"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Thursday, June 13, 2019

Strong to 'Near Severe' Activity Again Possible Today - 'Calming Down' into Weekend

"Severe Warned Thunderstorm" Approaching Cape Canaveral - June 12, 2019
TODAY: Final Day of 'Active Duty'' at hand - then a big pattern change toward typical summer weather ensues . 

Frontal boundary near the panhandle already active well before sunrise as showers and thunder storm activity progresses west to east across northern regions of the state.

Cloud cover from activity does not appear to be impacting areas further south (south half of state) as can be seeing from the infrared satellite image loop below which runs through 5:01 AM

Today  appears could be a variation of what occurred yesterday with the 'plus' of the frontal boundary finally making some southward progress along with associated mid-upper level triggers (to boot). 

Temperatures aloft will be like those of yesterday  with 500mb around -8.5C and 700mb around 7.5C  (give or take a degree or two) and moderate strong Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE). Instability therefore, will not be an issue today, and cloud cover as of now does not appear will act as a limiting factor for storm strength later. The biggest question is how far north will any 'stronger storms' be able to manifest. This post takes a conservative approach.

There were some 'officially severe' storm reports that blew in yesterday, and these are only in areas where winds could be measured officially (to be considered)

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All Roads Point to 'The Storm"

Greatest instability given the current showers/storm activity in progress should be near to and south of I4  with stronger upper level winds (though not significantly so) from Indian River County - Sarasota line and north which 'combined with sea breezes' really out front puts almost all of "East Central" in Prime Time.

Latest RAP Guidance and NAM soundings infer an east coast sea breeze will develop prior to noon (South Florida) and upward to Brevard County area by noon or shortly thereafter.

Given the colder air aloft, triggers  embedded in the flow as evidenced by early day activity accompanied by the local effects of the sea breeze collision as the west coast sea breeze works east  with slightly stronger wind aloft  - will shoot with the risk of strong to 'locally near severe' (weakly severe) across Eastern Portions of Central and South Florida. 

The biggest 'hazard' will still be mainly from lightning, though strong wind and perhaps hail could occur in very isolated cases. Heavy rainfall could rapidly result in some localized street flooding issues (or otherwise) in regions that have already became saturated from the rains of previous days. Again, would watch for a potential of funnel clouds and who knows, a waterspout somewhere?

Initial 'onset' of activity will  release outflow boundaries as that activity dissipates, and those boundaries merging with other ones combined with the sea breeze collision on the 'east side of the state' could all aid in sudden storm eruptions, especially near the coast. Yesterday's activity across east central was 'aided and abetted' but a large outflow boundary that worked south from North Florida which met up with the east coast sea breeze during to just after peak heating - thus, 'timing' in how things come together is critical in how storms will form and how strong they will be. One thing goes wrong, and the forecast is 'blown away'.

Blogger's 'First Guess at 5AM'

Activity will move off the east coast before sunset in almost all locations (other than some random showers) ..though a renegade storm could still exist over South Florida or even North Florida.  

FRIDAY - WEEKEND: Transition underway on Friday as what remains of the front will be over Central Florida. Steering will be quite weak on Friday and the east coast sea breeze will have no problem making inland progress, as too will the west coast sea breeze. There will eventually be some drying out of the atmosphere as well. 

Will lean toward yesterday's post rather than rewriting it all over again. The gist was, chance of early morning toward noon activity east coast then working inland toward the interior and west side of the state by late day all Saturday and Sunday . 

Also appears the upcoming set up might be good for the chance of waterspouts offshore, especially toward South Florida come the weekend, with very light to non-existent winds through the lower 10,000 feet of the atmosphere but with ample moisture. 

Heading toward mid-week the pattern looks generically, "Summer" -ish almost all regards all locations with the focus of activity over the interior regions.

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