"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Saturday, March 10, 2018

A Little Gnarly Come Sunday into Monday - Then Colder Again

TODAY: Per satellite image below and a rather complicated evolution of mid level lower pressure over the Southeast states in the next 48 hours, the forecast for timing of any rain / storm events and the nature of them is still rather sketchy. In the previous post (Tuesday) it was mentioned there could be possibly strong storms on Sunday. That has not changed.

Otherwise for today, slowly warming and moistening of the atmosphere (finally)  with increasing high level clouds especially South and South Central later in the day (it now appears). Otherwise light Southeast wind and rain free other than maybe later more toward South Florida.


SUNDAY: Sunrise will be at 7:36AM and sunset at 7:28PM.

Pre-frontal type trough ahead of a developing cold front to enter the picture across Florida in the midst of warmer temperatures again but with cold air aloft, increasing moisture, and destabilizing atmosphere with increasing wind shear and some directional shear points to possibly even 'rotating storms' (at least slightly) if they can get going. Best chance of rain from early to mid-morning west coast working east though some activity might be able to go up toward the east coast (mainly south of I4) on it's own some time after 1PM.

Still looks like with directional/speed shear and sufficient surface based instability and cold air aloft the potential remains for strong storms. Some areas could see some 'good rain' in the next 48 hours but then again some locations might end up with very little to none at all.  The rain chances shift south going into Monday afternoon (eventually).

Noting , that the OFFICIAL FORECAST from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC)  is also eyeing North Florida on Sunday for Strong storms

MONDAY : Frontal boundary should be near Central Florida before sunset as rain chances end. Again a chance of showers or thunder on Monday mainly south of I-4 with temperatures still in the mid-upper 70Fs and some lower 80Fs possible. Sun will be setting Monday evening at 7:29 PM.

TUESDAY - WEDNESDAY: Front will have cleared. Breezy and cool like it was this last go around. Dry as well, which does not fair well at this time of year with increased fire risk.

THURSDAY: Another front might well go through in a secondary surge of what is now showing to be extremely  and unusually dry air for this time of year. Colder yet again with this surge but we round the corner pretty quickly going into the week end after which no rain or cold air is foreseen for quite some time afterward.

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Tuesday, March 6, 2018

Chances of Rain Tonight/Early Wednesday (& Storms Sunday )

Surfing at Jetty Park Cape Canaveral, Florida
TODAY - TONIGHT: Warmer and breezy with south - southwesterly wind . Mainly 'sunny' south of I-4 the majority of the day. Cold front now cutting through the panhandle (see below) to work toward the I-4 come late overnight   to be near a Cape Canaveral - Sarasota line between 7-8AM Wednesday morning. Chance of showers and maybe even some thunder with the front mainly near the West Coast from Sarasota northward and along to north of I-4.

WEDNESDAY: After front works through early in the day (Central) and later in the day (South) westerly type wind in the 10-15 mph. Though with the front there might be a brief period of gustier wind it  appears that will wane off as the day progresses. Clearing sky with highs in the lower-mid 70Fs.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY MORNING: Much cooler, akin to the past 'cool spell' with interior morning lows in the lower 40Fs up toward the mid-upper 40FS more widely spread. Appears the immediate Barrier Islands of Brevard and south  will see closer to lower 50FS and warmer still far South Florida. Wind will not be quite as breezy though as it was the past few days during our previous cooler period as highs strain to reach even 70F on Thursday and Friday or if they do, it would be but for only a brief time.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON- SUNDAY: Next front on the way. This boundary and accompanying 'air mass' might yield a better overall rain chance , and there might also be some storms (possibly strong) along with it. 

Atmospheric Parameters that would support stronger storms have been continuously showing up now for several days in the GFS guidance, but exactly when and where (if so) is hard to say other than 'somewhere closer to and south of I-4" between early Sunday morning to as late as Sunday night' (depending on ones location). In short, nothing definite yet but still looks like some much needed rain will again be on the way, with the 'threat' of possibly stronger activity with it.

Cool again after this frontal passage  but nothing more than what we just saw and will see come this Thursday- Saturday morning .

Latest GFS has a secondary boundary coming through "Monday" that could potentially yield showers or storms again,  but that is a new 'card in the deck' and not sold on it just yet. If it is out of it's league, then after Sunday there would not be a rain chance again Monday nor will be one for at least a week to follow.

FAR OUT: Long range guidance implies several more opportunities for rain or storms spread out about 6-10 days apart from each going into early April, which is about the norm this time of year. Any rain would be a good thing, given we are in the midst of and slowly nearing the end of the 'Dry Season" (the "Wet Season 'typically beginning  to as early as the last 10 days of May or  as late as the second week of June, depending on the year).

SATURDAY NIGHT: Day Light Savings Time begins -

 Set clocks Forward one hour before hitting the sack Saturday night.

Sun will rise later in the morning, but set later in the early evening.

Days continue to get longer on either end by a minute or so
 all the way to June 21.

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