(Image: Sunrise flame)
SYNOPSIS: High pressure encompasses the entire SE U.S., the North/Central Gulf, and the Western Atlantic. Low pressure is developing near Southern California. Stratocumulus clouds along the immediate east and southeast Florida coast overnight kept overnight minimum temperatures warmer than days past, with a 5AM temperature at PAFB of 74F, whereas Crestview, FL was a frigid 39F. Prior to sunrise the clouds broke up allowing the temperature to drop to 73F at PAFB and Crestview had dropped to 37F! It's likely they had frost there with a dew point also at 37F. Tallahassee was the second coldest at 45F.
TODAY: High pressure will continue to prevail over all of Florida today. The wind this afternoon to gain a more ENE-E component of light nature under nearly clear skies with some inland diurnal, scattered low topped cumulus clouds. Late afternoon and evening hours may introduce some nocturnal stratocumulus clouds along the east side of the state with an easterly, light breeze. Otherwise, it looks to remain dry in the rain gauge.
UP COMING WEEK: Low pressure near California will move inland and cutoff at the mid-upper levels. As a result, the main jet stream will ride up and over the low into SW Canada and take a dip across the mid portions of the country and into the northeast states (New England) where it remains a bit on the chilly side for morning lows. A secondary southern jet will round the base of the cut off and flow across the Desert SW-Texas-Northern Gulf and Florida. The low will gradually fill and move ENE with an accompanying cold front to enter the Deep South Tuesday and Wednesday but never really make it through Central or South Florida. The only affect from it will be to shift winds a bit to SE-SW for a brief time as high pressure to our east repositions. The winds will shift back to the NE as the front lays flat to the north and another bubble of high pressure approaches from the Northern Gulf and then to our north, re-enforcing the dry air mass overhead. Temperatures along the immediate coast will remain in the low to mid-60s with highs in the low-mid 80s. Inland temperatures will be both cooler in the morning and warmer in the afternoon, with highs in the upper 80s range by Tuesday and Wednesday. Other than a happen chance trace of rain late Tuesday or Wednesday (and that is being generous), things look to remain dry. Looks like we are headed for a record dry October over portions of Central Florida as it stands now. Most locales have received not even a trace, and where measurable amounts fell it was less than 0.10".
The first low will be absorbed by much larger low pressure circulations encompassing the Canadian Maritimes to the Hudson Bay area, as yet another one follows in its heels by next weekend. Meanwhile, the southern branch jet will continue in a modified form across Florida for the most part and the North and Central Gulf as we head toward next weekend and Halloween.
TROPICS: Continuing to watch the extreme SW Caribbean, but as things stand now given the current outlook for the continental United States and the Gulf, anything that does form down there now appears that it will remain out of the picture. Still need to watch what comes after the first aforementioned low yet to form near S. California though as well as the one to follow. Models have really shifted gears the past 24-36 hours and now take future development in this region westward across Central America north of Panama. The big story of the day is Super Typhoon Megi/Juan approaching the mountainous terrain of Northern Luzon of high end Category 5 Hurricane strength. Quite an awesome satellite presentation on this storm this morning.