"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Thursday, March 1, 2012

Warm Through Saturday, Isolated Showers Possible

In Green is where isolated showers 'could' occur today ( already in progress toward SE Florida late this morning) although quite small in stature. More details follow below. In Orange is where a rumble just might be heard after 3:30pm -9pm if a slight seabreeze can manifest and remain east of or near US1. This chance (of thunder) looks very remote however.
TODAY:  Frontal boundary manifesting toward the East Central Plains to move through the Ohio/Mississippi River Valley Basins tomorrow with more severe weather likely, as relayed in the previous post. This system (tomorrow) to the north of Florida will not be the last to impact areas near and east of the Mississippi River in this first week of March (one more to follow ). The early morning image taken from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) website shows where those experts are watching in terms of severity coverage:

SPC Example from early day today. The next version to come out  later today will likely differ but the threat is clear. Many areas that were hit by severe weather toward Kentucky and through Southern Ill/Indiana could be hit again tomorrow.  
OTHERWISE - Locally. SW wind today with sunny to partly cloudy skies will result in warm temperatures in the low-mid 80Fs with upper 80Fs possible toward East Central interior. Winds just above the deck are also SW, but not so strong that a weak seabreeze could form but remain very close to the coast during to just after peak heating hours between 1-2:30pm. It appears that although no model shows an easterly component wind, they might not be considering the density of the cold air just above the cool ocean waters at this time of year. Thus, a sea breeze could manifest, but likely remain east of US1 or I95. Possible showers especially later should the sea breeze manifest. The first image shows possible thunder in orange, but if so this will likely be limited to one or two heavier showers assuming they can manifest at all. The fact that showers are already occurring toward Eastern South Central and Southeast sections and that showers manifested yesterday toward interior and eastern sections yesterday (later in the day)...should be at least construed as a potential harbinger for late day activity as noted above.  

TOMORROW-SATURDAY: With each day the chance of a sea breeze developing becomes less likely (especially on Saturday) as the storm system's frontal boundary approaches and pressure gradient southwest winds increase. Would not be surprised to see low 90Fs readings eastern portions of Central and South Central , especially on Saturday with near zero chance of rain that day (and no sea breeze). The far east coast, especially the barrier islands have a propensity to 'overshoot the high temperature forecast mark' on a solid "SW wind day" as we enter March. This winter was not horribly cold for any long duration, and even short duration cold spells were rather rare, thus water temperatures are not as cold this time of year as they were last year during the same time frame (early March).

SUNDAY: Change begins and to last through most of next week. Phase one of the change will  be the cold front now indicated to pass from North Florida beginning Saturday to reach Central very close to sunrise give or take 2-3 hours either side of the Central Dividing Line running east - west from SR 528 and West toward Tampa. Most precipitation will occur right along the boundary and behind it due to some over-running. The GFS could well be playing out the high temperatures behind the front in too extreme a  'cold' fashion as is often the case with this model, considering it showed overnight that highs will never make it out of the low-mid 50Fs on Sunday after a warm early start to the day near sunrise to mid-morning. The NAM is much less aggressive and in opposition depicts highs in the 60Fs on Sunday. I suspect the high temperature on Sunday WILL occur prior to 8AM Central either way. Not ready to take a leap either way at this point as to how cool the afternoon temperature will end up at this conjuncture; either way, Sunday stands to be at least cloudy with light showers possible through noon toward 2pm, with high clouds clearing slowly toward late afternoon. South Florida remains "prefrontal' until early afternoon, so more convective type showers and maybe thunder possible portions of South Central and South through 4pm (Keys) at most. Showers are the more likely mode, and much later to ever clear prior to sunset.

Otherwise, very cool to cool all day Sunday with a breezy NW wind slowly dwindling toward sunset and overnight, although not completely.

MONDAY: NNW-N winds and continued cooler with highs in the mid/upper 60Fs to near low 70Fs, mainly South Central/South. Scantily Partly cloudy.

TUESDAY- FRIDAY (at least): A secondary front just above the deck near 2000 ft will complete the transaction of the entire system's (well to the north) passage,  and bring winds around to NNE-ENE during the day on Tuesday. Thus ends the cool spell with very temperate ( very little) variations between overnight lows and daytime highs (especially near the coast) with a steady and breezy onshore flow taking control. 

This flow will be rather moist in a shallow layer, and it appears now extensive low-mid level clouds could be in the offing, as well as showers near the coast most likely beginning Tuesday afternoon through at least Saturday. Thus, much of next week looks less than ideal as opposed to this week currently in progress of drawing to a close.    

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