"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Tuesday, October 24, 2017

Potentially Active Period Ahead Through Sunday

Winging It A Bit on The Forecast
TODAY       Not much change from previous post. Latest surface analysis based on the 10AM  reported surface observations places a rather 'broad' cold front's leading edge along a line from near Port St John extending  WSW (West Southwest) toward South Tampa Bay or a bit south of there. 

     The front is not expected to make significant further southward progress for much of the day, and might still be located in Southern Brevard  or Indian River County even at sunset. There is still ample moisture up through 10,000 feet to yield at least cloud cover behind the boundary for a good 50 miles or even some lower topped showers behind the boundary or on it, and perhaps some thunder further south, especially after 2-3PM (South Central Florida).   

      There was quite a bit of rain last night, though most missed out on "The Action" while asleep. Some rainfall totals across North Brevard from near Cape Canaveral, parts of Merritt Island, Port St John, Titusville were between 4-5.00" of rainfall. 

I know my street was completely underwater , the parking blocks in the street were as islands, the only sign that there was even a street there. But come sunrise, 'all better now'.

TONIGHT: Front will press on south and clear South Central Florida sometime after midnight. The driest of air, however, will still not have moved into all of Central Florida   Wednesday morning, yet will be on the way.

WEDNESDAY: Lows at the beaches south of the Cape in the lower-mid 60Fs but a bit cooler west of I-95, and even cooler further north. Skies will likely have cleared all of North Central by sunrise or will be about to.  Brisk NW will yield highs in the mid-70Fs during day time heating as incoming cooler air is mixed to the ground level.

WEDNESDAY EVENING - THURSDAY MORNING: Coolest morning by far since around last April.  Wind will have weakened substantially as the driest of air also will move down most of the peninsula after dark, with true 'drying' commencing for all of Central shortly after midnight. 

The drier the air, the lower the ambient  outside air temperature can go.  

Thursday mornings lows over Interior North Central in the upper 40Fs mainly , while in contrast from near the Cape southward we will be seeing temperatures in the 56-59F range, give or take plus/minus 2 degrees F , in general. Otherwise, continued clear skies with highs in the lower 70Fs and light wind. Near Chamber of Commerce type afternoon in store.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY : At the 'beaches' south of the Cape wind could progressively become more 'on shore' most notable a bit after sunrise Friday morning. Regardless, the ocean water is still warm and any onshore wind component prior to sunrise at the immediate beach will greatly make a difference to those in its proximity.

 Morning lows at beach might be only a bit cooler than the previous day time high temperature in some locations or be within 5F degrees of it; however, any fluctuation in any one location to westerly wind will make a big difference . Regardless, all areas to warm up rapidly between 9-11AM. No rain this day.

SATURDAY: Before the cool spell is even over we will be hearing more and more about the 'goings on' down in the far Southwest Caribbean.  Already, the NHC is outlining for a '50% chance of development' sometime after Thursday morning. The NAM model  portends like an automated fortune teller that barely has the cooler air moved out than that we will have a Named Storm to the south. The GFS and ECMWF are less generous. 

As it is at this time , there's a 50/50 chance of a named system as noted (whatever that means who can say), so why elaborate any further? 

 It can make a big difference. Ironically, if the system is named and gains enough strength, the less likely Florida will be impacted. If it remains rather strained  to deeper development there is a chance the associated moisture and energy will be rapidly absorbed northward along the leading edge of the next cold front to be arriving in the Sunday time frame. If the storm be named and then sustains it's strength, chances are it would be diverted to far off to the east of South Florida to have much impact, but for the Florida Straits and perhaps far SE Florida.

For now, will go with the 'weaker side' of guidance as a preventative measure in preparation for SATURDAY AFTERNOON - EARLY SUNDAY. If the system does not strengthen too much and is lifted northward, as the GFS and ECMWF imply..Saturday could be quite wet from South to North beginning early morning (South) into Central Florida by noon time or so. Continuing with rain, some heavy into Saturdaay night then mainly clearing out along a cold front first half of Sunday.

MONDAY-TUESDAY: Chance that again, it will be quite cool , even cooler than the forthcoming episode (but not by much). That is what the GFS is advertising, though will take those colder temperatures with a grain of pepper for now . It tends to overcast low temperatures in the long range (I've noticed as a general principle).

AFTER TUESDAY: Looks like we won't be seeing another cold front for quite some time once we clear early next week. 

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