"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Saturday, December 17, 2016

All Eyes on Near Record Highs - Storms Possible Sunday

TODAY (SATURDAY): Slowly increasing moisture in moist southerly flow with slight onshore component early morning keeping the temperature near the east coast around 70F (and above) most locations from the Cape and south , east of or near US1, while other locations vary from the mid 50Fs to mid 60Fs elsewhere.  Some thin higher clouds streaming by should clear the area making for a partly cloudy afternoon with heating of the day. There 'might' be an increase in cloud cover late in the day toward Eastern parts due to moisture convergence, with even the NAM model implying showers to form, though suspect it's overblown in that regard.

SUNDAY: Continued veering of wind to due south, even a bit SSW . Temperatures most areas to reach the lower to even potentially mid 80Fs getting close to record levels for the date. Guidance continues to imply a chance of showers passing near the coast early in the day (though probably will for the most part remain offshore), as a powerful cold front that has put the 'deep freeze' on many parts of the country glides through the Deep South. High pressure over the Western Atlantic with its axis across South Central will put the brakes on that boundary though going into Sunday night somewhere close to or just south of the I-4 region.

Meanwhile, with continued moisture advection and warm temperatures, will see CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) reach up to around 1500 J/kg which is rather unusual for December. (IN summer it can reach over 4000 J/kg, but in winter it mostly is around 500 J/kg or below to non-existent, for comparison's sake).  Moisture convergence and decent low level lapse rates combined with increased low level helicity along the east coast of Indian River, Brevard, and Volusia Counties combined with the instability could result in some thunderstorms (though isolated) over mainly East Central and perhaps parts of interior South Central. Was tempted to cry , 'Possibly Strong' !   but mid level lapse rates are forecast to be weak and wind fields aloft are too weak to truly justify that call, apart from a random fluke , non-zero chance .

MONDAY: Frontal boundary gets absorbed around the outer most fringes of the cold air mass over much of the country as high pressure centered well north of Florida moves east resulting in a light, easterly to variable wind flow for a time. All this will means is slightly cooler in the mornings  with less chance of rain ; however, cloud cover could become problematic for about 2 days as moisture along the old boundary will take some time to thin out.

Regardless, latest trends are for highs in the lower 80Fs, with even a chance of a shower, possibly a random thunderstorm inland this day,  but wouldn't put any bets on the thunder risk just yet. 

TUESDAY-THURSDAY: Fairly benign pattern in place these days look  a bit like what the weather was like on Friday  with the chance of shower caveat thrown in, with a generally lighter easterly wind flow, some clouds, and above normal temperature regime but not record breaking, with morning/overnight showers possible close to the east coast south of the Daytona Beach area toward Miami. We might again need to watch for 'thunder' by Thursday afternoon as wind becomes more southerly by that time ahead of the next front that will be on the approach.

FRIDAY: Next front in question approaches the state but at time suspect it will undergo the same 'fate' as several have already so not taking the bait on any one model run at this point.  It appears the next front will pull  another Quick switcheroo around to an easterly wind shift behind the boundary (assuming it clears Central) to more easterly as the Jet Stream still will reside well north of the state rather than digger down to across or even south of Florida (necessary for the real cold air intrusions). 

CHRISTMAS EVE/DAY: Too far out in time for accuracy. Model guidance has flipped around numerous times with yet the front after this upcoming front on Friday to  varying from a possible cold front passage and much colder to the front never quite getting here yet with not much change, to an increasingly wet period with storms possible, all of which directly imply that it's too soon to say what Christmas Day will be like at this point.

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