"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Saturday, December 27, 2014

Mild to Very Warm the Next 10 Days (at least)

"..they will be as many as the sands of the seashore"
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY: Warm to 'very' warm with temperatures running 'at to above' normal and muggy with early morning fog or low clouds possible any of those days. Warmest days appears will be Sunday and Monday (Tuesday south of 528) as well, with highs in the lower-mid 80Fs in a few locations away from the immediate sea shore.  Afternoon high temperatures though will largely be dependent upon cloud cover or lack thereof on any given day.

A 'cool' front is forecast to sink south down the peninsula on Tuesday with cloud cover and possible some showers Central late Tuesday afternoon into early evening. Wind almost immediately wings around to northeast to east behind the boundary so lows might never get below the lowers 60Fs along the immediate east coast south of The Cape along the A1A corridor from Cape Canaveral south through the keys Wednesday, Thursday mornings. 

...The Seventh Step

NEW YEAR's EVE/NEW YEAR'S DAY: Chances of cloud cover and maybe some sprinkles near the coast as a secondary 'cold plunge' impacts most of the west half of the U.S., especially the Inter-Mountain Regions of the Rockies eastward into the North Central Plains state. Meanwhile, Florida will continue to be 'the hot spot' as herds of wild buffalo and snow geese flock south, man your 'insanity' locals. Temperatures will be crazy cold out west, but Florida will remain 'high' and for the most part, 'dry' as well.

With a frontal passage on Tuesday, the quick wind shift would induce a fairly long lasting 'coastal trough' along the Gulf Stream waters and to the east of them which could induce periods of cloud cover or even some fog mostly during the over nights to early-mid morning time frames once again. no truly dry air is foreseen nor are cold temperatures forecast the entire first week of January (so far at least).

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Wednesday, December 24, 2014

Highs into the 80F's - Strong Storm Chance Dwindling?

TODAY: Warm with a southerly wind becoming more SSW-SW during the day, highs in the upper 70Fs into the lower to mid 80Fs mainly south of I-4 with warmest temperatures inland (Central) and all of South Florida away from bodies of water. 

Chances of showers south of I-4 after 3pm through dark, but not thoroughly convinced these will take on the form of thunder though there is a remote chance. Overall, the scenario from the last post is becoming 'less threatening' in regard to severe weather, with some guidance suggesting that many areas might not see rain at all today or tonight. The upper level trough is deepening more toward the west toward Texas rather than further east with the most upper level support for a continued QLCS type  (Quasi-linear Convective System) squall line dampening out as the lower level features outrun that upper level support.

A tornado watch is currently in place across most of the Panhandle this morning as the Storm Prediction Center based in Norman, OK. , suggests that it might need to be extend further east in their 7:AM update.

THIS AFTERNOON: Again, warm this afternoon outside of any shower chances. The cold front on approach is not forecast to reach diagonally across Central Florida until well after midnight. Some guidance suggests that the front itself will go through completely 'dry' other than cloud cover with not a significant drop in temperature behind the boundary, with lows falling behind it only into the lower 60F's south of a line running from Titusville toward Tampa Bay . Though some stronger storms are possible near I-4,   winds from the surface up through the mid-upper levels will become increasingly unidirectional with height in the midst of poor lapse rates and weak surface instability; thus, this appears to  be a cause for a weakening 'squall line' with time with some moderate to heavy rain showers with some lightning aloft) possible as far south as shown. As of this early pre-sunrise hour, the graphic below 'might' even be overly generous on the 'strong storm' side of things

(though some glancing strikes are possible a bit further south as well.)

CHRISTMAS EVE: Cloudy with a chance of light showers after 7PM. The better 'rain chance' now appears will occur from after 2:30 pm through 6:pm prior to what will remain of a pre-frontal 'trough' mainly south of I-4. The front itself will still be many hours away. Temperatures running mainly in the lower 70Fs most of the evening with 'gooey' air mass conditions.

CHRISTMAS DAY: Front will have cleared to South Florida by mid-morning in a vastly weakened state with a lingering boundary but barely even clearing the state. Cloud cover to decrease all of North Florida at first into Central but suspect some high clouds might begin to stream back in later in the day from the southwest. Highs mainly in the mi-upper 60Fs toward 70F , warmest South Central and South Florida.

