"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Tuesday, July 12, 2011

Similar To Yesterday - Buyer Beware, Results Can Vary

GUST FRONT looking north toward the Canaveral Air Force Station early Monday evening. The storm itself was well to the north. This cloud formation was created by low level, cool outflow winds encountering warmer and more unstable air further south and out of the rain and clouds

TODAY: Overall placement of the low level ridge axis has changed little from yesterday. The main difference today from yesterday is that yesterday there was a mid-upper level low pressure circulation over SW Florida with a trough axis extending toward The Cape, which left more clouds overhead until mid-afternoon. That system is not in play today, so the clouds were absent at sunrise. This in turn, is allowing a broading expanse of land mass to get heated up, and consequently more unstable over Central Florida. Otherwise, winds aloft are quite similar. 

NOW: There appears to be a mid-level disturbance entering NW Florida as of 1pm. This is triggering some rain showers that likely will become thunderstorms with time of short lasting duration initially.  Over SW Florida (coastal) sea breeze induced thunderstorms have already developed close to the coast. Meanwhile, over the Everglades it is once again the most unstable, primarily only at the surface. Thus, rainshowers have already begun in this uncapped and unstable enviroment. With onset of a stronger Lake Breeze suspect that thunderstorms will be in the offing in short order in that region, which could cover a vast expanse. Although, do not think they will cover as much terrain as yesterday since precipitable water values are lower today in South Florida. Regardless, there should be some good coverage, an reach very close to  eastern shores of the Lake into Palm Beach and Martin Counties (amongst others).

LATER TODAY: Like yesterday, it's a waiting game to see when, where, how, and why the strongest of storms...perhaps only 2 or 3 will form after 4pm. Storm strength should peak between 4:45pm - 7pm. I have annotated where I believe this should occur with more text below for the reasoning. HOWEVER: this reasoning is based solely on the current conditions. Model guidance, at least in regard to precipitation fields, was not followed.
EARLY GUESS FOR ACTIVITY FROM 2PM and Beyond. (Thunder along the West Coast was not included since it is currently in progress in a few locations).
 THIS AFTERNOON: Thunder to the north generated by disturbance aloft which should be shifting just south of due east this afternoon. Sea breeze north of Daytona Beach might have a hard time forming and might not be an extra boost for storm strength today.  Further south, the sea breeze has already formed but is likely sticking very close to the coast and might not get much further west than I-95, of if so not until after 5:30pm toward Central Brevard and South.  The area along th purple line seems to contain more mid-level moisture, but that could easily change. This would be one of those "not shown but needs to be watched later" type areas, especially into Eastern Osceola County toward Deer Park and Hollopaw.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON: As noted on the graphic, strongest activity should commence in isolated manner as the sea breeze reaches it's peak strength with two hours after peak inland heating. Winds just above the surface seem to be strong enough from the west to make this a fairly shallow sea breeze. Dew point depressions start to low after peak heating at the same time, so low level mositure convergence along established wind boundaries could set things off. The strongest storms will manifest the greatest rainfall potential and lightning strike potential. Overly strong winds are not anticipated. There is a minute chance of perhaps pea sized hail in the event that one particular storm updraft manifests some unforeseen microscale favorable environment, mainly near I-95 or in toward North Osceola County toward Narcoossee.

TO CONSIDER: A lot of yesterday's activity left all kinds of dormant wind boundaries over Osceola County as well as around North Central Brevard toward Seminole and Orange Counties. Whether those boundaries are present could not be determined, but it would not surprise me.  Storms will begin to be their strongest along the East Coast Sea breeze in Volusia County and should work southward along the East Coast sea breeze with time, much like yesterday. 

Note that actually storm motions from west to east will be close to nil south of Daytona in a sense, storms will build along (propogate) along  whatever direction pre-established boundaries exist combined with the boundaries any storm itself creates. AND, this does not take into account any new OUTFLOWS from today's activity as well. Thus, for the most part, it is impossible to say for sure just where storms will be today, only the nature of when the strongest should happen.

The area that will be hardest pressed to see a strong storm if the sea breeze really picks up after 4pm could be the A1A corridor of Brevard County. This would be due to the cool ocean waters that currently reside along the coast. This is a typical phenomenon for this region, especially near Canaveral caused by upwelling of cool, deep waters to the surface. This upwelling usually persists for 3-4 weeks in July most summers.

BEYOND: More challenges with the local, mesoscale thunderstorm weather regime through Thursday, although on the large, synoptic scale not much changes as the low level ridge axis meanders around South Central to South Florida. It does look like more as if SE Florida will get into the stronger thunder activity perhaps on Wednesday.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY: The determining guiding ridge axis feature will pull away from the state just a bit, it will also lift north toward Central Florida. Steering remains weak, so this synoptic scale event will essentially shift the thunderstorm activity over South Central and South Florida further to the West with not as much of as an impact north of Daytona Beach to those along I-95 or east in regard to this ongoing pattern. Although, there is a chance that early day activitiy could form along the east coast seabreeze toward US1 around noon time.

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