"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Sunday, December 31, 2017

Cloudy , Dank and Wet - Then Colder Yet Still Through Saturday

TODAY: Nicest day of the week in regard to sky, wind, and rain free conditions combined. Enjoy it while it lasts!  Not much to say about today as temperatures remain cool, even a bit below normal, but otherwise uneventful as a new year arrives.

TONIGHT - MONDAY: Cloud cover will be increasing across the north even more where it is already cloudy as we speak (see next image below)  but will begin to drop further south along a frontal boundary. This boundary is the beginning or onset of what will eventually usher forth a much colder 'air mass' come later in the week, as it is defining the leading edge of said colder air.

In the mean time, increasing cloud cover with a chance of showers light rain commences across parts of North Central by early Monday morning and slowly begins to drop south over-coming most of Central to South Central Florida later in the day. The result of of extensive cloud cover combined with the low sun angle this time of year will be to prevent temperatures from rising possibly out of the mid-upper 50Fs, especially where any rain is falling. Better chances of seeing the 60Fs and even some lower 70Fs is South Central and South Florida. 

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: Wind increasing from the NNE - NE, gusting up toward 30 mph perhaps come late Tuesday night into Wednesday as broad and powerful high pressure works south from the northern states. The slight onshore component will keep overnight lows right near the east coast near normal but much colder air will already prevail across NW Florida.

 Low pressure will form off the Florida East Coast and that combined with what might be a bit of an inverted coastal trough running up the west side of The Gulf Stream just off shore to near the coast may well begin to manifest low level convergence resulting in much pesky cloudy cover and likely rainfall, mainly along to even only east of I-95, even US1.  Though we might see a break in the rains after Monday night into early Tuesday it does appear there will be a heavier return of the rains  to come sometime Tuesday and possibly all of Wednesday, mostly for the areas shown below. 

Temperatures for Central Florida mainly in the mid-upper 50Fs. Guidance is showing lower 60Fs, but suspect that if rain is falling, wherever that might be, temperatures could be substantially lower due to cold air aloft being dragged to the surface in and near rainfall. 

Coastal conditions will be most unplayful with gusting NNE - NE winds up toward 25-30mph, cloudy skies, and very cool temperatures accompanying any rainfall. Dank , wet, and windy as of now seems to sum of Tuesday and Wednesday.

THURSDAY: Large  and extensive area of low pressure that is form offshore will quickly lift off to the NNE offshore and up the U.S. east coast as the 'great plunge' of much colder air plows southeastward down the spine of the state over night Wednesday night into Thursday morning. 

Very rapid clearing in sky conditions from NW to SE down the state Wednesday aternoon into evening hours at least, but much colder by Thursday morning with lows across Central mainly the mid-upper 30Fs to near 40F (right at the beach south of the Cape). Freezing temperatures so far this morning anticipated possibly along to north of I-4 interior.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY: Wind will decrease somewhat but mornings continue quite 'cold' all things considered. Still any breeze will be felt, and no sign so far it will let up entirely.  This 'cold spell' appears will outdo anything we've seen the past two winters as it stands now in regard to 'duration'. 

 Possibly freezing temperatures interior with mid-upper 30Fs most areas (except far South Florida). Overall, this does not look like a 'big freeze' situation that would 'make the record books' as of now at least. We've seen worse. 

BEYOND: Looks like   continued breezy conditions , if so will be a blessing in disguise  . This would prevent much of a radiational cooling type situation, at least near the coast but again (which could lead to a damaging state wide freeze), it is too far out in time to know for certain if this will be the case.

The other 'good' side of the story is that as wind shifts to more of a NE-ENE component on Saturday afternoon a warm up will be most notable rather quickly. Not that it will immediately get 'warm' but things will all be relative by then. Low 60Fs will be 'warm by standard of the previous three days' especially by Sunday morning.

SUNDAY-BEYOND: The GFS and the CFSV2 (climate model) indicate the chance of a much longer 'warmer period thereafter', with temperatures running at to above normal well into mid January (?).

Noting, the coldest period of the year historically for any 'sustained periods of time' is  typically between early January to the last week of January. The question is, will  this be the worst overall 'temperature wise' that winter will deal out for us this season or not? Time will tell. 

The plus side so far is that warmer weather is already being foreseen despite this upcoming first week of 2018.   But again, going out beyond even 7 days is entering unchartered territory.

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