"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Monday, March 28, 2011

Off and On Again Unsettled Through Early Friday

Post-MCS (mesoscale convective complex of storms) mammatocumulus clouds over Cape Canaveral at 9:15am this Monday morning.

RECAP: A complex of storms, some containing gusty winds, crossed portions of Central Florida early this morning and is now weakening as it pushes through South Florida. Below is the enhanced infrared satellite image clearly depicting the storm complex, coupled with the radar image saved at about the same time frame.

A severe thunderstorm warning was issued for South Brevard County, but the strongest of winds reported were actually to the north of the storm from Patrick AFB to Cape Canaveral, where winds gusted to 49mph near a Center Street mesonet reporting 'tower'. Winds remained in the 20-40mph range for a good half hour is the storm collapsed sending continued outflow northward.

Below is a more recent satellite image. We see the MCS has weakened while a newer complex has formed over the Gulf, the rains associated with the newer complex are now moving across Central Florida as I type.
Weakening MCS South Florida with a newer complex over the Gulf

Recently saved radar image shows more storms moving across Central Florida. Freshest activity is popping up every 10 minutes I go back to re-investigate the situation.

TODAY: To be frank, model guidance for today is of very little use. Ongoing convection is leaving model guidance in the dust. No outstanding features of note other than a frontal boundary across North Florida and notable mid-level lapse rates providing lift. Now guidance indicates this feature MIGHT sink toward SR528 or south of there  by day's end through the first portions of Tuesday before retreating North to the FL/GA border by Wednesday.  But I'm not laying down any bets on any of the model solutions. Therefore...

Today, with convection in redevelopment as I type, and afternoon yet to approach, believe Central Florida will see at least one or more rounds at any one location of rain, some heavy with lightning and strong wind gusts through late afternoon. Activity is not organized so a watch might not be issued for severe weather, but any one storm could reach severe limits.  The NWS will issue warnings and special weather statements for any potentially significant pockets of stronger storms. 

 Best bet is to be weather wary and carry an umbrella when venturing out. Although there is not a severe thunderstorm watch out at this time, one 'could' be issued, but based on latest information available and based on previous activity being non-severe, a watch seems unlikely...but don't bet on it. Things could change very quickly going into noon time and the afternoon hours.

TUESDAY: Now, per model guidance, could see a lull in activity...however, this would be in departure from the previous model runs so will handle tomorrow's weather in a later post. From best I can tell, continued unstable mid-level lapse rates (with cold air aloft) is keeping the convection going as minor ripples in the west to east flow flow cross the state, the timing of which is very difficult to ascertain. But the area that seems most likely to continue to be impacted is South Central/North Central Florida, not to knock of far north Florida as well. In fact, about the only area that appears immune to this activity will be far South Florida and the Keys.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY: Again, because the models are suffering from feedback from the  morning MCS...the daily basis forecast is difficult until the main 500mb trough moves east of the state, which appears will not be until sometime Friday. At time, the Storm Prediction Center is already watching Day 4, or Thursday going into Friday for a more significant severe weather outbreak which totally jives with the evening GFS run. This would be from April Fool's Eve (all day) into the morning of April Fool's Day. To be in a Day 4 outlook in our part of the country is unusual, so take that piece of information with caution. This could be a 'very big deal' later in the week.

Outside of the rain chances..temperatures will run about normal..perhaps a little below during the afternoons and warmer than normal overnight due to cloud cover. Again, though, the NAM has Central and South Florida warming to near or above average on Tuesday. Stay tuned to local nowcasts...and  especially to developments heading toward Thursday. Before then, it will remain unsettled from time to time, with periods of completely benign weather...perhaps running for a good 18 hours in any one location before the next rain chance approaches. 

In summary, don't believe everything you hear regarding future days until all is said and done. Expecting compounded model discrepancies from reality as events unfold on a daily basis.

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