"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Tuesday, March 23, 2010

GooFuS or ECMWF - Mix for "Storm Cookie Batter"

Images: Current surface plot, morning temperatures depiction, forecast plot for Wednesday morning

SYNOPSIS: Cloudy morning across Central Florida as a remnant, and mostly dissipated, cool front peters out across the center part of the state. High pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will build east and be situated directly overhead by sunrise Wednesday (as shown in the forecast image - the 3rd image). High pressure will continue to shift east and into the Atlantic during the day Wednesday as a cold frontal system moves across the Central Plains and into the Tennessee Valley Thursday. This system will be in our neck of the woods Friday with yet another one on it's heels either later Sunday or Monday. Timing of the second front, or even just how long it will impact us rain wise is the biggest fly in the ointment for this blog post.

TODAY: Cloudiness this morning will both erode from the west and dissipate overhead with heating of the day and as anticyclonic flow associated with high pressure pressing across the Gulf this morning begins to directly impact the Central portion of the state. Expect this afternoon to be dictated by clearing skies with predominantly partly cloudy to nearly clear skies by later in the day with a high temperature around 70 degrees. WNW-NW winds around 10-15mph. No rain.

TONIGHT: Clear and calm as high pressure becomes situated directly overhead. This primo radiational cooling 'situ' willl yield a somewhat cooler morning, but we will quickly recover within 1/2 hour after sunrise to what has become standard temperatures lately for the post sunrise hour or two.

TOMORROW: The high pressure will continue its eastward trek and move into the Atlantic. Winds to become easterly by late morning at 5-8 mph under continued mostly clear skies. There is a chance of some patches of stratocumulus clouds along the coast during the late morning to post noon time, but for the most part it should be nearly clear. After a morning low of 56 along the coast and much cooler inland afternoon temperatures will rebound into the low 70s area wide. Folks east of A1A, we're talking the very VERY immediate coast, might again see the temperature drop a notch or two once the easterly component winds ensue and advect air above the very cool ocean waters into that area....generating a temperature of 69 or 70 degrees.

TOMORROW NIGHT-THURSDAY: High pressure to continue into the Atlantic with winds originally easterly becoming SSE to south late in the period. Low Wednesday night around 62 along the coast and in the upper 50s inland. High Thursday in the low 70s along the immediate coast and mid-upper 70s west of I-95 and toward the west coast. More assuredly warmer the further south and west one goes, but not significantly so. Skies will have scattered clouds of little impact.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: Our slight warming trend continues as we finally approach what one would consider seasonable norms for the third week in March! For Cocoa Beach that would be a low of 58 degrees and a high of 78. Actually, our lows will be warmer than normal, but our highs will struggle to reach the required magnitude. Sigh. But not so bad.

After this past winter I think I've become a little 'thick skinned' and am willing to tolerate the last vestiges of cool air that Mother Nature can brew up. This, along with knowing that not all too soon dreams of wanting some cool air to move in will be in the making, makes tolerating the below normal highs a little easier to cope with for the time being.

BY FRIDAY, the first of two systems will be moving in. The day will dawn with a low around 66 degrees. Can you believe it?! And a high of 77 along the coast and closer to 80 well away from the coast (west of I-95). Winds will be SW on Friday with initially cloudy conditions due to a sufficient coating of high cirrostratus clouds in preamble to the storm system that will be moving across Dixie. A cold front emanating from this system will move into the area by late afternoon, but most of the energy associated with it will be too far north to have much of an impact other than a pretty decent chance of some rain showers and cloudy skies.

SATURDAY: This will be the most PRIMO day of the week! God grants small favors :-). And he picked the weekend to do so. Hmmm...on second thought...what with all the spring breakers around (say no more if you know what I mean). High in the mid-upper 70s and low in the mid 60s under partly cloudy skies. But be forewarned, a more potent system will be lurking just beyond the horizon, and may come in with a good punch by weekend's end!

SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME: Timing on yet the next system is a little sketchy still as of the time of this writing. One model, the GooFuS (GFS) is indicating thunderstorms for Sunday afternoon into the evening, whereas the European Model (ECMWF) is holding off on the front until Monday. Actually, I'm seeing that a nice blend of cookie batter might be the best option. A little GooFuS here...some ECMWF..and a dash of vanilla may yield some nice "Thunderstorm Cookies" for both late Sunday and early Monday. SWEET!! Regardless of the outcome, it will all be over by Tuesday with then ......

TUESDAY ON:.....with then.....a prolonged dry period with temperatures warming to above normal. Only time will tell (we're only talking a day or two) to what will occur late in the weekend. But we have plenty of that (time) to batten the hatches.

I'm very intrigued to see what is going to happen, particularly, Sunday afternoon and evening! And after that...will it really be warm 'forever on'?

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