"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Tuesday, September 2, 2014

Chance of Stronger Storms Late Thursday through The Weekend

"Like Something From Thousands of Years Ago"

TODAY/WEDNESDAY: Little change from latest pattern of last few days so not much to say as temperatures aloft won't be varying too much and moisture will sufficient for greatest coverage along to north of I4 toward the west side of the state, as well as toward SW Florida. Other than a random ocean showers coming ashore, the east coast remains in the clear in regard to rainfall with storms piling up along the west side, with strongest storms very late day along the west coast sea breeze collision with the east coast one. 

Changes appear to be on the way though on Thursday and more definitely Friday through Monday at least of next week.

"Summer Treasures"

FRIDAY-SEVERAL DAYS ONWARD:  Strong to perhaps a very isolated Marginal Severe  Storm or two Possible . As the GFS has been trending and perhaps another model comes to close agreement per a National Weather Service (NWS) Discussion, colder air loft is approaching. Colder than has been around for a few weeks even now with 500mb temperature to drop up to 5 degrees from what they have been and 700mb about 2-3 degrees, varying at times. 

This amounts to stronger storms, with steering varying from slowly toward the east to a stand still and perhaps a bit toward the west in the next week. Most activity to be 10 miles inland or more from either coast. With 700mb temps not 'too cool' most activity will hold off until after the sea breezes set in but that will have to be taken on a daily basis as the time gets closer. Thursday into Friday will be the biggest transition day and those days tend to have a few surprises. 

POSSIBLE REASON FOR GREATER STORM COVERAGE WITH STRENGTHThe GFS (Global Forecast System forecast model) has been implying perhaps 2-3 open TUTT (Tropical Upper (Level) Tropical Troughs) could pass by to the south to over Florida, and maybe a tropical wave or two. each   associated with colder air aloft and/or greater moisture. Varying sky conditions at almost any time day or night if the GFS implications unfold, though it was the latest run this morning that made the strong implication   so far. Time will tell. But the overall scheme of things is for a change from what has been the pattern of late. The locations least likely to be most impacted by the cold air aloft and increased moisture is the Florida East coast  general within 2 miles of the coast since eastward steering looks like it will be too weak for storm impacts there, though not entirely so.

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