"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Thursday, January 28, 2016

Marginal Risk of Brief Severe - Record Rainfall Totals Exceeded 2 1/4 - 4 " For Date

Search for the Catch of the Day

TODAY: One more day of off and on again rain (some areas much more 'on' than 'off) with a 'Marginal Risk' (in Storm Prediction Center (SPC) terms) mainly South Central - South of severe wind gusts and/or brief tornado. More rainfall records could fall. A few official reporting locations reported record rainfall totals for the date yesterday from Vero to Southwest Florida to West Palm though certainly other 'non-official' areas likely broke  records as well - those will go left unknown forever since no recorded logs exist for those areas.

OTHERWISE: One more Jet Speed max of 140kts is approaching Florida now approaching the South Central Gulf. Greatest instability will remain from near Lake Okeechobee and south. There appears to be two boundaries. One located in that area and a bit of a pseudo-version of it to stretch from near Tampa toward Port St. John to develop by noon time or so n the helicitiy fields. Forecast discussions are hitting on South and South Central (Miami even) ; however, latest guidance of 2AM is indicating a secondary area creeping northward toward "Dead Central" by noon time to be 'of effect' possibly through 3pm. That areas (south of the purple line below) would lack sufficient instability it appears at this time but will give it a heeding regardless).

Latest HRRR radar simulations are indicating some briefly stronger but very tiny pin-prick returns near Tampa and Canaveral area in general from late morning through early afternoon whereas South Florida by that time has little going on at all. Thus, a bit mystified at the current trend since 5AM that was not in place at the time some forecast discussions were being released.

TONIGHT-FRIDAY: Front to clear most of state other than South Florida by around mid-night or shortly thereafter with quick clearing of skies by Friday.

Friday will have brisk NW winds with a high barely eking into the lower 60Fs but at least it should be mostly sunny except South Florida where some high jet stream cirrus clouds might be in place.

SATURDAY: Very cool with decreasing wind  this morning with lows ranging from the mid-40Fs inland areas (Central and North) to near the 50F to mid 50Fs mark immediate East Coast Canaveral and South (warmest South Florida). 

Highs in mid-60Fs with light wind by afternoon. Saturday appears to be a very pleasant day apart from the chance of the veil of high cirrus clouds which will begin to clone themselves northward across most all areas south of I-4 and further north with time.

SUNDAY: Not quite as cool in the morning with a high in the lower 70Fs unless cirrus cloud cover is too much. Best chance of warmest temps well inland from the east coast north of West Palm and all of South Florida as winds will by then be southeast.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: Warm with highs approaching the lower 80Fs South Florida and Orlando area and west well away from the east coast where Atlantic water temperatures are in the lower-mid 60Fs. Don't know if we'll be hearing talk like "near record highs  possible" yet but it appears that might be possible. 

Next chance of rain emerges on Wednesday with the next front.  

Beyond this next front we might see a day or two of more 'Winter Like" temperatures reminiscent of our previous cold weather event but not for as along a duration   with a  limited coverage area as well. But as it is now, it could get cold again for a brief time. 

Additional potentially severe weather set ups are not being seen in the long-range forecast for the time being. 

All's clear! 

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Tuesday, January 26, 2016

Chance of Iso-Strong Storms - Possible Large Rainfall Totals Wednes Thurs Day

TODAY: Little change in forecast philosophy from previous post. Model guidance yet has come to closely sync up despite that 'said upcoming event' is less than 24 hours away (through 60 hours).

Some east coast showers have materialized lifting north as ingredients slowly come together during the remainder of the day into the over-night. Nose of 120 knot southern stream jet across the Gulf Mexico approaches Florida as mid-upper level impulses move across the Mexican Altiplano and Rio Grande Valley (RCV) regions.  Additionally, it appears another player might work in lifting north and east from the Yucatan Channel. 

Line of thinking is it is this impulse (if so) that would be the most responsible for any severe weather come early - late morning Wednesday for Southwest Florida to parts of the east coast any where from Sarasota and south through The Keys and up the east coast toward Cape Canaveral from the hours of 5AM - 11AM (from southwest to northeast with time).

WEDNESDAY: As noted above chance of an isolated storm, possible producing a quick tornado but otherwise some large rainfall totals. Storms do not appear they will necessarily be moving real fast unlike the previous events. There are other factors at play such as isentropic upglide and other terms which we'll leave out from discussion's sake, but be it so...adequate moisture and retreating warm air lifting north and over-running as as a bit of a wamr front forms.... combined with colder air aloft and increasing dew point air at the surface into the mid-60Fs with shearing winds (though not as strong as previous event) combined with difficult to time mid-upper level impulses either from the south (Wednesday) or west (late Wednesday through Thursday) adds up to a chance of the chance of some rather large rainfall accumulations for this time of years  going into Thursday if not even Thursday night as well.

NOTE: This would not be a 'continuous rainfall event'..there might well be a long break in any potential action from the first parts of Wednesday toward Wednesday evening (or other times as well).

Better chances so far for stronger storms appears to be first parts of Wednesday then again well after dark to just past midnight Wednesday night - Thursday as a second wave of disturbances approaches Florida from the west. 

But, again, timing and location of said disturbances is uncertain as is the degree of available convective potential energy. 

Like last  nearly CAPE-less events, instability has been lacking and this upcoming situation appears to be no different, though there might be more available than there was for these last 'forecast threat' before we had that cold spell along either the west of east coast or both of them for that matter.

THURSDAY: Again, more chances of rainfall but timing and locations are near impossible to determine without better guidance consistency. There is a chance as graphic implied that some locations might see in excess of 2-3" of rain when all is said and done, whereas some other areas might see 1/2" or less. It will depend mainly on where disturbances cross the state, but slower storm motions should allow rainfall totals to add up to more efficient rain gauge fillers this go around.

