Chances of showers south of I-4 after 3pm through dark, but not thoroughly convinced these will take on the form of thunder though there is a remote chance. Overall, the scenario from the last post is becoming 'less threatening' in regard to severe weather, with some guidance suggesting that many areas might not see rain at all today or tonight. The upper level trough is deepening more toward the west toward Texas rather than further east with the most upper level support for a continued QLCS type (Quasi-linear Convective System) squall line dampening out as the lower level features outrun that upper level support.
A tornado watch is currently in place across most of the Panhandle this morning as the Storm Prediction Center based in Norman, OK. , suggests that it might need to be extend further east in their 7:AM update.
THIS AFTERNOON: Again, warm this afternoon outside of any shower chances. The cold front on approach is not forecast to reach diagonally across Central Florida until well after midnight. Some guidance suggests that the front itself will go through completely 'dry' other than cloud cover with not a significant drop in temperature behind the boundary, with lows falling behind it only into the lower 60F's south of a line running from Titusville toward Tampa Bay . Though some stronger storms are possible near I-4, winds from the surface up through the mid-upper levels will become increasingly unidirectional with height in the midst of poor lapse rates and weak surface instability; thus, this appears to be a cause for a weakening 'squall line' with time with some moderate to heavy rain showers with some lightning aloft) possible as far south as shown. As of this early pre-sunrise hour, the graphic below 'might' even be overly generous on the 'strong storm' side of things
|MOST LIGHTNING RESTRICTED TO ALONG AND NORTH OF I-4 |
(though some glancing strikes are possible a bit further south as well.)
CHRISTMAS EVE: Cloudy with a chance of light showers after 7PM. The better 'rain chance' now appears will occur from after 2:30 pm through 6:pm prior to what will remain of a pre-frontal 'trough' mainly south of I-4. The front itself will still be many hours away. Temperatures running mainly in the lower 70Fs most of the evening with 'gooey' air mass conditions.
CHRISTMAS DAY: Front will have cleared to South Florida by mid-morning in a vastly weakened state with a lingering boundary but barely even clearing the state. Cloud cover to decrease all of North Florida at first into Central but suspect some high clouds might begin to stream back in later in the day from the southwest. Highs mainly in the mi-upper 60Fs toward 70F , warmest South Central and South Florida.
DAY AFTER CHRISTMAS: No longer looking to even be a hint of 'cold'. Wind to veer more northeast to east northeast remaining light with lows in the lower 60Fs near the coast and a bit cooler inland (colder north Florida). This day might also see cloud cover to partly cloudy skies with showers near the east coast south of Sebastian inlet as the frontal boundary remnants begin to lift back north.
WEEKEND OUTLOOK: Saturday might be a bit cloudy once again but temperatures return to the lower-mid 70Fs , coolest at the coast north of Fort Pierce as sea surface temperatures off Cape Canaveral this morning have been hovering around the 67F -68F mark, and the light onshore flow will affect those nearest the ocean for the next several days. Clearing possible though on Sunday, so as of now, Sunday looks like the nicest day post-Christmas.
BEYOND: Next front not slated until another week from now, in the meantime we'll experience continued somewhat cooler evening and mild afternoons, running close to or a bit above seasonal norms.