"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Tuesday, August 19, 2014

Name That Tune

"You Askin' Me?!"

TODAY: Dry pattern in place at least through Friday though models differ significantly on both where and when and in what form (strength of storms) the rains will be in a broad sense of the words.

But for today, most models already busted up near I-10 where some showers that are 'not supposed to be there' are now occurring. And in the model where they are occuring they are doing so further south, or in other words per that model, they are not there. But extrapolation of current events combined with satellite llop interpretation wihtou trying to make too many forward guesses (suppsedly educated)..would mean a chance of an Isolated storm or at least..a patch of cloud cover toward Central Florida very late if not toward to after sunset though after sunset would not jive with consistency of late. That said, a  graphic might tell the story a litlee better and even this can't cover the bases. Might be easier just to say that the least likely place for showers today is all of Central, esp. west central.

WEDNESDAY: In General we can go with the 2-Day pattern philosophy and so that outside of extremely extenuating circumstances , tomorrow will be similar to today but probably even drier on the state wide basis..or will it? In looking at the latest North American Model (NAM) it is implying that it will be quite dry but what's that on Thursday?

THURSDAY: In general, guidance agrees on the main synoptic scale mid-upper level features with a mid level trough crossing Florida along the eastern side mainly over-riding a surface high pressure area building into the Dixie Southeast, while the surface trough is nowhere to be found below it being fully absorbed by that pesky High that will be with us for at least a solid week. 

Yet, with the passage of the upper level feature temperatures around 8000 -12000 feet cool pretty well (?). ..The NAM is showing some really good CAPE (instability) on Thursday and strong vertical mid level velocities along East Central which would mean an isolated strong to severe storm late day toward Southern Brevard, Eastern Osceola, Indian River to interior Volusia County in general with more showers/storms further north. On the other hand, the GFS imposes no such animal so we'll see. But side bar, this blogger has paid little head to the NAM model beyond one day for over a year now, as it simply fails all too often (at least in the local sense).

FRIDAY-WEEKEND: Though moisture will increase eventually most activity might only be realized inland to the west side of the state due to the storm steering currents (wind direction aloft). That means, dry for the far east side of the state up and down the coast for QUITE some time. The first truly dry spell almost all summer is in progress perhaps. But when will it end? Sea breeze convergence activity is in no way shown out into September at this rate, except for perhaps the west side which is a good two weeks. We'll see. 

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