|November 23rd 2013 - Cape Canaveral Water Sprite|
TODAY: Most pleasant day in quite some time! Warm, light winds (finally) for a change, but big wake up calls are on the way by Sunday morning. Warmer tonight with light winds in front of an advancing frontal boundary.
SUNDAY: Cold front appears will lie across Central Florida near the Beach Line Latitude right at sunrise within an hour either way. Clouds along the boundary with increasing North to NNE wind behind it, lagging by nearly 6 hours but working down the east coast from early morning to early afternoon. Though the day might start out with light winds and warm for morning lows (mainly south of I/4), but noontime winds could increase significantly especially at the beaches as pressure gradient increases.
Rain not really expected but stratocumulus deck could rapidly form as modified cold air sweeps across the relatively warmer Atlantic ocean waters. Possible sprinkles near the beaches but not worth mentioning really. High temperature from Central and north might be realized early in the day with falling temperatures into mid-later afternoon then leveling off east side. Overnight lows in the upper or mid 40Fs west central and colder north Florida toward nearly 61F along A1A Cape Canaveral and south as not expecting temperatures to fall that much right at the beach from Canaveral South after around 11pm Sunday night . (NOTE: Another front is to pass through Thanksgiving Eve ( so far)and a similar temperature regime behind that one is expected as well ( ***graphic below).
MONDAY/TUESDAY: WInds quickly wane going into late Monday and start to veer toward the south. Low pressure expected to form along the northern Gulf of Mexico to track east to ENE in the next 48 hours afterward crossing near the Florida Border or just south of there then paralleling the U.S. East Coast off shore.
So far, this low/front system is expected to only truly impact parts of the Deep Southeast states and Florida though theMountains of North Carolina might see some snow from it (rain elsewhere).
Possible Severe weather/ strong storms due to mainly straight line winds in storms but a tornado potential of opportunity could exist mainly south of I-4 near the East Coast southward toward Ft Pierce and inland but in general all of Central Florida Tuesday afternoon to early evening...but would watch South to near I-10 or I-4 toward South Central Florida Tuesday afternoon into early Wednesday depending on track and timing of surface low, and strength of that low. This is still SEVERAL days away and a lot could change between now and then as often is the case.
Model Guidance varies between and within model run-to -runs themselves, but the writing is on the wall that there is a chance of this potential, thus a heads up in advance for your info as far as a blog post goes. The National Weather Service and News Outlets will most certainly be addressing the situation if conditions continue to warrant as such.
BEYOND: Thanksgiving Day - Possibly Breezy and cloudy especially near the coast, cool once again (a bit like that of what it will be like later tomorrow, Sunday)...going into at least the first half of the Thanksgiving Weekend with conditions slowly improving with time. Rain not expected but cloud-cover and winds are always a possible nuisance for such events as the Cocoa Beach Art Festival to be held over the weekend and related activity.
FURTHER BEYOND: Might be worth watching for another potential severe weather event 6-7 days later around the 5th of December. As has been the case so far this season and often is, a larger scale pattern appears to be setting up, which is really only a variation of the one we've been in for the past month..and storm tracks tend to duplicate for 2-3 rounds of the same before a greater shift in the large scale pattern can occur.