A meandering cold frontal system is sagging south into the Southern Plains this morning. To the south of this boundary dynamics will still be favorable for severe weather in Upton, Reagan, and Crane counties of SW Texas and further east toward Abilene (at a minimum) by mid-late afternoon. Other parts of Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio will also see some severe weather today...and more flooding rains could eventually threaten already soaked Tennessee. Meanwhile..back at the farm...
...in East Central Florida we remain high and dry. With passing clouds and seasonal temperatures the pre-thunderstorm season of eventful-less days will continue.
TODAY In East Central Florida - MONDAY: Mundane weather continues.
Strong high pressure will prevail across all of the southeast states for at least the first half of this period, although Florida will be dominated by the high pressure for the entire time frame.
This means continued temperatures, sky conditions, and wind speed/direction as has been observed for the past several days already. But the winds of change might not be too far away.
LATE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: A coldfront will eventual work its way into the north part of the state..and slowly sink south toward Central Florida by Wednesday. Moisture at all levels of the atmosphere will increase across the region and temperatures aloft will cool somewhat. We could even see a sea breeze convergence set up on Tuesday and Wednesday with winds aloft that will steer any activity that does happen to develop toward the East Coastal communities.
THURSDAY-SATURDAY: Very undecided about this time frame. There are hints that a surface low could actually form in the vicinity of what will be a pseudo washed out frontal boundary by then off the Florida East Coast.
Could it be a tropical system in nature?!! Seems VERY doubtful at this time as water temperatures wouldn't really support this notion. But it's still interesting what one of the models is trying to do with the boundary regardless.
With that said...any thing after Wednesday remains "up in the air"...but one thing is certain. We won't be getting any cooler, it won't be getting any windier (in fact, it will be less windy than it has been lately), and we won't be getting any 'wash-out' conditions. Let's just ear-mark this time frame and look ahead to it in future posts to see if anything actually does develop or comes even close to what the model is indicating. I remain extremely skeptical that anything actually will.