FRIDAY: Regardless of which model we look at, there appears to be consensus that all is pretty much said and done by around midnight Thursday night to before sunrise Friday.  Clearing on Friday and cooler with breezy NW winds with highs in the lower- mid 60Fs.

WEEKEND: Breezy at first and quite cool though not like our previous event. Lows in the mid-upper 40Fs to lower 50Fs and highs generally in the lower-mid 60Fs on Saturday but warming on Sunday.

Though Sunday will start out cool, by now we are getting a bit acclimated to the colder air and besides, it'll warm into the upper 60Fs at least by Sunday afternoon as wind already begins to swing around to southerly again.

WARMER MONDAY - THURSDAY afternoons with highs in the 70Fs and some lower 80Fs in a few locations. Dry as finally temperatures will average out to above climo.

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Monday, January 25, 2016

Frosty Start to Week: "Chance of a Risk" of Strong - Severe Storms Wednesday

TODAY: Last of the cold shot being felt this morning as wind has relaxed significantly and temperatures fall in typical fashion down the spine of the state and toward each coast. Frost might even be experienced as far south as Okeechobee this morning, even toward Punta Gorda in various low lying pockets and in the more rural areas though more urbanized areas for example parts of Orlando will remain unfrosted.

After the defrosting, temperature will warm today to the mid-upper 60Fs with light wind .  Compared to the past two days this will be a much welcome change especially after the locals have been toughed up a bit over the past few days. Nothing can touch us now! (Especially as that might have been the coldest period we will have all winter, or so it seems). Climatology says, "We are leaving the coldest time of year by week's end".

Chance that over night  high jet stream cirrus might begin to spread in from the WSW after midnight whilst we are sleeping and thicken a bit toward day break into the afternoon. ...  Tuesday will start out much different than Monday will end cloud cover wise.

TUESDAY:  A bit of a 'warm front' ( though very loosely speaking ) will lift from The South to Central early morning through mid-afternoon. It may be more of an extension of a coastal trough, but regardless some guidance anticipates some isolated shower activity with this boundary from South Central to Central Florida between early morning toward the 1pm time frame from south to north. 

Yet warmer with highs in the upper 60Fs to lower 70Fs. Highs might be held into the 60Fs though with the anticipated high clouds to move in. 

Any shower activity will be low topped as most moisture will be in the upper levels and the low levels leaving a dry and broad mid-level layer.

WEDNESDAY: Model discrepancy between the two big players, The ECMWF and GFS. has been on-going for the past 48 and continues even up through the evening runs.  As a result the extended outlook toward Wednesday/Thursday remains a bit of a mystery though rain looks certain for many areas.

 It comes down to a matter of exactly when and if so, how strong and placement of some of the surface features. Given what I'm seeing in the morning NAM combined with the GFS would not be surprised to see a strong to borderline severe storm or two across South Central to Central Florida from early Wednesday toward early afternoon time spreading from west to east as noted below. But if the ECMWF model starts to be the main player, that chance will be ramped up. There has been no consistency this season on which either model has played out as the dominant successor, but the GFS has all in all been doing a fine job, apparently up until this upcoming system (or so it seems).

Either way, would hold to the thought that there is a 'Chance that there will be a Risk of Severe Weather' ...that is to say, a chance of a chance...until models can come into better agreement.

THURSDAY:  GFS consistent at least as per previous post of some post-frontal cloud cover and/or rain fall in the cool air (50Fs) for a short time. Whether that will hold true is yet to be known but suspect it will in some fashion or another. And if so, for how long? 

FRIDAY-SATURDAY; Regardless, will go with whatever is to happen having cleared the entire state (except maybe far South Florida) by Friday. Cooler mornings and afternoons once again with temperatures running a bit below normal but nothing like this last visitation though one or both mornings might be a bit breezy and cold again...lows in the lower- mid 40Fs for Central and bit warmer South seems to be what is implied for now.

IN THE FAR BEYOND: No very cold shots are foreseen into the first week of February, if we can snake through to mid-February any real cold spells would likely be very short lived. On the other hand, though the "El Nino' pattern of late seems to be taking a Sabbatical in some regards, this might be but a lull in the action to draw folks into a false sense of security. Moving into February/March  might once again see more conditions for severe weather events aside from this upcoming Wednesday . February looks to be the most active severe weather month per historical data though March is often thought to be a more active one as well.

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Friday, January 22, 2016

Showers to Isolated Brief Strong Storms: Then Coldest of Season Yet Still

Storybook Mid Afternoon Thursday 

TODAY: No real surprises. Anyone who has seen the news or heard media outlets by now will know that there is a chance of a strong storm due to wind gusts or a brief tornado in quickly moving storm activity ahead of advancing cold front today. 

Southerly wind gusting to 20 mph late morning toward early afternoon to become more SSW - SW beyond 1 -2 pm. The time period for North Central and Central for a tornadic type spin-up appears to be from West to East roughly between noon - 2pm as noted in the graphic below. A secondary area toward the Keys and SW Florida might also be worth a heightened level of awareness a bit later in the day. Image below is only a guestimate. As of 5AM the Storm Prediction Center has a 'tornado interest' out for all areas north of the purple line drawn in across Central Florida.

Otherwise, chance of showers emerges between 10:30 - 11:30 AM across parts of South Central to North Central and North Florida both along the front itself and into Central along a quickly evolving pre-frontal trough as higher dewpoint air advances northward ahead of the front and along the trough. 

 The broader 'threat' for today is gusting winds in and near any storms but even in only some rainshowers . In general , apart from SW Florida the main interest will be on strong straight line winds. Any and all weather events will be quite brief but regardless, potentially 'disturbing'.

