|First Full Day of Summer 2014 Dawns at "The Jetty"|
TODAY: Not much change from previous posts nor all too much from yesterday's regime. Low pressure off the Florida east coast has lifted north and is being more absorbed into the mean 500mb flow pattern with other various 'bubble lows' being forecast to form off the Carolina coasts. Otherwise, early morning convection (showers) has formed almost near the same location along the West Coast well north of Tampa as was the case yesterday at this same time frame. Moisture over South Florida not quite as deep today as yesterday but chances are outflows from the north and moisture convergence resulting from a better chance of a sea breeze over "The South" will result in some action there as well.
Though steering is very light from the west chances are the better likelihood that storms will move into an area will be a result of propagation of outflows as opposed to steering - - directly. Not so sure a sea breeze will from north of the Vero or Sebastian area today either, esp. to the North where storms might begin to spread toward earlier in the day, though it's not completely impossible a sea breeze could form (if so, it would remain well east of I-95 if not US1). Any 'on shore ' wind in some areas might be more a result of outflow from a storm that has move offshore in the general vicinity as opposed to true 'sea breeze' generated results.
Biggest hazard today in general since it is a weekend is Lightning since there will be plenty of water related activities going on during this first full summer weekend (astronomically speaking).
There is a 'chance' storms might back up more toward Central Florida by later in the day making for some larger rainfall totals, but the reality is it's anyone's guess how the day will end in Florida during the summer.
|Peaceful Sunday Morning|
BEYOND: The GFS and the ECMWF apparently are not in full agreement as we work toward the Tuesday or Wednesday time frame per discussions from the NWS Offices. The question is not so much if there will be storms and showers as much as where they will end up each day due to the storm steering currents.
The biggest question is the ever guiding ridge axis across Florida in the summer months. If the axis which normally runs from east to west is over South Central Florida and further south, the storms get steered toward the East north of Lake Okeechobee; however, if the axis is directly over Central or north of there, all activity remains away from the east coast beaches for the most part and remains inland.
Additionally, there might be some days in the coming week where moisture won't be as ample for storm generation on some days more than others. Temperatures aloft are not shown to warm as much as the GFS was showing previously, so there could be some stronger storms for the east half of the state on the days the sea breeze can form, moisture is amply enough, and steering is toward the east .
Outside of a few mitigating situations, there doesn't seem to be a significant change in the overall scheme of things in the next 7 days, with storm chances remaining (somewhere) and little changing other than as noted above).