DAY AFTER CHRISTMAS: No longer looking to even be a hint of 'cold'. Wind to veer more northeast to east northeast remaining light with lows in the lower 60Fs near the coast and a bit cooler inland (colder north Florida). This day might also see cloud cover to partly cloudy skies with showers near the east coast south of Sebastian inlet as the frontal boundary remnants begin to lift back north.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK: Saturday might be a bit cloudy once again but temperatures return to the lower-mid 70Fs , coolest at the coast north of Fort Pierce as sea surface temperatures off Cape Canaveral this morning have been hovering around the 67F -68F mark, and the light onshore flow will affect those nearest the ocean for the next several days. Clearing possible though on Sunday, so as of now, Sunday looks like the nicest day post-Christmas.

BEYOND: Next front not slated until another week from now, in the meantime we'll experience continued somewhat cooler evening and mild afternoons, running close to or a bit above seasonal norms.

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Monday, December 22, 2014

"Weeping May Endure for a Night, but Joy Comes in The Morning!"

TODAY: The 'Winter Season" Officially began at 6:03PM Sunday Evening. Comfortable temperatures with little fan fare other than persistent bands of light to moderate rain across mainly North to far North Central prevailed under otherwise pleasant temperatures and increasing cloud coverage which we will be under off and on through the first parts of Christmas Day, though not sure South Florida will ever clear.

TONIGHT-TUESDAY: Continued pleasant and 'muggy' conditions as far as December norms run, with temperatures running at to a bit above 'normal'. A cold front will be approaching Central Florida late Wednesday into early Christmas Morning. Otherwise, warm again Tuesday but not as warm as could be due to cloud coverage. Rain chances look to be very low however

WEDNESDAY= CHRISTMAS EVE: Chance of strong to near severe storms appears limited to a line running from Southern Volusia County west toward north side of Tampa Bay and north. Heavier rainfall totals are also in for the making especially closer toward I-10 as a series of 'impulses aloft' pass along the slowly progressing frontal boundary.


Rain chance then increase for all of Central Florida after 1pm Christmas Eve Day and more say as we head toward the 2:30pm time frame through 10pm. Latest guidance in the rainfall fields are not showing much in rainfall totals however, likely due to poorer low level lapse rates and antecedent cloud coverage despite the favorable winds that otherwise could call for severe weather; hence, no bets are solid on whether strong severe storms could occur  , but the rain chances do look pretty good, if even for only a brief period in any one location. It does look like it could be raining in various locations across almost any where in Central or North Florida during the normal Christmas Eve church services, but exactly where is not possible to determine at this time.

"Weeping May Endure for a Night. but JOY Comes in the Morning"

THURSDAY = CHRISTMAS DAY: The front will be clearing Central Florida around midnight through sunrise Christmas Morning with WNW-NW winds to follow. It does not look now that it will be either as cold as previously thought nor as windy .  Clouds might be slow to clear though, especially running along a line from near Vero Beach toward Sarasota zones, and even so Central should be clearing from north to south through late morning into early afternoon . Otherwise, any showers will be long gone out of Central although a stray one cannot be ruled out up until around the 1pm hour across that region. For the most part though, clouds will be the rule until later in the day except South Florida will they will persist. Christmas Day looks to be mild with temperatures mainly in the 60Fs and closer to the lower-mid 70Fs parts of South Central / South Florida, though again, clouds might be about the only issue for at least part of the day.

BEYOND: Not much now to speak of. Guidance is backing off an any significant weather catastrophes to head toward Florida but balances that off with continued mild temperatures running near to above normal (though not 'hot' by any means). The coldest day over all foreseen now is the Day After Christmas and even that is nothing more than what we've already experience more than once since November.


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Friday, December 19, 2014

Increase in Rain Chance Late Sunday - Possibly Severe Storms Tuesday Evening

But He replied to them, "When it is evening, you say, 'It will be fair weather, for the sky is red.' "And in the morning, 'There will be a storm today, for the sky is red and threatening.' Do you know how to discern the appearance of the sky, but cannot discern the signs of the times? "

TONIGHT - SATURDAY: Little change in the current pattern in all regards with periods of some high clouds and cool temperatures The real shift in the pattern commences on Sunday as winds become southerly and a warm up ensues. There has been not a whole lot of change since the previous post nearly   5 days ago (at least), but guidance has jumped to and fro   in regard multiple times since it was made in regard to 'will it rain or not ?' 'if so, "will it be storms or only light rain or drizzle?' or "will it get really cold perhaps colder than it's been yet this season?" , or "will it not get all that cold as it now looks after all"? 