Front to clear all of North Central toward Central in the 5-6PM Time frame. See below

Best Guess for Cold Front's Position around 5PM
FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY: Nothing new here. Rather breezy post frontal passage (FROPA) through Friday night and all of Saturday. Wind from the west gusting upward toward 30mph and much colder with temperatures  Central holding in the lower-mid 50Fs all day. Still watching for at least a broken cloud deck across the sky in the lower levels until at least mid-afternoon if not longer with a few sprinkles here and there if not even showers toward the West Coast.

SATURDAY NIGHT- SUNDAY MORNING:  Coldest / driest intrusion to punch southeast from the panhandle after midnight. Jury is out on just exactly how cold but the NAM model for example now is teetering with the freezing mark in such locations as the Orlando area toward I-95 as far south as South Central Osceola County. 

The immediate beaches from the Cape toward Vero Beach might see anything between 34F - 39F with wind from the NW around 10-15mph as wind will have died off a bit as the parent surface low moves further away and the pressure gradient relaxes. 

The GFS model is not quite as cold however as the NAM , running about 5 degrees warmer particularly toward the east coast.

SUNDAY: Very cool again all day after the coldest morning yet of the winter season but much improved sky and wind conditions. Highs in the mid-upper 50Fs with winds relaxing more and more as the day wears on.

MONDAY: The coldest air on this 'drainage morning' will be closer to the Orlando area and west down I27 toward the Tampa region. The immediate east coast from the Cape and south could well be 10-15F degrees warmer Monday morning than Sunday with light wind. Highs in the lower to mid 60Fs.

BEYOND: Tuesday looks to warm into the 70Fs and to be a very pleasant day 'round the clock. Next front slated for the 27-28th time frame. 

So far, the next front will not be like our previous visitors and might well lollygag a bit before making it's final exit. It will be a very shallow boundary at first.  

For example, on Wednesday the surface front is shown to be running diagonally from NE to SW across North and Central Florida while at only 2000 feet above ground the boundary is still back in the panhandle.

 Looks like a chance of storms though on the 27th well in advance of the front (Central and South)followed potentially by a brief over-running rain period and with very cool temperatures before the colder and drier air finally works south and east going into late week.  Maybe even some thunder mainly Central and South Florida Wednesday afternoon.

THURSDAY: Continued chance of cloud cover and/or some rain even in the post-frontal environment.

BEYOND: Cooler and dry, with very cool to cold morning inland locations. Light wind for several days stringed together. Temps running around 'normal' for this time of year.

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Thursday, January 21, 2016

Chance of An Isolated Strong/Severe Storm Friday - Coldest Yet All Sunday

El Nino' Sunset Wednesday Evening
(See Image end of Post for Sunrise, Same )

TODAY: Gradually modifying air mass over the state today with continuance of high cloud jet stream cirrus clouds streaming overhead as seen on visible satellite animation loops for the Gulf of Mexico, Florida to Mexico. Light wind otherwise with highs in lower 70Fs , tempered by the high clouds.

TONIGHT - EARLY FRIDAY: Somewhat of a warm front will lift rapidly north followed by southeast to south wind increasing in strength toward and after sunrise Friday. Higher dew point air will attempt to lift northward as front moves in from the west with a possible 'squall line' of some thunderstorms and brief but heavy rain-showers especially over the Loop Current and possibly impacting the Western Panhandle region. 

Chance that some  supercells will occur well west of Tampa possibly visible on their radar, but unlikely such creatures will make it to shore at least not with the same caliber.

MID-DAY FRIDAY: Chance of showers almost anywhere emerges by mid-late morning  especially along the West Coast from Brooksville south through Sarasota and possibly even the peninsula. Some of these could be strong to severe near the Tampa Bay area give or take 30 miles north/south. 

Though no guarantees tomorrow of 'severe' weather the signals are pretty strong for sufficient bulk shear coupled with cold air aloft down through the mid-levels for at least 'very windy rain showers'.  Probably becoming a bit overcast though wouldn't tell that from looking at the forecast high temperatures tomorrow well into the mid-70Fs all of Central/South Florida. 

Still calling for the Central Zones in general to bear the heaviest impact from this next system which is indicated in the graphic that follows.

Developing storm system over the Deep South might slow down forward motion and take a bit of a negative tilt as the Southern and Northern Branch jets attempt to coalesce and as a result.....

LATE MORNING - MID AFTERNOON: Forecast discussions from the weather offices note that the NAM model might be too slow on the fronts arrival, for if it were correct the chance of stronger storms increases. 

However, the GFS which was faster with the front seemed that it MIGHT actually have been picking up on a pre-frontal trough and not the front itself (as noted yesterday might be the case). 

For the more worse case scenario as a 'just in case' measure, will go  with the prefrontal trough quickly taking shape late morning to early afternoon down the spine of the state as both the morning NAM and GFS runs seem to be saying the same thing now in that regard.

Surface based instability will be limited but bulk shear and some directional shear / convergence along that trough could provide for limited low level forcing along that boundary , if so, some stronger activity would come together down the spine of the state as far south as maybe even northern Okeechobee County but be very isolated. 

See below:

Cold Front west of Tampa (1PM).
Better chances of strong activity shown to be Central Florida
and Much of the Panhandle region (earlier in the day)

 Brief Window of Opportunistic Misfortune appears will be from 11AM - 3PM Central Florida and a bit sooner West side of State though this could change, especially if there is no pre-frontal trough at all in which case the Risk factor is even lower . 

There are no official forecasts from the Storm Prediction Center for Strong Storms tomorrow Central Florida ATTM (at time).

BEYOND: Chance of showers and cloud cover continues into Friday evening though very sparse  and at least into early-mid morning Saturday as gusting westerlies kick in behind the strengthening low pressure system pulling well away from the state in the post-frontal environment.  Chances are we'll be seeing a clearing at first but then more clouds might move in later.

Cloud cover for at least the morning hours Saturday in the form of lower clouds with breaks which might become wider going into the afternoon hours.  Highs in the mid 50Fs with winds gusting over 25mph.  

