"Racing ahead of a Storm Just West of Cape Canaveral"
|"Storm Tracking Up the Banana River"|
TODAY: As expected, today looks much different than yesterday although there are some similarities. Activity is already underway along the I-4 and is progressing across the state which will mean an earlier start to mostly folks north of I-4 spreading southward toward the Orlando area by early afternoon.
There is a 'hole' in the instability over South Florida at least per the RAP Model and satellite imagery seems to be backing this idea up. Virtually none of the models agree today in regard to 'where' the best rain chance is, and to add greater difficulty is that the short term model is out of sync with the mid range guidance regarding the steering winds this afternoon taking them to nearly non-existent which is in sharp contrast to the NAM and GFS models which put steering from the WSW at 10-15mph.
For now will run with persistence and toss the short term model out which unfortunately also means getting little use out of the Mesoscale Analysis parameters. The GFS seems to have the best handle on the situation favoring mostly the east coast for strongest activity from JAX South toward MLB (Melbourne possibly) with the latest activity being toward Brevard County sometime after 3pm (or so), although every day is different and guidance rarely gets the west or east coast sea breeze progressions right. Given there was pre-sunrise activity off either coast and that has already begun to come to fruition over the landmass, suspect some activity could be near by any one locale even sooner than expected but only time will reveal the truth of the matter.
|Note lack of clouds over portions of South Central and Even East Central. However, the activity over Lake County is steadily moving eastward even as this early hour of 11:30AM|
|Storm Lined Up Along the Length of the Banana River|
|UNDER what is referred to by some as "The Whales Mouth" - The Jonah View of Finally "Seeing the Light" on the horizon|