These are all questions that have arisen off and on the past few days   up through this morning   with the final resolve being right  back where we started and that being, 'a chance of some storms possibly strong to severe and perhaps some localized heavy rainfall totals(for this time of year) coming up next week".  
The other question then  was, "but if so, then when ?" .

SUNDAY-MONDAY:    6:03PM  WINTER BEINGS Sunday evening. 

Increasing high clouds working down into the mid levels from west to east during the day. Chance of rains along the west coast perhaps before dark spreading east with time by late night and continuing into most of Monday across Central Florida. There is a chance of some thunder with this activity as well but 'severe' storms (so far) will probably not be an issue with the position of the jet stream as being depicted. But wouldn't fully count it out either. Even if there is only heavier rain storms, could be some pretty strong wind gusts.

TUESDAY: Previously the GFS was showing two fronts going through and one lifting back north, but this is no longer the case. No fronts ever actually go through but do approach North Central Florida before lifting north and setting up for 'Round 2'. Both Monday and Tuesday might be cooler than depicted due to cloud cover and the low sun angle this time of year but otherwise we could be seeing mid-70Fs for temperatures  .     

LATE TUESDAY: Model runs this morning are not easily accessible from either of the two more commonly utilized websites, but if the third option  being seen is correct ( for the second run in a row now) the GFS is implying that there is a chance of Severe Weather Late Tuesday toward late afternoon or early evening up through perhaps as late as near sunrise Wednesday morning or the morning of Christmas Eve. 

If the GFS implications are correct, a Tornado Watch might well be necessary especially all of Tuesday night across all of Central and North Central Florida . At time, it appears there might end up being a  QLCS Squall Line moving through with precedent storm cells forming as well, but time is still early and things could change easily, and if so, we'll be able to whittle down to a more realistic time frame.

CHRISTMAS EVE:  Gradual clearing and breezy after mid-morning Wednesday morning with W-WNW winds gusting over 22 mph in the afternoon and cool with highs in the lower 60Fs falling quickly with the setting sun. After dark, lows falling into the lower 50Fs to upper 40Fs and winds dying down through out the night and into Christmas Day.

CHRISTMAS DAY: High pressure following the stormy previous days will be centered very close to over head making for a clear , nearly calm day, with highs in the mid-60Fs , maybe a bit cooler. Winds then swing to more southerly by the next two days as another front approaches. 

Will that front also poise for another potential severe bout? So far, it's up and down , back and forth on the verdict, way too far out in time to say, but wouldn't surprise me one bit. These kinds of events tend to come in families during the winter months, as the period from around the  Dec 38 -January 3rd continues to reflect a wavy, disturbed weather pattern overall.

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Sunday, December 14, 2014

Pleasant This Week - Big Changes Loom From DEC 21 - 31

Cold Winter Morning Collides with High Tide

TODAY- UPCOMING WEEK: Very pleasant, cool weather continues with   colder mornings as high pressure at the surface is to migrate across Florida early in the week with two possible 'frontal passages' on the way which will go through dry, at least until possibly next weekend. Monday and/or Tuesday could be near "Chamber of Commerce" like days with near calm winds with abundant sunshine, though there are hints we could be in for some periods of Cirrus Cloud decks streaming over head though timing is difficult to nail down (but there does appear that some on Monday which might hold temperatures down a few degrees in the afternoon if so, and not be as stellar as was advertised in previous model runs). Otherwise, The next front appears slated for early Wednesday as a non-event only to reinforce the current conditions we've seen of late.

BEGINNING THE DECEMBER 21 - 25 TIME FRAME: The GFS has hinted for a number of runs the past few days that some big changes could be in-store for the Eastern half of the U.S. in various ways, especially along the Gulf Coast states, Florida and up the eastern seaboard.  It's too early to say for certain what and how things will manifest, but the implication is for one if not two 'potential' near severe-like opportunities very close to Christmas Day as well as 4-6 after Christmas Day as well could be on the Holiday Platter. It's all speculation this far in advance, but such a pattern has occurred in the past in recalling a year when a Severe Thunderstorm Watch was issued on Christmas Eve and of the same year a Tornado Watch on New Year's Eve for once the pattern sets up, shes' good to go.  We'll just have to see what the winds of change will roll this way.

Otherwise, expect continued cool to very cool mornings with some slight modification in the morning temperatures toward the east coast later in the week but afternoons for the most part will begin to see the steady stream of the 70Fs range from low to mid 70Fs for the most part, with lows in the mid-upper 40Fs inland toward and into the lower-mid 50Fs (mainly at the east coast beaches) later in the upcoming week.

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