SATURDAY will be mostly cloudy to partly cloudy at first with gradual improvements but timing is questionable as to how fast we clear out. The sooner the better; regardless, windy and very cool never seeing 60F .

SATURDAY NIGHT: Rapid clearing so far seems to be the consensus if not earlier on, but especially toward midnight; and thus in ushers the drier slot of cold air in from the north northwest.

SUNDAY MORNING; This stands so far to look like what might be our coldest morning at least wind-chill factor wise  on a statewide basis this winter with lows well into the mid-upper 30Fs many parts of Central Florida. Waters in the area of Brevard are still relatively warm which then might have a modifying effect on the outer Barriers, regardless, even upper 30Fs to lower 40Fs (immediate coast?)  with gusts of wind to 25 mph won't make for beach picnics this morning nor into the afternoon where lower 50Fs if not some upper 40Fs far North Central will be the norm this day.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Wind should begin to notably decrease by early-mid afternoon.

MONDAY: Wind will die off rapidly after dark (and sooner on Sunday ) toward   such that Monday should be dawning with very light wind amazingly shown by the GFS model to be from...the east ..but more than likely more of a 'drift'. That wind though might not make any impact even at the beach until well after sunrise.  But here's recovery for us, highs in the mid-upper 60Fs already. Yipee!

BEYOND: Guidance between models according to forecast discussions out of the NWS Offices who have better access to data are not making any bets yet regarding the next front toward midweek next week (roughly the 27th). 

For now will go with what was already stated..another chance of storms but so far implications are of even lower caliber strength wise than tomorrow which is lower than it was the other day. 

But who knows for sure in either regard at this point?  But given the current nearer term outlook, suspect there will be more instability available on Wednesday if latest trends through Tuesday being shown continue and we might be watching South Florida more.

Thursday Morning El Nino' Sunrise

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Wednesday, January 20, 2016

Strong Storms Possible Friday , Then "Down We Go Again"

Self Explanatory

TODAY: No surprises this morning per yesterday's post - the temperature forecast this morning would be especially an agriculturists nightmare as some TV stations are now scrambling to make fine tuning adjustments.  As suspected, the high jet stream cirrus that had dropped to South Florida late yesterday suddenly began to buckle back north toward midnight which affects how cold it will get (warmer underneath that protective layer as heat cannot more fully radiate back out to the atmosphere). 

Some freezing temperatures are noted across regions such as Brooksville for instance whereas in other locations once the clouds moved in only a very slow additional falling is being observed since midnight if not before that time. Oh nuts!

Despite that these clouds might remain in place (see image below) as they stream across from the west - southwest roughly along and south of I-4 it should still be warmer today as heights in the mid-levels will begin to rise in advance of the next system to cross the Eastern U.S. in the next 60 hours.

Highs today generally in the lower to mid 60Fs with the clouds across the south half of the state (for how long can't say but might be at least into the afternoon hours to even sunset).  

High pressure passing across the Deep South just north of Florida will continue out to the east and return easterly flow will commence though at first very light and but barely detectable. 

THURSDAY: Increasing easterly to east-southeast flow. Inland morning still very cool but nothing like this morning. Immediate east coast will really notice the change, but all areas will be considerably warmer tomorrow morning and into the afternoon with highs in the upper 60Fs through the lower 70Fs.

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING: Increasing southeast wind  will draw moisture northward in advance of an approaching front .  

Suspect a line of storms will form over the Gulf of Mexico well west of Florida as a prefrontal trough forms just in advance of that feature almost right over the Peninsula going into late Friday morning. 

Instability might be a bit higher than it was from the previous system per forecast Lifted Indices  and there is some directional shear with that feature but more in the speed shear ; there does appear to be ample forcing to sustain rainstorm/possible thunder activity with the front itself.  

Appears that overnight Thursday Night into Friday morning a warm front will lift rapidly northward up the state followed by solid southeast to eventually south-southeast to south winds in the 15-20 mph range, possibly gusting by late morning to early afternoon in advance of the next system. 

FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Chance of Strong to Risk of Marginally Severe Storm activity mainly in the form of  straight line winds / gusts. 

Forecast soundings as of the latest guidance show not only sufficient bulk shear but very cold temperatures in the mid-upper levels coupled with inverted V- Soundings due to some remaining drier air very close to the ground. 

Any parcels of very cold air falling through that drier air at ground level means 'accelerated descent' near the ground - it all spells out to gusts potentially in the 50 - 68 mph range if any decent updrafts can form. Even in and near rain showers wind would be quite gusty regardless.

Many areas will not see such winds should this end up being the situation,  but the chances now appear sufficient to qualify as a potential Risk factor.

Areas of interest beginning Early Friday through late afternoon from west to east are shown below. The window of opportunity is quite narrow though but so be it.

SATURDAY: This day is a tough call, but will ride with what was written again yesterday- that  being chance of being very windy (Lake Wind Advisory Criteria) surface wind, cloudy across parts of the state as well and very cool with highs in the upper 50Fs and maybe a better breaking of clouds late in the day. 

The low pressure center associated with this system will be making the headlines in regard to snowfall for the Mid-Atlantic states northward as Florida will be 'suffering' the repercussions of post cold front blues. But will there be clouds? That is the big question for this day..they would be wrapping around the enlarging low pressure system as it pulls into station on the Mid-Atlantic region.

SUNDAY:  "Down we Go" plummets the mercury. Perhaps yet colder than this past event at least in regard to the wind chill factor realm.

Lows Sunday from Dead Central Northward tickling the freezing mark (far north) or mid-upper 30Fs, too hard to say for sure but lower 40Fs appears to be a given at least. Gusting winds over 25mph won't help.

Such conditions might well reach the immediate beaches as well north of  Sebastian Inlet.   

In short, there isn't much anything respectable to say for this coming weekend temperature wise and perhaps even cloud wise (Saturday).


