"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Saturday, September 12, 2015

Rare Chance of Early September Severe Storms Today

Rare Early September Sky Could Be Prelude to Rare Storms This Afternoon - Possibly

TODAY: Odd to be speaking of 'bulk shear in the mid-upper levels' this time of year but indeed such is the case today. Usually such terminology is reserved over Florida for mid-Winter through mid-Spring (in relation to a storm potential) - that combined with anticipated Moderate Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) which is small to totally absent in the winter months will both co-exist today in a very moist atmosphere. Additionally, there is the smallest of chances a side shore sea breeze component could manifest from Brevard County and south , perhaps even a bit further north which in the presence of warm ocean temperatures could add a 'bang for the buck' near the east coast - or even off shore for boating interests. 

The net effect is for a chance of 'severe storms' today with wind gusts in excess of 58 mph - apart from said activity gusty winds  could otherwise occur even in fast moving rain showers or near them. 

On the other hand, high level cloudiness and 'not all that cold aloft ' temperatures at 500mb preclude a better certainty of 'severe' type activity. There is a chance of earlier storms going up west side resulting in dense cloud cover across the Interior and East coast which put the squash on severe weather though the RAP and NAM guidance models are both showing some decent vertical velocities (VVs) near the east coast from Brevard south through Indian river counties after 2-3pm.  

 Areas south of Brevard are not under the Bulk Shear components though might have better instability than further north. The 'strong-severe' chance/threat should be working south and east with time into the mid-afternoon. This does not 'guarantee' severe storms everywhere, though at time it does appear that some areas might well experience at least a stronger than the norm storm today.

 A few showers might 'pop' prior to the best chance of heavier rainfall as well south of I-4 into South Florida almost any time from late morning on. Rainfall totals might not be all that large due to faster storm motions.

Though not in the 'red lines' for 'possible severe'..watching blue areas too (blog purposes only)
SUNDAY: Boundary of front to slide into Central or South Central during the day but the upper level kicker-energy will have passed well east of the state and out to sea. There might still be cloud cover to hold down highs into the 80Fs but continued humid as usual. Best chance for storms might be Eastern Portions of South Central and South Florida though a few  showers possible south of I-4 at almost any time.

MONDAY-BEYOND: Onshore flow slowly develops into Tuesday as noted yesterday. Moisture continues. Suspect temperatures along the east coast might vary by less than 10 degrees for several days as ocean temperatures are still in the lower 80Fs for the most part and as a result, 24 hour temperature variations will be minimal.   Shower chances continue ..for almost anytime east coast with thunder more likely interior and western portions of the state.

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