"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Wednesday, December 29, 2010

Jack Frost Makes A Chillin' Pass Over Florida

Jack Frost might be " Chillin' and Killin'" but he seemed more 'meek and mild' along the coast. I guess the agriculturally inclined would be quick to differ though. Photos from my parking lot this Wednesday morning in Cape Canaveral.

TODAY: "Old Man Winter" has left, but he forgot his little 'bad seed' son, Jack Frost. With the first beams of "Little Miss Sunshine" though, Jack was long gone and the seemingly long awaited warm up we've been pining for began. It's going to be somewhat of a slow start from a Cape Canaveral line to Tampa Bay and points north, but south of this line the warm up has begun in much more detectable-to-the-skin fashion. But no matter how we consider it, this is far cry from the past three days. Was it only THAT long?!! Seemed like en entire Arctic Ice Age's worth of cold air.

STATS and SYNOPSIS: Another morning, that's two in a row, where all the major reporting hubs (climate sites) for East Central Florida reported record low temperatures, with Orlando totally blowing their previous low for the date of 34F of the charts by a full 10 degrees at 24F at the International Airport. If there's two places I'd never want to live in Central Florida it would have to be either Scottsmoor or Plymouth (Orange County) where this morning's low was 19F and 15F(!!!) respectively. Seems every where has its pluses and minuses, as these same locales get some good summer thunderstorms as well in the summer. Otherwise and as anticipated, frost was widespread this morning.

High pressure centered over the peninsula all evening will remain much the same all day and only slowly begin to reposition to just offshore after dark with a remnant low level axis extending across the same region as where I delineate the 60F degree isotherm to be situated this afternoon in the next paragraph (from Cape Canaveral to Tampa) . As such, winds to remain light and variable, dictated mainly by proximity to bodies of water (the Atlantic is just about at 60F right now by the way too) vs. where favorable pockets of land can heat up dictated by the vegetation, or lack thereof, that exists in an given large area uniformly. This high pressure circulation will eventually make a break from the land proper over night but for the most part the wind will remain light and northerly variable with temperature ranges as described below.

Did you see the smoke yesterday from the burns in South Brevard County?! From what I understand, it was about 13,000 acres worth of intentional burning, but it sure is causing some problems for anyone located downwind of the burn from South Brevard to maybe even as far southeast and downwind as West Palm Beach. Much of the smoke is trapped below the inversion level with particulates being encapsulated by the moistening air mass below it. Visibilities were greatly reduced in some locales for motorists creating hazardous driving conditions, but a mighty neat looking sunset for some last night. We observed from only Melbourne yesterday and it was obviously some serious burning was going on, although we did not know at the time if it was controlled or out of control.

FORECAST: To cut to the forecast chase, the big headline is "Warmer Everywhere!" for the state of Florida. Looks like the 60F degree isotherm for a maximum temperature today is going to be tickling the heart strings for those located somewhere around Cape Canaveral to Titusville this afternoon westward toward North Tampa Bay with widespread mid-50s further north, and mid to even some upper 60s further south. But the majority of the Central Strip along the Beach Line (SR 528) will be around 60F degrees this afternoon. The warmest spot will be from near West Palm to Miami along the east coast where 70F will be only a fraction away of not reached.

TONIGHT - THE WEEKEND: Progressively warmer most assuredly noteworthy overnight tonight as previously forethought, as a very light onshore wind component attempts to establish. Believe that low temperatures right along the coast will be realized around 3-4AM and then level off or maybe even go up a degree or two after that time frame, but the majority of Central Florida will dip down back to the low-mid 40s by sunrise. The coast will stay in the 50s overnight though.

Afternoon high temperatures Thursday will be in the mid-upper 60s everywhere with low 70s over South Florida. Sky conditions will be sunny with occasionally a few thin cirrus cloud streaks adding some character to otherwise blue skies and perhaps stratocumulus clouds teasing the SE Florida Coastline communities.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND: Things (temperatures) really level off along A1A, where there will be very little difference between overnight lows and afternoon highs with lows in the low to mid 60s and highs in the low-mid 70s. The difference becomes even less by Saturday or Sunday where very close to 70F will be within reach round the clock. At this time, the onshore component, southeast wind that will take shape on Friday does not appear will have much impact as far as the afternoon high temperature is concerned as it blows across the Atlantic due to how weak it will be...but do believe the first couple of blocks close to the water's edge will feel the 'chill' by a couple of degrees lower on the thermometer. But again, it appears these 'chilly' temperatures (which will feel more like someone turned up the air conditioner more than anything else) will be of zero consequence. The same folks near the ocean will make up for it overnight with warmer overnight temperatures as opposed to those further from the shoreline and inland.

NEXT COLD FRONT?: Technically, one cold argue we'll have a 'front' pass through Central Florida early next week, but the reality is that the front which will have been located over the Panhandle will be absorbed into high pressure both ahead and behind it...and as such any notice of its presence for south and/or only Central Florida will be a shift in what already will be a light wind of 10mph or less to begin with and a period of increased high clouds...and slightly cooler afternoon temperatures. As it stands now, South and Central Florida has swung into the full bore dry season (if we weren't there already) feet first with no precipitation within sight...that is, within sound reasoning and a Crystal Ball Guestimation.

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