Much warmer (though not exactly 'warm') but we'l take what we can get.

MEANWHILE: Next storm system approaches in the 27th Time Frame (Wednesday next week). 

Again as details change over time and from run to run the forecasts will as well, but at time the next system again appears might be a 'strong -severe risk carrier' featuring some form of a squall line in typical El Nino fashion. 

Though this is well far out in time, there might be silver-lining to this system. 

It's not shown so far to be  carrying the burden to Florida of unusually cold air, and is followed also by a string of warmer days. rather than shall we say, one? 

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Tuesday, January 19, 2016

Very Cool to Cold Through Sunrise Wednesday - Rain/Storms on Friday Afternoon

Coldest East Coast Morning in Quite Some Time - 43.8F on Location
 TODAY: As advertised, we've entered the coldest 24 hour stretch today since last winter with another cold to colder start some locations on Wednesday morning. NW wind today becoming north late and decreasing late in the day with highs in the mid-upper 50Fs except in the lower-mid 60Fs closer to and south of Lake Okeechobee. Cirrus clouds should be falling south slowly but surely with time with Central and North being all but cleared out or nearly so by sunset or shortly thereafter

TONIGHT: Decreasing wind as high pressure passes to the north of the state. Very Dry! Dewpoints are expected to fall potentially below 20F in some interior/western locations. Large temperature spreads by daybreak from immediate coast near Cape Canaveral and south through The Keys vs west of I-95.

WEDNESDAY: Possibly colder than this morning in some locations but less wind. Tomorrow morning looks like an Agricultural or temperature forecasters nightmare. With such low dewpoints how low can it go and for how long? Will there be enough moisture for a potentially damaging frost especially Interior North Central to down along Route 27 possibly as far south as northern Polk County? Probably not a big threat - but it will be interesting to see what occurs overnight tonight down the spine of the state and toward the west a bit. The other fly in the ointment is if higher clouds start to creep back north again as far north as Dead Central. It's going to be close on the frost forecasting end tonight it sure appears but suspect we'll be hearing about it..especially toward Western Orlando , North Tampa Bay area and then all areas further north.

Otherwise, immediate beach ( as in near A1A ) and east thereof and south to Miami through the Keys will be the warmest locations. Beaches of Brevard for example might be similar to this morning but by first appearance might be nearly 5F or more degrees warmer than this morning. It'll be tight though. 

Temperature just in from the coast rapidly falls out in the drier air. Air nearest the beaches might be feeling the effect of impending onshore flow and rapid air mass modification waiting in the wings right after sunrise. It'll all come down there to the location of high pressure to the north at the time of sunrise.

Wednesday afternoon warmer with highs 7-10F degrees warmer than today. Mainly lower to mid 60Fs.

THURSDAY: Warmer yet still all locations morning through sunset with highs in the mid-upper 60Fs with much increased moisture across the boards. Next storm system approaches as it builds momentum. Another Jet Streak dropping south from Canada along the Rockies takes the turn over Northern Texas and points toward Florida as the Southern Jet Streak's tail end continues across the state in El Nino fashion..

FRIDAY: Cold front approaches for what appears ATTM (at time) as a mid-afternoon arrival over Central Florida. Moisture return is shown to increase quickly overnight Thursday through time of front's arrival as the Two Jet Streaks start to merge nearly right over the state. Warm with highs in the 70Fs.

Friday's system will in no  way carry the weight of the previous system in regard to directional wind shear, though they winds aloft will get strong down to the 10.000 foot level they will be 'nearly' unidirectional (from the same direction) with height. So far using the NAM as the worst case scenario, though GFS will likely come in with much less dynamics at play especially in regard to CAPE (instability). Hard to see how much deep moisture could return so quickly as what the NAM alludes to (as of this morning at least).

Given the latest NAM, the forecast blog scenario is as follows for a brief window of opportunity.. or might say, 'window of misfortunality'...for strong storms across Central Florida if the timing doesn't change on the fronts arrival time.

 Otherwise, rain showers still likely in many areas which could carry some very gusty winds (which suspect might end up being what occurs anyway)

BEYOND: Quick frontal passage with strong wind behind the boundary through Saturday. Suspect we might be hearing about Lake Wind Advisories.

Saturday morning cold but how cold? Latest GFS implies a cloud deck wraps in at the lower mid-levels behind the front as a now full blown low pressure system slides up the U.S East Coast. The same low that is already putting the folks along the Mid-Atlantic to the Eastern Northeast States in a dizzy with the snow forecast expectancies. 

The main effect being a very cold, windy, and cloudy day with highs in the 50Fs but the cloud deck in regard to the morning hours would prevent lows from bottoming out as much as could be (assuming there will be said cloud deck).

SUNDAY: Could be even colder than today by several degrees. Jury is still out, but the GFS last came out showing upper 30Fs even for the east coast north of Sebastian Inlet with a bitter wind chill. This too might well change though given how far out in time we've come (Extended) by now.

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Sunday, January 17, 2016

Coolest Time of Year (Normally) to Live Up to Its Name Next 10 Days

Early Morning Cloud Formation Last Week
TODAY: Last of potential severe weather with at least two confirmed tornadoes having touched down south of Sarasota in Sarasota County is in the process of clearing the East Central Florida Coast with a severe thunderstorm warning currently in place of bloggers location as I type. 

Windy today with RAPID clearing though not bona-fide as some more clouds and even a sprinkle might work back into the picture on the back side of the developing yet departing surface low in the Atlantic . Colder air will be advecting southward behind the low with temperatures falling into the mid-upper 40Fs tonight to lower 50Fs far East Central and South.

MONDAY: Clearing and cool with much lighter wind but still a healthy 'breeze'. A secondary boundary will be crossing Florida after midnight Monday night which means colder Tuesday morning. 

