locale even sooner than expected but only time will reveal the truth of the matter.

Note lack of clouds over portions of South Central and Even East Central. However, the activity over Lake County is steadily moving eastward even as this early hour of 11:30AM
Storm Lined Up Along the Length of the Banana River
UNDER what is referred to by some as "The Whales Mouth" - The Jonah View of Finally "Seeing the Light" on the horizon

View of July 11 Storm from the 528 Causeway looking NNW (North north west)

Otherwise,  local effects and arrival of activity today will be critical as to storm intensity with where the most lightning (likely along the east coast sea breeze collision toward I95 and US1 mid afternoon through late afternoon) will occur. Would be watching from West Melbourne northward toward Port St John to Mims are and into Central and Eastern Volusia (for now).

SATURDAY: Another day of good rain chances toward the east coast.

SUNDAY-BEYOND: No change from previous post (yesterday). Steering becomes a bit more from the South toward inland on Sunday but there could also be coastal morning showers as the wind pattern shifts to more from the east. By later in the week once whatever becomes (if anything) of Remnant Chantal is out of the way, it appears the Atlantic Ridge axis will be shunted south to Central or South Central Florida around Thursday into Friday by a larger upper level trough that will moving across the Northeast States. That will put the I-4 Corridor toward interior Central along the Beachline (Orlando area) in favorable conditions for active storms as well as other portions of the state, depending on where ample moisture resides. 

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