"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Thursday, June 12, 2014

Storms Again This Afternoon

Thunderstorm Approaching Cape Canaveral on Wednesday
TODAY: Very tricky blog post today. A large cluster of showers and thunderstorms moved across South Florida in the very wee hours of the morning spreading a variety of clouds across South and Central Florida. Models have been showing close to no showers or storms at all today as a result, but as evidenced by peeking outside , the cloud coverage quickly moved out post haste and the atmosphere is in quick recovery mode as of noon time. A severe thunderstorm warning away from that overnight activity near Tally is currently in place, with some other activity near Gainesville even at this hour (12:10pm). 

With clouds clearing but some more high clouds on the way for parts of Central, it still looks like storms would be possible today, some strong just about anywhere but mainly near the East Coast and where outflow/lake breeze interactions occur. The air aloft is not as cold as models had depicted it would be so the chance of actual severe storms is minimal, though some pulse severe are always possible. 

The main hazards will be localized nuisance flooding especially for areas that have been getting consecutive days of hefty rainfall totals, and lightning.  Perhaps some small hail as well after 4:30pm especially. Suspect that for heavier storms moving off shore there would be some Special Marine Warnings issued, and the chance of waterspouts can't be totally tossed out today .

What not to be doing when cloud to ground lightning is imminent.  (perhaps the blogger should take that advice as well)

Strong storm chances was broad brushed as it was opted that model forecasts are useless today. Watch for a boundary to work south from North Florida as occurred yesterday which might have some impact on Volusia, Brevard, Orange, Seminole, Osceola and Lake Counties   for greater coverage. The Lake Okeechobee breeze could also play in today
See Notes above under image: Also to mention, the east coast sea breeze should remain pegged very close to the beaches today with steering from the WSW-SW near 15 knots, storms would have no problem moving off shore, but winds just above ground appear light enough and the pressure gradient at the surface is not too strong to all out remove any chance of a sea breeze today. Activity might get going just a bit later than yesterday Central Florida along the east coast, and even later South Florida which as can be seen above completely cleared out after all.

BEYOND: Looks like a chance of storms as well on Friday and into Saturday with better chances of sea breeze convergence storms  from the coasts on Saturday but if not then, on Sunday.  Still watching the GFS doing it's thing with the Tropics as mentioned yesterday, the overnight model run actually showed a near hurricane over the state in about two weeks, but just prior to that it showed a tropical storm heading to Texas, so will ignore the antics until the time comes. It is hurricane season afterall.

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