TONIGHT - SATURDAY: Little change in the current pattern in all regards with periods of some high clouds and cool temperatures The real shift in the pattern commences on Sunday as winds become southerly and a warm up ensues. There has been not a whole lot of change since the previous post nearly 5 days ago (at least), but guidance has jumped to and fro in regard multiple times since it was made in regard to 'will it rain or not ?' 'if so, "will it be storms or only light rain or drizzle?' or "will it get really cold perhaps colder than it's been yet this season?" , or "will it not get all that cold as it now looks after all"?
These are all questions that have arisen off and on the past few days up through this morning with the final resolve being right back where we started and that being, 'a chance of some storms possibly strong to severe and perhaps some localized heavy rainfall totals(for this time of year) coming up next week".
The other question then was, "but if so, then when ?" .
SUNDAY-MONDAY: 6:03PM WINTER BEINGS Sunday evening.
Increasing high clouds working down into the mid levels from west to east during the day. Chance of rains along the west coast perhaps before dark spreading east with time by late night and continuing into most of Monday across Central Florida. There is a chance of some thunder with this activity as well but 'severe' storms (so far) will probably not be an issue with the position of the jet stream as being depicted. But wouldn't fully count it out either. Even if there is only heavier rain storms, could be some pretty strong wind gusts.
TUESDAY: Previously the GFS was showing two fronts going through and one lifting back north, but this is no longer the case. No fronts ever actually go through but do approach North Central Florida before lifting north and setting up for 'Round 2'. Both Monday and Tuesday might be cooler than depicted due to cloud cover and the low sun angle this time of year but otherwise we could be seeing mid-70Fs for temperatures .
LATE TUESDAY: Model runs this morning are not easily accessible from either of the two more commonly utilized websites, but if the third option being seen is correct ( for the second run in a row now) the GFS is implying that there is a chance of Severe Weather Late Tuesday toward late afternoon or early evening up through perhaps as late as near sunrise Wednesday morning or the morning of Christmas Eve.
If the GFS implications are correct, a Tornado Watch might well be necessary especially all of Tuesday night across all of Central and North Central Florida . At time, it appears there might end up being a QLCS Squall Line moving through with precedent storm cells forming as well, but time is still early and things could change easily, and if so, we'll be able to whittle down to a more realistic time frame.
CHRISTMAS EVE: Gradual clearing and breezy after mid-morning Wednesday morning with W-WNW winds gusting over 22 mph in the afternoon and cool with highs in the lower 60Fs falling quickly with the setting sun. After dark, lows falling into the lower 50Fs to upper 40Fs and winds dying down through out the night and into Christmas Day.
CHRISTMAS DAY: High pressure following the stormy previous days will be centered very close to over head making for a clear , nearly calm day, with highs in the mid-60Fs , maybe a bit cooler. Winds then swing to more southerly by the next two days as another front approaches.
Will that front also poise for another potential severe bout? So far, it's up and down , back and forth on the verdict, way too far out in time to say, but wouldn't surprise me one bit. These kinds of events tend to come in families during the winter months, as the period from around the Dec 38 -January 3rd continues to reflect a wavy, disturbed weather pattern overall.