 As a side bar note - the same system crossing Florida today might bring some snow to areas near the Coast to parts of the Mid-Atlantic and or North East states depending on close it passes the coast 'up North'  though that chance seems to have decreased a bit as of the latest GFS model run.


TUESDAY- WEDNESDAY: Appears between these two days will be the coldest period we've experienced in quite a while with mid-upper 30Fs possible Interior Central and equally as cold to colder further north. Immediate east coast could see lower 40Fs one or both mornings, more likely Tuesday morning along with winds near 20mph (wind chills will make it feel much colder). 

Might see frost warnings for Wednesday morning some locations though wind so far appears  will be too elevated for frost at this point.

Might never see 60F degrees North Half of state on Tuesday and just barely 60F Central Florida on Wednesday.

All eyes will be on the Mercury these two mornings.

If you're looking for really light winds, we will likely not see them until overnight Tuesday into Wednesday day break.

LATE WEDNESDAY: As high pressure passes to the north and east of Florida light easterly flow will gradually introduce some low level moisture to the east coast.

THURSDAY: Can introduce cloud cover and chance of showers east coast from Brevard South through Miami and noticeably warmer in the morning as next frontal boundary approaches, but even so it will still be very cool  with lows in lower-mid 50Fs and near 60F right at the coast south of Cape Canaveral as wind becomes more southeasterly.

FRIDAY: One warm day might eke out 70F before next front goes through. This boundary might go dry in some locations. Based on timing of its passage though some areas might reach 70F before it crosses the state. 

Current timing is prior to peak heating  which would mean we might see 70F one time before it again becomes colder   accompanied by once again, windy conditions.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY have the potential to be equally as cold as Tuesday/Wednesday if not just a bit colder. But warm up appears to be rather rapid going into Monday afternoon.

BEYOND INTO THE SUPER-EXTENDED: Going into February have eyes on more severe weather potentials but many factors will have to come into play. Reaching the time when we can have more prolonged warm ups and hence, more chance for instability if another storm system rolls across the Gulf which is entirely possible next month.

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Saturday, January 16, 2016

"Risk" of Severe CAT Winds / Quick Tornadic Spin Ups Before Daybreak Sunday

"A Very Cool Sunrise from Mid-Week" - Cape Canaveral, Florida
TODAY: Seeming benign weather during daylight hours, deceivingly so, will quickly transform as the atmospheric landscape undergoes rapid changes after sunset.

NOTE: *RISK   does not mean WILL OCCUR - Risk means 'risk'. Chances are some areas will experience severe weather however, overnight tonight.

Upper level disturbance passing across North Central Mexico will phase with the Northern Branch Jet dropping South roughly along the Rockies from Canada to Southern Texas to  develop a weak but rapidly strengthening surface low first just off the Texas SE Coast to traverse the Northern Gulf toward roughly the Cedar Key area of the Florida West Coast before day break Sunday.

Warmer waters of the Loop Current could play into some forecast glitches so have gone in favor of leaning more in going with model guidance and then adding a presumption for a bit stronger potential beyond what guidance and THE OFFICIAL Severe Weather Outlook by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is advertising as a safety precaution. 

Currently, the SPC has a Slight Risk for parts of the West Side and across South Florida, but for blogger purposes only -  will include all of the state generally south of a line running from near Brooksville to the Brevard/Volusia County line. 

Early Saturday Morning OUTLOOK from SPC (Storm Prediction Center)
 Blog purposes only outline a slightly larger area to include all areas in the
 Marginal SPC risk as Slight Risk . Areas south of the 'Green Line" below, could experience strong straight line winds, possibly some near severe as well, but the 'signals' were not convincing enough to included in a large 'severe' threat at this stage and early hour Saturday morning.

BLOG OUTLOOK with concern of a stronger Surface Low or perhaps one a bit further south
and/or higher DEWPOINT AIR reaching as far north
as the 'Mims area" toward the County Line of Brevard

Factors at play are more favorable for Severe Weather (in the wind category especially for a few reasons than for Friday's event ) when most reports came in with winds ranging through the 40s (mph) ..isolated stronger.

 Bulk shear to the lowest 5000 ft will be stronger, the Jet aloft will be even stronger as will all winds across other standard levels used for guidance. 

Lastly, during our previous event (yesterday) the state was under the left entrance region of the Jet (which is where sinking motions can occur aloft) but in the situation over-night  tonight the state will be under the Left Exit region of an up to a 160kt jet stream which maximizes divergence aloft producing a lifting mechanism necessary for upward vertical motions and storm growth/maintenance .  See below.

 That's right,  winds of up to 175 mph will be passing WELL overhead early tomorrow morning across North Florida which leaves Central in the Left Exit Region or 'Right Rear Quadrant"  of the departing Jet Max as a strengthening surface gale is taking shape in the eastern Gulf.

GFS forecast image for SURFACE WIND (in knots) as Low approaches. Realizing
this low will be NONEXISTENT only about 18 hours earlier (or nearly so)

Wind  well aloft at 200MB

As was the case with the previous event, the vastly limiting factor to a much larger threat will be lack of atmospheric instability in regard to  "Convective Available Potential Energy" (CAPE). Wind energy is already more than sufficient for a big severe weather event, but without the CAPE chances of severe storm coverage is greatly reduced.

Rainfall totals south of I-4 are not expected to be very high though a brief heavy downpour is still possible. Storm forward motion  will quickly go from near 20 mph to nearly 45-50mph forward motion between the hours of 3AM -5:30AM. The biggest 'tornado threat' might well be ahead of what could be a developing QLCS squall line or  squall line as was inferred in the previous post would be the case a few days ago.  Again, this will be a high shear, low Cape event. Brief tornadoes can occur along QLCS squall lines that can be nearly impossible to foresee in advance by radar as being 'likely to occur'.

