|Wednesday Morning Sunrise (Cape Canaveral)|
TODAY: Boundary that had been across Central Florida early yesterday morning slid south to far South Central Florida yesterday afternoon into the evening. Guidance is split on what happens today with it, but will suspect it will lift a little back north again today or simply re-emerge further north.
Much cloudiness and some light rain persists over parts of South and South Central Florida today. All in all , however, not much change from yesterday in that most areas that received rain yesterday are prone to that chance today (see below #1)
It appears the pattern since Colin's departure aside from the trailing boundary from that storm aforementioned in previous posts is being complicated by a bit of a blocking pattern in the upper levels over the Western Atlantic in the Upper Levels near and in the 'Jet Stream Level". This is evident on water vapor imagery loops. A weak upper low well to the east of Florida has been dropping SSW and is now south of the eastern tip of Cuba and weakening the past few days yet while another gyre of dry air is pressing in from the east and moving west from east of Puerto Rico. (See below : #2) This is resulting in a bit of a 'squeeze play'' from the Yucatan up and across the far SE Gulf of Mexico and the southern 2/3rd of Florida.
The Deeper Moisture however runs mainly south of a line running from near Oak Hill on the East Coast over toward Brooksville on the west coast and that is where the rain has fallen with the focus along the weak/oscillating surface nuisance boundary especially which is why it is the focus for one more day.
Not sure it isn't but all by gone already though. E.G. The GFS and in part the NAM implies more of a boundary up between 3000 -7000 feet lifting north as a bit of a pseudo-elevated 'warm front' only in its inverted nature, and if that is the case will be watching for a concentration of potentially largest rainfall totals today just a bit further north than yesterday with a focus along a line running from near Vero - Sebastian on the East Coast toward near Sarasota on the West Coast along the 'surmised' superficial implication per model guidance.
FRIDAY - SATURDAY: Little change is being reflected by guidance but surely on 'the day to day basis' differences will inevitably appear. Regardless, it now appears that rainfall chances (and more so disturbing the annoying cloud cover) with not all that much in the ' thunderstorm category' apart from more isolated instances which is still possible will be Smuggly with us for a bit longer.
BEYOND: The next big question is: 'What of next week?"
Per some forecast discussions from Official Sources NW flow aloft and drier air might be in the offing; so far the take of The Blogger is a bit different.
The last two runs of the GFS are apparently not in agreement with the ECMWF (European Model) and will run favor a slant with the GFS.
If it is correct, a frontal boundary emerging from a large upper level Low embracing much of the Northeast states into early next week will drop toward Florida result in SW flow in combination with colder air aloft ; and with sufficient moisture (but not overly so) for afternoon and evening thunderstorms, some possibly on the stronger side come the Tuesday and/or Wednesday time frame up through the end of next week.
The only 'fly in the ointment' if that is to be so is that on some days the SW wind just 'off the deck' appears too strong to permit sea breeze circulations to come into play ; however, upper level energy (vorticity) does if that pattern were to become made manifest.
|"Oh Really Now"|
Therefore, the 'question for next week week' is : 'Which form of 'guidance' is more helpful to the soothsayer?
For now, riding with the GFS: "Strong summer like thunderstorms possible much of next week into next weekend" and will monitor to see if the GFS changes keys from Be Sharp to Sea Flat.