"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Monday, December 19, 2011

Very Warm With Possible Storms on Christmas Day?!

Morning Global Forecast System (GFS) Model Forecast for the surface at 7pm this evening shown above. Indications are 'on' for possible severe (orange) weather primarily in Central and SE Texas, with a broader expanse of thunderstorms as well (yellow roughly speaking). Florida's weather is being dictated by high pressure ENE of the state at the surface which will move a bit further east during the week.

TODAY- THURSDAY: Weather for most of the state between the remainder of today remains pleasantly benign albeit a bit breezy at times during the afternoon, especially near the coast and open larger inland lakes. Partly cloudy sky, no showers with highs ranging through the 70Fs. There is a small chance of enhanced cloudier periods toward the East Coast, with a possible spittle of drizzle or rain here or there from time to time by late Wednesday, but most likely could have foregone mention. East to ESE winds today gradually curve (veer) toward the ESE-SE then SSE by Thursday. Warmer around the 24 hours beginning overnight tonight when evening lows will not fall as low as previous days, especially along the east coast South of I-4. The trend continues statewide through Thursday, most warmly noticeable beginning Wednesday. Numbers on the temperatures really not necessary, whatever you've felt where ever you are located recently other than yesterday, will be similar to those.

The first official astronomical day of Winter will be on the 22nd of the month this year, or Thursday, technically as the clock reads. It is always somewhere within the 21st-22nd time frame. 

FRIDAY-CHRISTMAS DAY (SUNDAY): The low pressure area shown in today's graphic will be moving toward the NE as indicated. The trailing cold front in model runs of the GFS is showing less and less of a likelihood of ever impacting the state other than possibly the panhandle area with a rain chance. Otherwise, the remainder of the state remains fairly quiet with temperatures approaching above normal once again, the ongoing theme so far this season (and year as well). However, as the parent low moves NE ward toward New England, another system could form along it's tailing flank in the Deep South. It is that second system late in the week and into the weekend that will require closer scrutiny for potential  future 'impacts' statewide.

 Ironically, two of the first full days of full fledged "winter" could be close to the warmest we've experienced in some time, with highs reaching toward the upper 70Fs and low 80Fs, especially on Christmas Eve Day (Saturday). There is also a chance of showers and just possibly some thunder across Central or South Central Portions mid-late afternoon Saturday and into the evening. It is too early to say with any level of certainty given the number of days remaining until then. The situation does bear watching if for no other reason than well, let's face it, there has been nothing worth noting over the peninsula in quite some time other than a few periods of rain  showers and  flat topped stratocumulus clouds.     

The morning GFS run indicates the front to cross the state only slowly all through Christmas Day with possible thunderstorms, but for now will ride with rain-showers..with good coverage. This is all a new prognosis from the model though, so again, a few more model runs to go to gain greater certainty regarding Christmas. ..and will add the day after as well if this morning's run were to verify as truth.

BEYOND: Much cooler 'whenever' the front can go through. But again, this is a new evolution since previous days..and could easily shift back to 'benign weather' mode by this time tomorrow. Chances are this first system now in development in the Southern Plains region today is throwing a wrench into the equations. Thus low confidence outlook from Thursday and beyond.

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