TIME FRAME: The Time Frame for 'Potential Risks" will begin around 3AM West Coast but quickly spread to East coast regions by 4:15AM. If there is a squall line type feature, there is still a risk of a quick tornado spin up well ahead of 'supposed squall line' mainly along the east coast south of Cape Canaveral toward Central Palm Beach County and along the West coast. 

Almost all 'significant weather that will or even won't occur' will have cleared the area by 7:30-8:00 AM Central and a bit later South Florida. Clearing skies to follow especially by mid-afternoon.

ALSO: A period of stronger, gusty surface wind with gusts over 32 mph  maybe even near 40 mph possible for a time late morning into Sunday afternoon as the low moves away and becomes a full blow gale passing near to just west of Bermuda.

OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT: Cooler air will follow this system but nothing much cooler that it is this morning. The colder air is to follow on the heals of a secondary trough to pass to the north of Florida unbeknownst to the 
'earth-bounders' . 

Monday will be cool with still some wind with highs in the lower-mid 60Fs, a bit like it was on Wednesday and Thursday earlier this week. That is, a bit below normal for this time of year.

TUESDAY: Colder air advection coupled with much drier air might well set the stage for the coldest 24 hour period this season for TUESDAY with highs struggling to reach mid-50Fs north of line from North Tampa Bay to Cape Canaveral. Areas closer to and north of I4 might never see 55F degrees on Tuesday.   Freezing temperatures though are not expected but perhaps North Florida and interior parts of far North Central and northern West Central. Lows closer to base-camp (Cape Canaveral) might reach below the allusive 46F threshold which has yet to occur this season.

WEDNESDAY MORNING is when coolest temperatures will be just in from the immediate coast from the Cape and South but colder north. Wednesday morning might be even a bit warmer for Brevard and South than Tuesday but inland a different story where it will be 'about the same'..though a few degrees warmer might make the difference between frost and no frost for agricultural interests though . Wind will be light this day though and air mass recovery to warmer will commence after dark Wednesday evening.

THURSDAY: Warmer for a good 48 hours before next front approaches. The next two systems will pass north of Florida meaning the severe weather threat will not exist again for quite a while. 

Though there is a chance of showers perhaps later in the week for parts of the east coast suspect that chance might 'go away'... the better chances do not arrive (so far as shown) until sometime  around the 26th of the month. 

All in all then, after tomorrow morning this active weather phase we've been in will be over for a while. 

"February" might be a different story, however.

Relatively Rare Non-crested Kelvin-Helmholtz wave clouds near Cape Canaveral

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Wednesday, January 13, 2016

Chance of "Inclement" Weather Early Friday

Exploration Tower - Cape Canaveral, Florida
TODAY THRU THURSDAY: Continued cool today with more clouds. Latest satellite imagery shows a continuous stream of high and some mid clouds associated with the Southern Branch Jet flowing overhead with no end in site. Cloud cover will temper afternoon highs today, so probably will not be as warm as yesterday was . In case there is any doubt concerning cloud cover...see below:


This is the period of concern and in question which all eyes are focused on. A weak surface low will be forming in the Western Gulf as an upper level circulation and associated energy field (vorticity) progresses from west to east from the Baja and across Mexico. It appears the surface reflection (weak low) will be picked up by the upper level feature and create a better organized system to move ENE to eventually NE along the northern Gulf Coast from Southern Louisiana toward North Georgia. 

Meanwhile, big changes in store for Florida overnight Thursday night. 

The GFS and to some degree the NAM have come into agreement that a 'pseudo-warm front will form then lift north from South Florida.

 Most discussions concerning that boundary take the boundary north of I-10, but for blog purposes will state that it appears the 'true warm front' will remain near to south of I-4. 

The other would be an 'elevated warm front' at 2000ft AGL (Above Ground Level) which makes it much further norht. This is shown in the following image - and reflects only what the latest guidance has shown. Chances are, this will change several more times.

Otherwise, it appears there will be two areas of 'concern' regarding the overall scheme of things. 

Toward North Florida is where the most rain might fall in association with one vorticity max. Another might be further south to cross 'somewhere Central Florida". Rainfall further south might get very heavy, but the fast storm/shower motions should prevent there from being any large accumulations in this area.

If there is that secondary vort max further south, it will pass over head the more 'surface based warm front' laying across 'somewhere Central Florida".
By experience, this boundary is often forecast to lift further north than it actually does, but will ride with the Central Dividing line (show below).

 There is no question that ample shear: bulk/directional - will be overhead but instability is sorely lacking at least at first. 

Low CAPE/high shear is typical in the winter months during severe weather events - and the 'worst' weather usually occurs along these 'pseudo-warm fronts' where helicity is maximized along with the higher dew points along and south of that boundary. 

Coastal Martin to Brevard are areas of interest as are coastal areas of SW Florida toward Cedar Key/ Brooksville regions since over night Thursday night solid SSE winds will form and advect warmer Gulf Stream relate air up the coast. Thus, some surprise showers with maybe even thunder could occur well in advance of where eyes are focused on. These too, are worth mention which would occur before sunrise (after midnight). 

 Storms, if any, could rapidly change character if so within about 20 miles of the east coast especially as the wind fields aloft will be quickly changing character (strength and direction in a short time frame between midnight and 7AM Friday morning).

So far, best chances for 'severe' type weather would be for the east coast from 4AM -10AM in possibly two separate scenarios to unfold as the surface trough approaches form the west. 

The biggest threat is wind which could gust well in excess of 60 mph (would it be too much to gander a  random report over 75 mph?)  though a tornado cannot be ruled out, especially near the surface warm front and/or close to the east coast from Cape Canaveral and south toward Ft Pierce.

NOTING: The Storm Prediction Center and NWS Offices are watching for 'severe' in their wordings, though SPC is taking the much more conservative approach, mentioning only thunder and possibly an isolated quick tornado. Overall, it appears parts of the state might fall under what is termed a "Marginal Risk" due to the low instability situation and isolated nature of any 'severe' storm like activities.

The system will swiftly move through and the 'all clear' might be heralded by noon time Friday with brisk winds to follow and actually warmer temperatures than recent days (70Fs). 

Another system is in the cache though for early Sunday. This one too, will be tricky. Suspect some of the moisture will be scoured out by the first system; but on the other hand, some of the wind fields are almost more impressive than the first. 

Looks like a situation for 'gusty rainfall' though it does have a bit of a 'squall line (ish)' signature on it.

BEYOND EARLY SUNDAY: Much cooler going into Tuesday through Thursday, after Sunday late morning as winds become westerly and gusty..cooler air is to follow though similar to recent days for a good stretch. 

How cool remains in question, but some freezing temperatures north of I-4 are not totally out of the question as was the case just recently. 

Further south from Cape Canaveral downward, much like what was just experienced and is being attested to this morning.

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Sunday, January 10, 2016

Eye of Caution On Late Week: Very Cool Monday-Wednesday

Global Forecast System (GFS) Depiction (Aloft at 20,000Ft) Early Wednesday
Afternoon - By Thursday Evening .....Story line near bottom of this post

TODAY: Frontal boundary moving through Central Florida early afternoon. As of noon time the front was lying across "Central Direct", 'Dead Central"..."The Central Dividing Line" take your choice (terms used for blogger's purposes). 

Boundary progresses through South Florida into this evening to lay out eventually just south of the Florida Straits. Meanwhile, drier and 'much' cooler air lags behind until overnight as does clearing skies. Expect the remainder of the day to stay cloudy as visible satellite imagery shows no clearing in site the whole way to Mexico upstream heading this way.  Hard to imagine it will ever  clear out by l, though whether Central or South Florida will ever see pristinely-crystalline clear skies might be a bit in question as all areas might at least continue to see thin veils of cirrus streaks overhead.

Frontal boundary across "Dead Central" at Noon,  Sunday January `10th

RECAP OF SATURDAY: A tornado did touch down in SW Cape Coral. Images below and text as well . Photos on line showed some cars turned over and tossed a bit on top of debris. Tornado was not 'light-weight' by any means and from what I've heard might rank as an EF-2 on the Intensity scale after official damage assessments are complete (if they are not already)



Radar showing storms approaching SW Florida Prior to Tornado Event

MONDAY: Less cloudiness and much cooler with a low close to 48-51F eastern Brevard County and south toward interior Dade County (where it will be warmer) and through the keys in the typically warmer locations this season as has been pointed out time and time again in many previous posts. Other locations toward interior Central toward SW Florida and north will bottom out closer to the mid-upper 40Fs. A secondary 'perturbation in the flow pattern is headed mainly toward South Florida on Tuesday.

TUESDAY: Guidance shows the very shallow surface boundary to remain well south of Central Florida and most of South Florida as well, however at around 2000 ft the boundary does lift an 'elevated warm-front like situation. Expect much cloudiness in association with this interaction of a disturbance over-running that boundary with possibly some light rain as far north as Cape Canaveral but more like much further south toward Ft Pierce-West Palm to Miami mostly on the east side of the state. All in all, Tuesday remains very cool temperature wise into the afternoon along with that chance of creasing cloud coverage if not some rain especially south of Brevard County.

WEDNESDAY: After passage of disturbance a second surge of colder air moves down the state with NW winds a bit more elevated that for our comfort zones. So far, Wednesday morning appears might well be the coldest morning of the season for many areas though not quite as cold as earlier forecasts were crying out for.  But coupled with that will be some rather brisk winds. Lower-mid 40Fs might be found in many locations along and north of I-4 with upper 40Fs to lower 50Fs immediate east coast  from the Cape and south; but this will all be very short lived as we moved toward Thursday and eye a rapidly evolving and problematic situation (potentially).


Enter in now the next threat of potentially severe weather. Guidance for the past 3 GFS runs  is showing wind fields that look nearly down-right 'evil and wicked'..with strong speed shear and directional sheer resulting in large looping hodographs as will be shown here further down in the post.  

The cyclonic curvature of the wind fields with height coupled by up to 60-70 kts bulk shear and even moderate shear in the lower to mid levels of the atmosphere are not kids stuff by any means (in regard for severe weather producing potentialities). 

Instability though at this point is showing to be very weak, but who cares. You don't mess with the wind fields being shown by the GFS at this point in time.

Do note, however, that the NWS offices are all eyeing this upcoming late week and monitoring any potential situation with great skill level. 

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) so far is not even making a statement about late week (which seems a bit odd) but regardless I expect you might hear your TV broadcaster making mention of this possible severe weather setup in the next day or two if the trend of the GFS continues and it and the European model come into better agreement which for now is not happening. 

The threat 'area' so far has been    "somewhere near to south of I - 4"

Also to observe, the time frame we are looking at is late Thursday afternoon through the wee hours of Friday morning well after dark. Those late night hours can make things even more difficult from a forecaster perspective as well as a safety issue for the general public.

 But that is not all, a secondary 'system' could be moving in about 36 hours behind the first. How this all might eventually come together though is way too soon to say. Even yet still, out in the far  "magic eight-ball future" the GFS shows another equally as potent system moving toward Florida around Day 9 or 10 from now. 

In short, looks like the next 'family of waves' with this next Atmospheric Set of waves moving in might be a bit more problematic and even more difficult to forecast than the previous one, at least in regards to the way it really matters most.  Comfort and well as 'inconveniences".. on another note though, no cold air is shown with any of this upcoming activity until after the last 'family member' departs into the Western Atlantic.

What that means is ..Monday through Wednesday rather cold, but end of story for a while.

Hodographs like this one shown are a signal for a high degree of caution and only seen across Florida  in Winter to early spring during severe weather events..remembering this is only a forecast..and rather far out in time one at that at this stage. Could very easily change and go away almost entirely.

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