"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Thursday, March 8, 2012

Variable Clouds, Eastern Showers Possible, More Likely Friday

Afternoon synopsis per the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) Weather Forecast Model. Note the boundary now across the southern toward the NE portions of the U.S. Much rainfall is occurring along this boundary as has been implied for several days now. That boundary will be pressing east and slowly sink south into Central Portions of Florida early Saturday, barely!
TODAY: At least the wind has let up today, and as such coastal afternoon high temperatures will be warmer with less impact of wind blowing over cool water and sloshing the cool ocean air into those communities. Otherwise, little change in the local region. As can be noted above, a high pressure 'ridge axis' from a high centered yet further off the image will move very little although should sink slowly south with time as the front moves east. All in all, it appears that frontal boundary will barely clip the eastern shores of Central Florida before complete frontalysis occurs, leaving only a remnant moisture convergence band which could work down toward South Florida before even that depletes itself (Sunday time frame going into Monday). Meanwhile, comfortable temperatures in the mid-upper 70Fs and warmer west half of state and possible showers and overnight lows in the upper 60Fs to near 70F along the east coast, especially Brevard and South.

In the image I've colorized areas that could see a shower today ..the lavender in general is where the greater concentration of rain has been occurring along an old moisture convergence band from the previous frontal boundary. This band has lifted north a bit from Broward County (yesterday and earlier today into Palm Beach County ). Do note the  'enhanced 'area off Indian River County in this image. Radar shows showers moving toward Central and North Central Brevard, but at this time they are 'eroding' as they close in on the coast; possibly  due to cooler near-shore waters. Whether those showers will make it to shore is yet to be seen for the most part, and this has been the case for a few hours today so far. However, the blue area along Brevard mainly indicates that 'something' could very well reach the coast by mid-afternoon through at least mid-evening.  

FRIDAY: There are still indications that if it is going to rain solidly almost anywhere in the next few days (other than the area in South Florida like today) it will be on Friday from just north of I-4 and south. The GFS is very generous on this possibility from early morning (at the coast) to the entire state along those bounds as heating of the day commences. Suspect there could be some thunder given the cold air aloft, but there is little in triggering mechanisms other than perhaps some mid-level disturbance (minor) per the GFS. The NAM continues with advocating a possible sea-breeze collision toward Orlando (west side) late day in which case I believe would be thunder; other than that, it speaks little to rain chances elsewhere.Comfortable 73-77F degree readings. 80Fs west side of state away from any potential east coast sea breeze.

SATURDAY: The frontal boundary shown above will slide mostly eastward but sink south with time. In doing so, it will  absorb within the high pressure area depicted and wash out (frontalysis). Moisture will remain present ahead of this boundary, along it, and just behind it through Sunday as it side swipes Central Florida toward Palm Beach with time; thus, clouds and possible showers seemingly like today are possible through Saturday working from northeast Florida toward Central, and eventually Sunday (South) with a lower likelihood. 

As such, acting like a backdoor cold front as it were, a wind surge is possible behind the boundary remnants working down the coast as well with winds for a time similar to that of Wednesday. The fun-n-games with this boundary all regions should be over with by Monday through Wednesday at least with no change in the temperature regime of something like that of today..with little to no rain chance.

BEYOND: The next front so far is showing to behave in similar fashion if even that, with the overnight GFS showing no FroPa (frontal passage) going into the 3rd week of March. Realizing, any forecast beyond day 6 under the current circumstances is suspect...beyond the normal "template of suspicion" which is usually about 3 days. Sound the all clear.

No comments: